Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 141045

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
345 AM MST Mon May 14 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions this week. Warmer temperatures will
occur by midweek then daytime temperatures returning closer to
seasonal normals Friday into next weekend.


.DISCUSSION...Still a few clouds this morning across Cochise county
otherwise the sky was clear. Water vapor imagery this morning
showed upper low over Nevada, which has been over this area much
of this past weekend. A moderate pressure gradient over southeast
Arizona, associated with this low, will continue to bring breezy
to locally windy conditions this afternoon. Highs today will be
similar to Sunday. Gradient relaxes tonight as the upper low

Upper ridging builds over the area Tuesday into Wednesday with
warmest temperatures of this week occurring Wednesday and
Thursday. Another upper level trof moving into the western CONUS
late in the week for another round of gusty southwest winds along
with cooler temperatures near normal.


.AVIATION...Valid through 15/12Z.
CLR to few clouds above 15k ft AGL thru valid pd. Surface wind
thru 14/15z sely/sly 5-10 kts then becoming swly 12-18 kts with
gusts to 25 kts. Wind diminishing after 15/03z. Aviation
Discussion not updated for amended TAFs.


.FIRE WEATHER...Gusty southwest winds again this afternoon with
isolated areas across mainly Cochise county seeing a hour or two
of Red flag conditions. Otherwise dry conditions with occasional
afternoon gusts will prevail this week. A gradual daily warming
trend will occur through Thursday followed by temperatures
returning closer to seasonal normals next weekend.





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