Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 090120 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
620 PM MST Sun Dec 8 2019

Allowed wind advisory to expire as scheduled and keeping winter
weather advisories intact. Adjusted some weather grids mainly later
this week to better agree with temperature forecasts, otherwise no
changes at this time. Updated ZFP just transmitted.


.PREV DISCUSSION...421 PM MST Sun Dec 8 2019...
Mts obscured in areas of MVFR to IFR cigs/vsbys in rain and mt snow
as well as lcl br/fg/fzfg wrn and central NM. In addition, a short
lived tstm possible nw NM and west central NM before 09/12Z. From the
east slopes of the central mt chain over the ern plains, gusty wly
winds to around 35 kts to persist until around 09/12Z with VFR
conditions. Upper low to move to vcnty far sw NM by 09/23Z with
improving conditions over nw/west central NM but sfc high pressure
pushing into the ern plains will set up potential for wdly sct
showers over that area.


.PREV DISCUSSION...247 PM MST Sun Dec 8 2019...
Pacific moisture continues to sweep rain, high elevation snow, wind,
and cooler temperatures into central and western portions of the
state into tonight. Moderate to heavy snowfall will favor the
western slopes of the of the west-central and northern mountains. The
rain and snow showers shift southward during the day on Monday.
Sunshine and warmer temperatures return from mid-week through the
early part of the weekend.


Stronger westerly flow aloft has moved overhead, resulting in a lee
side surface low/cyclogenesis over far northeast NM and strengthening
west winds. These increasing winds will result in a decrease in rain
chances in valley locations of western and central thanks to
downsloping effects tonight and Monday. Elsewhere along west facing
slopes of the western and northern mountains, expect orographic snow
to continue at times tonight into Monday morning, tapering off during
the afternoon. Meanwhile, the upper- level trough responsible for
the deep tropical moisture tap is forecast to deepen and develop into
a close low near the bootheel Monday. Most rain and high mountain
snow will be south of the forecast area in southern Catron and
Lincoln counties as well as southwest Chaves County Monday into
Monday night. High temperatures will remain below average Monday with
overnight lows above average tonight and near seasonal averages
Monday night.

The upper-level trough swinging through just to the south of New
Mexico (through old Mexico) will shift the focus of rain and snow
showers to the eastern slopes of the Sacramento Mountains.
Accumulations will be light, before the storm system shifts out of
the state by afternoon. It doesn`t look there is a chance for any
frozen precipitation, according to forecast soundings around 12z
Tuesday. Otherwise, temperatures will be near to above normal across
the Land of Enchantment.

A ridge of high pressure will cross the state Wednesday with daytime
several degrees above normal. A weak, moisture-starved upper-level
trough arrives Thursday with nothing more than a few degree drop in
temperatures ; The GFS ensemble showing a slightly deeper closed
low. Dry NW flow Friday and Saturday will lead to highs mainly in
the 50s and 60s across the central and eastern portions of the state.
However, some stronger winds may exist along and east of the central
mountain chain. GFS and ECMWF ensemble members agree to some degree
that an upper- level trough will cross the NM/CO border, increasing
chances for precipitation Saturday night into Sunday.



Wetting precipitation across much of western and central NM will
keep forest fire weather concerns to a minimum through the work
week. A dry Pacific cold front remains on track to move through NM
Wednesday, bringing cooler temperatures along with increasing
northwest to northerly breezes. The remainder of the week remains
dry with temperatures near seasonal averages. The potential for a
cold storm system to move in from the northwest continues for next



Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM MST Monday for the following
zones... NMZ210-211-213-214-221.

Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST Monday for the following
zones... NMZ202-206.


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