Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 261130 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
430 AM MST Wed Feb 26 2020

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist through the TAF
period with mostly light winds.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...251 AM MST Wed Feb 26 2020...
.SYNOPSIS...
After a very cold start to the morning, plenty of sunshine and less
wind will make several to 10 degrees of warming feel like more. The
warming trend intensifies Thursday with highs 10 to as much as 20
degrees warmer than today. The warming trend continues Friday and
Saturday with westerly breezes aiding in the warming process in the
Rio Grande Valley and across the eastern plains. Slightly cooler
conditions along with increasing winds move in Sunday and Monday.
Chances for rain and mountain snow enter the forecast for the
northwest third of the state Sunday, increasing Sunday night into
Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
A very cold airmass has overtaken the area, with the 00Z KABQ
upper air sounding showing an impressive -33C at 500mb. However,
a warming trend is forecast the remainder of the week with slowly
increasing pressure heights, dry northwest flow aloft and plenty of
sunshine. Today`s highs will still be 5-15 degrees below normal, but
highs will reach back to near normal by Thursday. Breezy northwest
winds are expected by Thursday afternoon given warmer temperatures
and improved mixing.

LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
Dry northwest flow aloft Thursday night and Friday morning will
transition to westerly as a relatively flat ridge translates in from
the west. A significant warming trend remains on tap for Friday and
Saturday with high temperatures ranging from 5 to 15 degrees above
average for late February. Saturday continue to look the warmest day
of the next 7 thanks to a lee side surface low resulting in moderate
west winds and downsloping effects for the RGV and eastern plains.

GFS and ECMWF are slowly coming in line with one another regarding
the next Pacific trough/closed low to impact NM. Relatively moist
southwest flow aloft moves over Saturday night and Sunday with a few
light showers possible for the Chuska and Tusas Mountains mainly
Sunday. A few light showers may spill eastward to the northern
Sangres late-day Sunday into Sunday night. Snow levels will be rather
high (above ~8500 feet) Sunday morning, lowering slightly by Sunday
night. Late Sunday night into Monday, models agree that the trough
over CA and the northwest Great Basin drops south and closes off over
central CA. The associated baroclinic zone (mid-level cold front) and
associated rain and snow sets up over the northeast third to half of
NM Monday morning. The positive tilt of the trough/closed low will
mostly likely result in a weakening baroclinic zone and a discombobulated
precipitation field by Monday night. In other words, at this point
in time it appears that this system will result in light
precipitation amounts to the northwest third to half of the state
Monday and Monday night.

GFS and ECMWF forecast diverge after Tuesday. GFS keeps the next
trough well north of NM while ECWMF brings another cold trough/closed
low into the Northern Rockies and Eastern Great Basin mid-week next
week. Convection in the EPAC is quiet which would lead credence to
the GFS solution. After all, it may now be the model to beat in the
extended period after its recent upgrade.

11/33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A very cold and dry airmass will linger over the state today, but a
warming trend is forecast through late week with daytime
temperatures reaching above normal areawide by Saturday. Vent rates
will improve Thursday, but dip back down Friday as an upper level
ridge moves east over the state. Look for improved  mixing and vent
rates over the weekend given increasing westerlies with the
approach of an upper level trough/low. Although the latest medium
range model solutions disagree on the placement and amplification of
upper air features across the southwest US next week, there is
potential for two systems to impact the state and bring a couple
rounds of wetting precipitation.

11

&&


.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$


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