Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 121126 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
526 AM MDT Mon Apr 12 2021

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
A front has entered the eastern half of New Mexico and is spilling
into the Rio Grande valley early this morning. Winds will continue to
gust to 25 to 35 kt near KABQ as winds surge through the canyons
east of the city, and an Airport Weather Warning remains in effect
through the late morning. Winds should fall back to the breezy
category by afternoon with wind directions gradually veering with a
southerly component in many locales. Mid level cloudiness will
increase in the afternoon with a few high-based light showers of virga
(evaporating rainfall) developing over central New Mexico. East
canyon winds will then surge into central areas again tonight with
KABQ potentially gusting to 35 to 45 kt.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...306 AM MDT Mon Apr 12 2021...
.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler weather has arrived across eastern NM this morning, expected
to last through at least Wednesday. The accompanying uptick in
moisture in combination with an upper level system north of the
region will increase chances showers and stray storms favoring the
northern mountains Tuesday. Dry westerlies shunt shower chances
eastward towards TX Wednesday and Thursday, but the next backdoor
cold front expected to arrive sometime Friday pushes shower and storm
chances back westward into the Rio Grande Valley and western NM by
next weekend. Temperature wise, cooler temperatures will reign across
the east, while warmer temperatures reign across western NM through
the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
A backdoor cold front has entered the eastern half of NM early this
morning with impressive pressure rises building behind it. The
boundary produced some strong to briefly severe gusts in the eastern
plains and these are translating farther west, albeit moderated, with
a surge into the Rio Grande valley also underway. Some gusts of 35
to 40 mph cannot be ruled out through the late morning hours in the
areas of eastern Albuquerque typically prone to gap winds. The canyon
winds in central parts of the state are expected to temporarily
relax to more of a breezy status by this afternoon, veering to more
of a south southeasterly direction, and winds in the plains will also
have decreased in speed by this time. The front brought in
relatively higher dewpoints, but readings are still only in the teens
and 20s, too dry to generate any frontogenetically driven
precipitation or low stratus clouds. High temperatures will feel the
effects though, running some 5 to 10 degrees below normal in the
eastern plains today with only a few degrees of cooling also
occurring in central zones. In the mid to upper levels of the
troposphere there will also be a weak, but still noteworthy,
perturbation ushering in mid level moisture. Central NM forecast
soundings for this afternoon advertise a few inverted-V profiles that
suggest altocumulus/altostratus may produce a few high- based virga
showers. This activity would slowly dwindle and shift toward and just
east of the central mountain chain this evening.

Surface high pressure will build stronger down the central to
southern plains of the nation tonight, imposing a synoptic easterly
flow over much of the eastern half of NM. This will lead to another,
potentially stronger gap/canyon wind tonight in the Albuquerque
metro area with speeds possibly flirting with advisory levels for a
few hours in some areas.

Into the daytime Tuesday, the winds will veer more southerly with a
general large scale faint confluence over NM by late in the day. A
relaxed moisture gradient will consequently be present with
dewpoints lower in the western zones (in the teens and 20s) and
higher (in the 20s and low 30s) in eastern zones. The cooler,
stable airmass in the eastern half will be contrasted by more
unstable conditions in north central and far western zones. Also by
this time, the next upper low will be dropping into NV with west
southwest flow aloft over NM, and this could set the stage for some
weakly forced showers and thunderstorms, mainly over the north
central high country and northwestern zones Tuesday afternoon.

LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
The long term begins with surface return flow bringing Gulf moisture
into southeastern NM while a jet max rotates around a ~550dm H5 low
into the Four Corners region Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
This will keep showers and perhaps a stray storm going over the
northern mountains while low clouds and perhaps some drizzle and fog
will favor the Caprock in and around Clovis/Portales toward Roswell.
The jet max exits northeastward over the CO Rockies allowing for a
stray shot at another round of showers/storms over the Sangre de
Cristos Wednesday afternoon with continued southeasterly upslope
flow at the surface. But models are showing continued agreement that
a dry slot will follow the upper level feature shutting down any
convective hopes for the Tusas and Jemez Mountains. Meanwhile, the
cooler boundary layer air across the eastern plains continues to look
to be capped through the day with the only question being when the
low cloud deck will dissipate.

Thursday sees the larger upper low over the Great Basin begin to make
its way eastward with another round of dry westerlies pushing the low
level moisture over eastern NM toward the TX border. Leaned toward
the consistently cooler CONSALL for MaxTs over eastern NM given the
expected low cloud bank, especially Thursday with the GFS showing a
stream of high level clouds also blanketing much of the forecast area
south of I-40. The center of the low passes north of the state near
to the CO border early Friday morning, with the next backdoor cold
front surging through eastern NM sometime Friday. However, forecast
confidence in timing remains low, and thus daytime highs and
precipitation chances remain in question across eastern NM Friday.
East canyon winds into the Rio Grande Valley will follow this
backdoor front as it surges toward the continental divide Saturday
morning. The enhanced low level moisture in combination with an upper
level feature diving down into AZ will increase chances for
precipitation finally reaching western NM. However, model agreement
on the evolution of this system is very different, and thus trended
PoPs lower than NBM. Overall, chances for precipitation during the
next 7 days has consistently trended lower for each day of the week
over the past 72 hours.

52/24

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The weather pattern is undergoing some undulations and changes as
evidenced by this mornings cold front that introduced an abrupt
change in winds with gusty conditions and falling temperatures in
the eastern half of the state. This brought on an increase in
dewpoints and RH with gusty canyon winds in central areas this
morning. After slacking later this afternoon, a resurgence of
easterly canyon winds is then expected again tonight. While cool,
stable air holds over the eastern half of NM on Tuesday, western
areas of the state will remain drier and a bit more unstable. Winds
will turn gusty along and near the continental divide, and drier air
will be juxtaposed over the southwestern high country where a few
hours of spotty critical fire weather conditions seem likely Tuesday
afternoon. However, the fairly spotty nature of these critical
conditions will preclude the issuance of any Fire Weather Watch at
this time. Meanwhile showers and thunderstorms will also develop in
north central to northwestern zones Tuesday.

More widespread concerns are beginning to build for Wednesday as
drier air punches into western zones while eastern areas retain the
relatively higher moisture, setting up a north-south oriented
dryline over the state to divide the differing airmasses. Southwest
winds will also be increasing in areas west of the continental
divide where Fire Weather Watches could be a possibility from future
shifts. The dry air will advance a bit farther east on Thursday,
spreading critical conditions into the Rio Grande and perhaps into
the central highlands. A respite from the critical fire weather
threat would then be expected to arrive Friday and more-so into the
weekend as another cold front backs into the state.

52

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$



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