Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 172359 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
559 PM MDT Wed Oct 17 2018

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
An increase in low-level Gulf moisture from west TX will move across
the eastern plains and the central highlands tonight, where light
rain, MVFR visibility and IFR to LIFR ceilings are expected to
develop early this evening and persist through mid morning Thursday.
MVFR ceilings are expected at KABQ, KAEG and KSAF after midnight
tonight, while areas to the west should maintain VFR cigs between
040 and 070. East canyon winds will gust to between 15 and 25 knots
early this evening, slowly decreasing overnight and into Thursday
morning.

33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...245 PM MDT Wed Oct 17 2018...
.SYNOPSIS...
Unusually cool and moist conditions will persist through tomorrow as
an upper level low pressure system moves slowly to the northeast
across the region. Winds will gradually diminish overnight and be
much less tomorrow compared to the past couple of days. Cloudy
conditions with drizzle and fog will prevail across much of eastern
New Mexico Thursday, with a few showers possible across western
portions of the state. Look for some improvement Friday into Saturday
as a weak front moves south across the state. Moisture will increase
Sunday into Monday as a Pacific trough slowly approaches from the
west. Look for increasing rain chances early to mid next week as the
Pacific trough approaches and moves over the state.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The upper low is currently along the UT/AZ border per the latest
water vapor satellite imagery, with dry air rounding the base of the
trough moving northeast across much of New Mexico. This dry layer
of the atmosphere shows up nicely in the nearby 12Z upper air
soundings with a pronounced mid level inversion. This explains the
lack of convection across the area today, instead favoring very low-
topped showers or drizzle/light rain. This will continue to be the
case overnight with more drizzle or light rain forecast, especially
across the eastern plains and along the east slopes of the central
mountain chain. Added fog to the forecast as well, with a gradual
erosion of the frontal layer expected going into Thursday. Winds will
gradually diminish overnight as well and will be much lower Thursday
compared to the past couple of days. The Wind Advisory for the west
central highlands and lower/middle Rio Grande Valley will expire at
6PM this evening, but may need to be extended for a couple more hours
given the latest MOS guidance for KABQ.

The upper low will continue to weaken, then open up and pull out of
the Rockies Friday, bringing a weak front into northern New Mexico.
The front will get reinforced Friday night into Saturday and progress
southwest across the state, bringing a return of gusty east
canyon/gap winds into the Rio Grande and Upper Tularosa Valleys.
However, winds won`t be nearly as strong as the current event. After
a fairly quiet period Friday/Saturday, moisture advection will begin
Sunday in advance of a slow and weak upper level trough. This trough
will impact much of the Desert Southwest and New Mexico with showers
and perhaps a few storms early to mid next week before moving east
into the southern US plains by late Wednesday.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
An upper low over southern UT will move slowly northward tonight, as
a strong ridge of surface high pressure builds westward from west TX
across eastern NM. This will keep northern and central NM in a moist
low level flow tonight with light rain and drizzle east of the
central mountains. Wetting rainfall amounts will be most likely
across the southeast plains and adjacent highlands. Relative
humidity recovery will be very high tonight with values ranging from
80 to 100 percent. The pattern will change little on Thursday with
light east to southeast flow across the region, and light rain and
drizzle east of the central mountains. Ventilation rates will be
poor across most of the area Thursday, though a few pockets of fair
ventilation will exist in the western and north central highlands.
Minimum relative humidity Thursday will continue to be very high
with 65 to 85 percent values east of the central mountains and 50 to
60 percent to the west. Daytime temperatures Thursday will be 25 to
30 below normal across eastern NM and 10 to 15 degrees below normal
across western NM.

As the upper level system moves eastward across southern and central
Colorado Friday, a west southwest flow aloft will transport drier
air across the region. A weak, dry backdoor cold front will push
westward across eastern and central NM Friday. Drier air and
increased sunshine will overcome the slightly cooler air behind the
backdoor front to produce higher temperatures areawide. Highs Friday
will be 10 to 20 degrees warmer east of the central mountains and 5
to 10 degrees warmer across the west. Drier air will result in a 15
to 40 percent drop in minimum relative humidity Friday afternoon,
yet values will still be in the 30s north to the lower 60s south.
Ventilation rates will improve to fair to good across the northeast
plains behind the cold front, but will be poor again across the rest
of the area. Highs will increase a few more degrees in the west
Saturday, but will change little across the rest of the area. Dry
weather will continue Saturday, as a ridge of high pressure aloft
moves across NM. Ventilation rates Saturday will be fair to good
across much of the area, except across north central and northeast
NM, where poor ventilation is expected.

Another upper level trough will move across southern CA on Sunday
and then move slowly eastward across the Desert Southwest Monday and
Tuesday. This system will bring an increase in Pacific moisture and
showers to the area, as well as a few thunderstorms.

28

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for the following zones...
 NMZ507-519.

&&

$$

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