Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 141714

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1114 AM MDT Mon May 14 2018

Issued at 1100 AM MDT Mon May 14 2018

Fine tuned POPs for this afternoon, this evening and into the
early morning hours Tuesday. Guidance continues to indicate some
late night precip for the plains tonight, but a few of the storms
may be on the strong side and could produce some nickel size hail

Any severe threat this afternoon and early evening should be
along in N El Paso and possibly Kiowa county, however latest
guidance is keeping this supercell pretty far north.

There is also a low end chance of a rotating storm across southern
Baca county later this evening.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 431 AM MDT Mon May 14 2018

Currently...Cold front has sloshed back south into nern NM this
morning, and cool/moist air mass was covering all of the southeast
plains and eastern mountain slopes as of 10z. Weak upper wave has
taken overnight convection northeastward out of the area, leaving
only some patchy drizzle/sprinkles and fog along the Palmer Divide
in its wake.

Today...Cooler air mass should remain in place across the eastern
mountains and plains today, as low level winds gradually take on a
more easterly component by late morning. Switch to upslope winds may
provide just enough lift for some drizzle/sprinkles/showers along
and west of I-25 into early afternoon, before mixing leads to clouds
partially breaking across the area by late day. Chances for
afternoon and early evening convection look rather low across the
region give rather stout cap on forecast soundings, and will cut
back pops to just Teller/El Paso counties, where upper forcing is
slightly stronger and cap weaker. Certainly enough shear for a
strong/severe storm near the Palmer Divide late in the day given
continued brisk sw flow aloft wrapping around the south side of the
Great Basin upper low. Max temps today over the eastern mountains
and plains will run several degf cooler than yesterday, while
mountains and interior valleys see little change.

Tonight...Rather vigorous upper wave reaches the four corners region
late, while easterly upslope flow deepens on the plains. Given
strengthening upward motion and gradual erosion of the capping
inversion, expect better coverage of showers/thunderstorms to
develop after midnight, with I-25 corridor looking most favored for
storms into Tuesday morning. Instability look too weak for any
severe storms, though a rather rare late night/early morning rumble
of thunder is possible.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 431 AM MDT Mon May 14 2018

Tuesday...The upper low over the Great Basin weakens and erodes to
the north, weakening the w-sw flow aloft over the Four Corners.
Meanwhile, the gulf tap of moisture streaming up across the TX and
OK panhandles continues, feeding llvl moisture up into KS and
eastern CO. There should already be a healthy pool of moisture in
place across the plains from activity Mon eve, so plenty of cloud
cover will be on tap Tue morning. If some cloud breaks develop Tue
aftn, solar insolation will be the trigger for what could turn out
to be a fairly active evening. Expect likely pops over the mts and
scattered pops all along the I-25 corridor early Tue, then the focus
area starts to shift to the east through the aftn and eve. Temps
will warm into the 70s for most areas Tue aftn.

Wednesday through Friday...The heat returns as another upper low
moves east across central CA and sets up camp over the Great Basin,
providing deep southwest flow aloft across the Four Corners.
Convection is expected to be more isolated and diurnal in nature, as
temps climb into the 70s for the high valleys and 80s for the plains.

Saturday and Sunday...The upper low weakens and ejects across the
region late Fri, pushing a cold front south across the eastern CO
plains overnight into early Sat morning. Max temps across the east
are forecast to cool by 10 to 15 degrees as cloud cover and pcpn
chances increase. Look for highs for most areas to warm into the
70s. Moore


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1100 AM MDT Mon May 14 2018

Main concern for TAFs will be chance of late night precip/low
cigs/thunder/small hail at KCOS and KPUB as a disturbance moves
across the region during the late evening and early morning hours.
Depending on how much precip falls, may have some lingering low
cigs at KCOS and KPUB tomorrow morning. OTherwise expect VFR

VFR is near certain at KALS next 24 hours. Gusty sw sfc winds will
occur this afternoon.




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