Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 161749

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1149 AM MDT Wed May 16 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 419 AM MDT Wed May 16 2018

Currently...Remnants of overnight convection just about out of the
region as of 10z, and expect mostly clear skies and dry conditions
area-wide by sunrise.

Today...upper ridge over the eastern half of the state today as
western U.S. closed low slowly drifts toward the Great Basin.
Drier/warmer air mass will spread eastward across the area into the
afternoon, leaving narrow axis of instability near the KS border by
late day. Given the lack of forcing and increasingly unfavorable
looking vertical temperature profile over srn CO, suspect convection
will be hard to come by today, and will limit pops to just some very
small chances near the KS border from late afternoon into early
evening. If a storm can form, there is a marginal risk for low end
severe winds/hail, with Baca county having the greatest chance for
any activity. Max temps will climb with ridge overhead and warmer
mid levels, and 80s will return to most of the eastern plains.

Tonight...Moisture will slosh back westward toward the mountains,
but with with forcing for precip remaining weak, will limit pops to
just an isolated mention over the far sern corner of the plains.
Could see some patchy stratus return toward early Thu morning as low
level winds become sely, with best bet for lower clouds on the
plains north of the Arkansas River and along the south slopes of the
Palmer Divide.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 419 AM MDT Wed May 16 2018

Thursday and Friday...The upper low is expected to park over the
Great Basin both Thu and Fri, producing brisk southwest flow across
the Four Corners region. This will lead to much warmer temps, and
the dry conditions combined with increasing winds will lead to areas
nearing critical fire weather levels both days. Convection is
expected to be more isolated and diurnal in nature as the dryline
develops near the CO/KS border, and southerly sfc winds for the far
east draw gulf moisture up just east of that line. Look for highs in
the 70s for the high valleys each day, while the plains warm into
the upper 70s to near 90F.

Saturday and Sunday...Models are persisting in showing the low
pressure trough to the west weakening, and the upper low ejects to
the east-northeast across the Rockies beginning late Fri. This will
push a cold front south into eastern CO Fri night. Pcpn chances for
the eastern plains will increase as northeast to east sfc winds
remain in place both days. Expect max temps in the 70s for the high
valleys, and 60s to lower 70s for the plains.

Monday and Tuesday...Another closed upper low develops over the
Pacific moves onshore across CA on Mon, then moves into the Great
Basin on Tue. Once again southwest flow aloft over the Four Corners
will help to warm up and dry out the forecast area both days, but
some lingering moisture from the weekend means perhaps one more day
of isolated convection for the mts and the plains on Mon, with much
drier conditions then expected for Tue. Maximum temps are forecast
to climb into the 70s for the high valleys both days. For the
plains, look for 70s to around 80F for Mon, then 80s on Tue. Moore


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1146 AM MDT Wed May 16 2018

Upper ridge over Colorado today. There is a slight chance of
thunderstorms over the far southeast Colorado plains, primarily
over Baca and Prowers Counties. If storms develop in this area,
they could produce quarter size hail, 60 mph wind gusts, locally
heavy rain and lightning. Otherwise, VFR expected. This includes
the KCOS, KPUB and KALS terminals.


Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
evening for COZ223-225-230-233.



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