


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
482 FXUS65 KPUB 111714 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1114 AM MDT Fri Jul 11 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Another round of afternoon and evening thunderstorms today, initially over the Mountains, then spreading east across the Plains. A couple could become strong to severe. - Cooler on Saturday, with 70s and 80s for highs. Thunderstorms most prevalent over the higher terrain. - Daily afternoon and evening shower and storms are expected through the long term period. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 329 AM MDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Currently...satellite imagery this morning shows and upper shortwave pushing east into Kansas. A few showers remain on radar across Baca County, and those should continue east through the early morning hours. Temperatures have cooled into the 50s and low 60s across the Plains, with dewpoints in the lower 50s along the I-25 corridor, and low 60s near the Kansas border. Today...the upper level pattern will feature high pressure over southern California, while a trough passes across the Northern Plains through this afternoon. This will put northwesterly flow across Colorado, with a strong embedded wave dropping across the area this afternoon. At the surface, low level flow will turn southeasterly by early afternoon. This will help keep higher dewpoint air across the Plains, with dewpoints remaining in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Instability will increase this afternoon, with most high-res guidance developing around 1000 j/kg of SBCAPE along the Eastern Mountains, into the I-25 corridor. 0-6 km shear looks to be near 30 kts this afternoon. Expect initial thunderstorm development over the Mountains by late morning, pushing east into the I-25 corridor this afternoon. Given the shear and instability, a few thunderstorms could become strong to severe. Hail to near 1 inch in diameter and wind gusts in excess of 60 mph will be possible with stronger storms. Lightning and locally heavy rainfall will also be possible. Overall, temperatures will be slightly cooler today, with 80s to low 90s for the lower elevations. In addition, there could be a few spotty near critical fire weather concerns along the Continental Divide, however, winds look to be too light this afternoon. Tonight...the upper shortwave will slowly track southeast into western Kansas by morning. Showers and thunderstorms will push east across the Plains overnight, clearing into Kansas by Saturday morning. The strong to severe potential will remain during the evening hours, with the probability diminishing around midnight. Gusty outflow winds near 45 mph and small hail will remain a threat until the storms move east into Kansas. A cold front outflow boundary will push back westward across the Plains late tonight helping to keep moisture pooled across the region. This will help keep overnight lows in the lower 60s for the Plains. Saturday...not much change expected to the upper pattern with the high sitting over southern California, and the upper trough moving east into the Upper Midwest. Flow aloft is forecast to turn more northerly by the afternoon. Another upper level wave embedded in the flow will drop south across western Colorado. This will help generate another round of afternoon showers and thunderstorms over the Mountains. The northerly steering flow should help keep convection over the higher terrain, however, a couple of cells may move east into the southern I-25 corridor by late afternoon. Lightning, outflow wind gusts near 55 mph and locally heavy rainfall will all be possible with stronger storms. Temperatures on the Plains will be much cooler on Saturday, with 70s and 80s for this across the lower elevations. Mozley && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 329 AM MDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Saturday Night - Thursday: Through the long term period, active weather is expected each day, as showers and storms impact portions of the region. Overall, not much has changed from previous long term forecast, with messy northwesterly to northerly expected to be in place as a ridge of high pressure sits across the southwestern US. While no major forcing is still expected, orographic forcing will be in place with this flow pattern, along with periods of enhanced forcing from frontal surges late in this period. With these forcing mechanisms, along with moisture still in place each day, daily afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms are expected. The highest coverage of showers and storms is anticipated to remain along the mountains, where forcing will be maximized. With that said though, greater coverage is expected to expand across the plains around midweek next week as the aforementioned cold fronts push across the area. And like most summer days, a strong thunderstorm or two can`t be ruled out, with frequent lightning, gusty outflow winds around 40 mph, small hail, and brief periods of heavy rain the most likely hazards with any more organized convection. Beyond all of that, breezy winds and increased afternoon and evening cloud cover are expected each day. Looking at temperatures, through Tuesday, near seasonal temperatures are anticipated for much of the area. Then for Wednesday and Thursday, a cool down to below seasonal values is expected thanks to the cold front passage. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1109 AM MDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Thunderstorms are likely to affect to taf sites today, especially at KCOS late this afternoon and early evening. Gusty winds will be the main issue with any storms along with brief periods of locally heavy rain. Otherwise expect VFR conditions through the remainder of the period. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MOZLEY LONG TERM...SIMCOE AVIATION...HODANISH