Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 122355

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
655 PM CDT Thu Apr 12 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 125 PM CDT Thu Apr 12 2018

Strong southerly winds will continue through this evening and
Friday. This is occurring in response to a rather tight surface
pressure gradient across the region as surface low pressure
strengthens across the plains. We will continue to see warm air
and moisture advect through tonight and ahead of a cold front on

Surface winds will remain gusty overnight as the atmosphere
remains coupled with the 60-70kt low level jet. As a result, we
may need to extend the current wind advisory through the overnight
hours as winds continue to gust from 30-40mph. Will make a
decision on the advisory later in the evening.

Scattered showers will spread north in the warm sector ahead of
the front as early as mid Friday morning with this showery
activity continuing into the afternoon in advance of the front.

The latest global models continues to show a broad area of storms
moving through the region Friday afternoon and into the evening.
Confidence in this occuring has diminished as the Meso scale and
CAMS models are showing a much more scattered to isolated severe
storm potential in store for the Ozarks.

Shear and lift should be ample for strong to severe storm
development. Instability and the dry line are more questionable.
As a result, and leaning towards the Meso/CAMS models, current
thinking is that we see a few isolated severe storms (supercells)
develop. These storms would be capable of all modes of severe
weather, however they would likely be widely spaced. So, some
areas may not even see rainfall.

The cold front will begin to move into southeastern Kansas and the
Ozarks after 1 pm Friday and should progress fairly quickly
through the area. Temperatures behind the front will begin to fall
into the 40s Friday night as winds turn out of the west.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 125 PM CDT Thu Apr 12 2018

Westerly winds will continue through the day Saturday and shift
out of the northwest Saturday night. This will bring another
round of cold Canadian air into the Ozarks and the next round of
freezing conditions to the region. This will be a concern for
most if not all area growers as temperatures once again fall into
the 30s Saturday night and middle to upper 20s by Sunday morning.
Freeze warnings will once again be likely over the coming weekend.

The pattern again shifts as we head into next week with a warming
trend. It also appears that we can expect a rather dry period of
weather for next week as well.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 648 PM CDT Thu Apr 12 2018

Pilots can expect very windy conditions tonight through Friday
with strong low level wind shear tonight. Surface winds will
frequently gust over 25 kts. Moisture levels will gradually return
resulting in increasing clouds through the period. Will see a
lowering in ceilings Friday with the development of scattered
showers and thunderstorms.


MO...Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Friday for MOZ066-077>082-088>098-

KS...Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Friday for KSZ073-097-101.



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