883
FXUS63 KSGF 131858
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
158 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms chances this afternoon and again
  Monday afternoon will diminish quickly by evening. Heavy
  rainfall may lead to ponding and even isolated flash flooding.

- Active summertime pattern continues next week with daily
  afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances as temperatures
  climb back to around 90. This is still a few degrees below
  normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 159 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Satellite this afternoon continues to show the fetch of moisture
being funneled between upper level highs centered over the desert
southwest and the Gulf coast. At the surface a meandering front
extended east of I35 across Oklahoma and Kansas then east a bit
south of I-70.  The 12z SGF sounding highlighted a very moist
airmass with a 1.97 precipital water with CAMS depicting MUCAPES
of 500-1000 joules...though instability was a bit higher at
1500 joules closer to the frontal boundary.

The front is expected to drift southward toward I-44 this evening
and then drift back northward into central MO tonight.  With
moisture convergence leading to the added instability along the
front, the potential exists for training convection and flooding.
Another feature is a remnant MCV south of Branson drifting northeast
which may increase shower chances over the SE half of the forecast
area. Otherwise widely scattered showers and a few thunderstorms
will be possible. The combined activity will diminish with the
loss of heating.

The pattern changes little on Monday as the frontal boundary
over MO further loses connection to the progressive northern
stream then turns southward on the edge of the moisture axis.
Low level flow remains weak leading to diminished focus thus
anticipate only widely scattered showers with a bit greater
chance closer to the front. Overall chance for impactful weather
looks to be limited.

Cloud cover that kept temperatures down today will thin leading to
highs back in the middle 80s Monday. This is well below
seasonal highs in the lower 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 159 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

The active northern stream looks to remain across the northern tier
of the country leaving a broad pair of upper highs over the SW
and SE. Deterministic models are suggestive that the upper level weakness
across easter Texas into SW Missouri will become absorbed by
the SE high as it expands westward midweek. However little daily
change will be noted as convection forms along the periphery of
the high. Temperatures will slowly climb back toward normals in
the lower 90s.

&&


.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

MVFR at TAF sites under light (5-8 kt) southerly winds to begin
the period, with scattered showers and misty conditions across
MO/the greater Ozarks region. Showers are expected to continue
through the afternoon, decreasing in coverage this evening with
low (<20%) chance of thunder. The strongest of these storms
could produce heavy rainfall, decreasing visibility briefly,
with downburst winds causing outflow boundaries that would
remain for a couple hours even after the responsible storm
dissipates.

As storms diminish after 00Z, ceilings will rise back to VFR
for the early portion of the overnight period.

During the late overnight/early morning portion of the period,
ceilings may reduce flight conditions again with some mist/fog
development amidst saturated conditions.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Runnels
LONG TERM...Runnels
AVIATION...Camden