


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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883 FXUS63 KSGF 131858 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 158 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms chances this afternoon and again Monday afternoon will diminish quickly by evening. Heavy rainfall may lead to ponding and even isolated flash flooding. - Active summertime pattern continues next week with daily afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances as temperatures climb back to around 90. This is still a few degrees below normal. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 159 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Satellite this afternoon continues to show the fetch of moisture being funneled between upper level highs centered over the desert southwest and the Gulf coast. At the surface a meandering front extended east of I35 across Oklahoma and Kansas then east a bit south of I-70. The 12z SGF sounding highlighted a very moist airmass with a 1.97 precipital water with CAMS depicting MUCAPES of 500-1000 joules...though instability was a bit higher at 1500 joules closer to the frontal boundary. The front is expected to drift southward toward I-44 this evening and then drift back northward into central MO tonight. With moisture convergence leading to the added instability along the front, the potential exists for training convection and flooding. Another feature is a remnant MCV south of Branson drifting northeast which may increase shower chances over the SE half of the forecast area. Otherwise widely scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible. The combined activity will diminish with the loss of heating. The pattern changes little on Monday as the frontal boundary over MO further loses connection to the progressive northern stream then turns southward on the edge of the moisture axis. Low level flow remains weak leading to diminished focus thus anticipate only widely scattered showers with a bit greater chance closer to the front. Overall chance for impactful weather looks to be limited. Cloud cover that kept temperatures down today will thin leading to highs back in the middle 80s Monday. This is well below seasonal highs in the lower 90s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 159 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 The active northern stream looks to remain across the northern tier of the country leaving a broad pair of upper highs over the SW and SE. Deterministic models are suggestive that the upper level weakness across easter Texas into SW Missouri will become absorbed by the SE high as it expands westward midweek. However little daily change will be noted as convection forms along the periphery of the high. Temperatures will slowly climb back toward normals in the lower 90s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 MVFR at TAF sites under light (5-8 kt) southerly winds to begin the period, with scattered showers and misty conditions across MO/the greater Ozarks region. Showers are expected to continue through the afternoon, decreasing in coverage this evening with low (<20%) chance of thunder. The strongest of these storms could produce heavy rainfall, decreasing visibility briefly, with downburst winds causing outflow boundaries that would remain for a couple hours even after the responsible storm dissipates. As storms diminish after 00Z, ceilings will rise back to VFR for the early portion of the overnight period. During the late overnight/early morning portion of the period, ceilings may reduce flight conditions again with some mist/fog development amidst saturated conditions. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Runnels LONG TERM...Runnels AVIATION...Camden