Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 222010

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
310 PM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018

Issued at 227 PM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018

Partly Cloudy afternoon with some passing mid level clouds in
association with a passing shortwave trough. Surface high
pressure ridge to the east and a warm front nosing into western
portions of the area was allowing for a wide range in temps with
lower 50s across Central Missouri to around 70 in JLN. Afternoon
Rh values were dropping into the 25-35 percent range. This
combined with 15-20mph southerly winds was creating some elevated
fire behavior conditions.

Several periods of active weather will draw our forecast focus.
One timeframe is Friday night across Central Missouri as
thunderstorms enter the picture. The other is Sunday night
through the middle of next week as heavy rainfall looks to return
to the Southern Plains.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 227 PM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018

Clouds will slowly increase as we head through the evening hours
and especially Overnight. 850hpa warm air advection will kick in
overnight with an increasing low level jet. Looking at the 295 and
300K isentropic surfaces you can see isentropic upglide beginning
from 03Z and lasting until about 12Z. High res models are showing
isolated to scattered showers developing across the area and
moving east, initially across southern missouri then spread east
and northeast. Forecast soundings show very little instability
therefore no thunder is expected at this time. Temps should also
be quite a bit warmer than last night given increasing southerly
winds and cloud cover.

While it will not rain all day Friday, do think that areas of
showers will persist throughout the day across the area given
minor shortwaves rippling through the flow into our area.
Cloudcover looks thick and high temps look very similar to
Thursday. South winds will be gusty during the day with a
deepening surface low across NW Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 227 PM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018

Potent shortwave moves across Kansas Friday evening with a stout
50 to 60 kt low level jet developing and nosing into the area from
the southwest. A surface low will move from Northern Kansas into
Central Missouri during the late evening and overnight hours with
a warm front extending east and a trailing cold front. Should see
showers and thunderstorms developing across the area, especially
across the northern half of the area. Elevated instability will
continue to increase to 500-1000j/kg therefore thunderstorms will
be possible. As the surface low approaches Central Missouri late
Friday Night, 0-6km wind shear will increase to 40-50kts and
700-500hpa lapse rates around 7.5C/Km may allow for some hail in
some of the stronger storms across Central Missouri. Right now
think that hail will be subsevere however will need to monitor

Cold front and surface low moves through the whole area by mid
day Saturday with conditions drying out with northwest winds by
afternoon Saturday. Saturday night into early Sunday looks dry
given subsidence behind the passing wave.Flow turns southwesterly
Sunday with rain holding off until late in the day or potentially
evening as a shortwave approaches from the southwest.

A large upper level trough out west will continue the deep
southwest flow Monday through the middle of next week. A
baroclinic zone sets up very close to our area with multiple
rounds of showers and thunderstorms. There are some discrepancies
where the location of this zone is. At this time, the Monday night
through Tuesday night period is where the GFS paints the heaviest
QPF before the front passes south of the area and shifts the heavy
rainfall axis into Arkansas. In general 1 to 3 inches of rainfall
is looking increasingly likely early next week across the area.
Depending on rainfall rates and soil moisture/state of
vegetation, this may lead to some flooding concerns next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 158 PM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018

South winds will be gradually increasing with deepening low
pressure over the central Plains. Have included low level wind
shear late tonight also. Should remain VFR on ceilings and
visibility but expect cloud cover increase late in the period as
moisture advection increases ahead of approaching low.




SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Terry is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.