668
FXUS64 KTSA 070431
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1131 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025
   - Daily rain and storm chances will continue through the next
     week with higher chances for the first half of the week.

   - Organized severe weather is not expected.However, storms
     will be capable of producing localized heavy rainfall and
     gusty winds.

   - Afternoon heat indices will creep up into the 95-105F range
     toward the latter half of next week, with a weak cold front
     possible by next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Monday) Issued at 1140 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Showers and storms will gradually end overnight with just isolated
showers possibly lingering past sunrise Monday. The overall pattern
remains similar however the remnant outflow boundary and weak
influence from mid level troughing does raise a chance of afternoon
showers and storms over a broader portion of the forecast area
Monday afternoon through evening. Expect a similar decline in precip
chances into the overnight hours Monday night. Isolated strong
storms and heavy downpours remain the primary hazards.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 1140 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

A stronger wave continues to be shown moving across the central
CONUS on Tuesday with the influence extending into the southern
Plains on the periphery of the upper ridge. A trend upward in
overall shower and storm coverage is expected across the local
region along with a few more strong to severe storms through the
afternoon and evening hours.

Daily thunderstorm chances continue Wednesday through Friday though
the overall coverage is forecast to trend downward while high temps
warm a few degrees. Afternoon heat index values and corresponding
heat risk will tend upward for mid to late week.
Guidance continues to indicate the upper ridge weakens across the
western CONUS allowing a weak cold front to push into the region
toward next weekend. This scenario carries uncertainties largely
associated with climatology but the trend remains in the guidance.
Should this occur expect daily shower and storm chances to increase
while temps remain near to slightly below seasonal normals.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 644 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Scattered to broken mid and high clouds will remain common across
northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas this evening as isolated
to widely scattered showers/storms drop south and southeast out
of Kansas and Missouri. Will carry a Tempo group for KBVO and
Prob30 groups at KXNA/KROG/KFYV for timing. Brief MVFR
conditions, gusty winds, dangerous lightning and brief heavy rain
are capable within the stronger convection this evening. Late
evening through Monday morning, scattered mid/high clouds are
forecast for the CWA. There may be a brief period of reduced
visibility around sunrise, though conditions should quickly
improve after sunrise. During the day Monday, scattered to broken
mid and high clouds are again forecast over the CWA. Additional
storm chances develop Monday afternoon and have added another
Prob30 group to northwest Arkansas TAF sites. Winds through the
period start out southerly, become variable overnight, and then
return to south/southwest Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   74  90  73  90 /  50  20  20  40
FSM   74  94  74  91 /  20  30  30  60
MLC   72  91  72  90 /  20  30  20  40
BVO   71  89  70  89 /  60  20  20  40
FYV   71  89  70  88 /  30  40  30  60
BYV   71  87  70  89 /  60  40  30  60
MKO   72  89  72  88 /  30  30  20  40
MIO   72  89  72  88 /  60  30  30  50
F10   71  89  72  90 /  30  30  20  40
HHW   72  92  72  90 /   0  30  20  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...20