Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 132013

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
213 PM MDT Fri Jul 13 2018

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Friday)
Issued at 212 PM MDT Fri Jul 13 2018

Weak shortwave ridge over the area with low level SE upslope
flow. Theta-e ridge over eastern WY will support isolated TS this
afternoon/evening there in addition to the northern BH. Low
CAPE/weak shear should keep storms on the tame side with small
hail and gusty winds possible with a few cells. Warmer conds
expected Sat as the thermal ridge builds into the region. Capping
will hold off convection until late afternoon and evening when the
upper trough and associated cold front pushes into the region.
Sufficient CAPE of 1-2 KJ/kg with increasing shear will support
support a few strong to perhaps isolated severe storms Sat
evening. Frontal boundary will push into the region Sat evening
and provide the focus for shra/ts chances, esp post frontal Sat
night into Sunday morning when a secondary upper impulse pushes
into the region. CAA/clouds/and precip will hold temps down
Sunday, with highs struggling out of the 60s in some locations
around the Black Hills. Flow will then turn more NW early next
week as the western CONUS ridge rebuilds, with enough lingering
moisture in place to support shra/ts with any weak impulse. Most
activity in this pattern will be widely scattered to isolated,
with the best chances around and SE of the Black Hills. The upper
ridge looks to shift east by mid week, with warmer/drier weather
expected after. Look for seasonal temps in the period, with the
coolest day on Sunday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Saturday)
Issued At 1100 AM MDT Fri Jul 13 2018

A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible across
northeastern WY and the northern Hills this afternoon and
evening. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions through the period.




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