321
FXUS63 KFSD 191141
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
541 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Persistent clouds keep temperatures in the 40s east of I-29
  today, while partial clearing west allows warming into the 50s
  to lower 60s.

- Dry weather will prevail through the upcoming weekend, with
  only low (<20%) chances of rain by the end of this forecast
  period on Tuesday.

- Temperatures will fluctuate slightly through early next week,
  but readings remain above to well above normal. Sharply colder
  air may arrive as we head into the Thanksgiving travel period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 310 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

TODAY: Widespread stratus blankets the area early this Wednesday
morning, with areas of fog developing across northwest Iowa and
southwest Minnesota. With pockets of dense fog indicated by AWOS
obs and web cams, have issued a Special Weather Statement for
now. If dense fog becomes more widespread, a Dense Fog Advisory
may become necessary. While visibility is expected to slowly
improve after 8-9 AM, south-southeast boundary layer flow ahead
of a warm front will likely keep the stratus locked in for much
of the day east of I-29. Similar to yesterday, this could have
a negative impact on our warming potential and have adjusted
highs a few degrees cooler in our east today. In contrast,
expect to see at least partial clearing from the west for areas
along/west of the James River, and the warmer NBM highs in the
mid 50s to lower 60s look good for those areas.

TONIGHT-FRIDAY: Today`s warming will be short-lived as a cool
front slides across the area tonight, followed by Canadian high
pressure settling into the northern Plains through Friday. This
will keep highs mainly in the mid 40s to lower 50s through the
end of the work week, but will also keep our area dry as a storm
system slides east across the central Plains.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY: The weekend will be dominated by warm zonal
flow across the northern CONUS as a strong storm system develops
over the southwest US and tracks east into the southern
Rockies. Low level thermal profiles show 925mb temperatures of
10-15C working into parts of the forecast area Saturday, with
westerly flow which would support high temperatures in the 60s
in some locations. NBM currently holding shy of 60F, but does
show the potential in its warmer members with 30-50% probability
of highs topping 60F through the Missouri River Valley. A
little broader spectrum of solutions by Sunday but still low
probabilities of 60F degree readings in our far south.

MONDAY-TUESDAY: Will have to watch trends on the aforementioned
southwest CONUS storm system as it moves into the Plains early
next week, along with a weaker northern stream wave which could
dip into the northern Plains. Current projections keep our area
between these split flow system with dry conditions continuing
for Monday-Tuesday. However, changes in the track of either
system could bring some light precipitation chances our way.
We will start off the holiday week with temperatures remaining
above normal (highs in the 40s and 50s).

Looking beyond this forecast period, there is decent consensus
in the global ensembles showing a sharp change toward below
normal temperatures barreling into the region by the middle of
next week. Precipitation chances for the start of the holiday
travel period are more uncertain at this range, though current
consensus keeps the local area in a relative minimum compared
to locations to areas northeast of I-94 and south of I-80.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 540 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

LIFR ceilings and areas of MVFR-IFR visibility in fog blanket
much of northwest Iowa/southwest Minnesota to start this TAF
period. The fog is expected to dissipate by mid-morning 15-16Z.
Ceilings likewise will slowly lift, but are expected to remain
low-end MVFR through the afternoon, perhaps lowering back to IFR
in portions of southwest Minnesota after sunset.

Western edge of low MVFR-IFR stratus approaching the James
River at the start of this TAF period will slowly progress east
toward I-29 today. KHON will likely see VFR conditions more
prevalent through this period with stratus clearing early this
morning. More uncertainty in timing improvement at KFSD/KSUX.
Though clearing is currently expected by sunset, the western
edge may stall just east of KFSD, remaining close enough that
MVFR ceilings may redevelop late in this period. Additionally,
some models hint at MVFR stratus returning from the northwest
behind a cold front passage tonight. Confidence is too low to
drop ceilings back to MVFR at KHON/FSD for now, but potential
will be monitored for later updates.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JH
AVIATION...JH