169
FXUS63 KFSD 281108
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
608 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well above normal temperatures continue, likely into next
  weekend.

- Dry conditions are also expected for much of the next seven
  days. Only minimal rain risks (< 20%) exist, focused
  Wednesday into Thursday morning, and again toward next
  weekend.

- Dry and occasionally breezy conditions could lead to lower
  end fire weather concerns at times, but critical conditions
  are not anticipated.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025

NOW THROUGH TONIGHT: Clear skies and light winds are aiding in
efficient radiational cooling this morning with temperatures to
start the day in the 40s to lower 50s.

High pressure off to the southeast of the area brings southerly
winds and warmer temperatures today. Both mixing and a compressing
surface pressure gradient leads to some breezier winds west of I-29,
with gusts around 25 mph. Plenty of sunshine along with this
southerly flow and WAA aloft help warm us back into the 80s. We`ll
mix down some drier air, especially east of I-29. Minimum humidity
values across southwestern MN and adjacent areas of SD and IA could
drop as low as 20%, but lighter winds (gusts 15-20 mph) should limit
widespread fire concerns in this area. Stronger winds in the west
could lead to some localized higher fire danger today despite
slightly higher humidity.

Wildfire smoke remains over the area today. Although the highest
concentrations are aloft, some may mix down to the surface west of I-
29. Not expecting significant impacts to visibility or to air
quality; however, those in sensitive groups may want to check air
quality before spending extended time outdoors.

Clear, but a maybe touch hazy, skies continue tonight. Temperatures
remain a bit warmer tonight, with lows in the 50s to lower 60s.
Southerly winds stay a touch breezy as well, with occasional gusts
around 20 mph.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY: Weak trough and mid level wave tracks through
western and central SD through the day Monday and into Monday
evening. Although some hi-res guidance indicates some very spotty
sprinkles to start the day Monday west of the James River, soundings
show very dry lower levels and a shallow moist layer aloft so kept
the forecast dry. Highs warm into the mid and upper 80s. Wildfire
smoke aloft continues early next week, with some minor
concentrations possibly mixing to the surface east of I-29.

A couple waves move north through the southwesterly flow aloft, with
troughing building in the western CONUS and high pressure for much
of the eastern/northeastern US - which meanders to the Midwest mid
week. Dry conditions expected, with low (30% or less) chances for
measurable precipitation Wednesday into Wednesday night. Highs in
the 80s with lows in the lower 60s.

Although conditions remain breezy through mid week, an increase in
lower level moisture should temper widespread fire concerns.
However, areas of locally elevated fire danger are possible with
drying fuels and harvest.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY: Southwesterly flow aloft continues through the
work week. However, a weak surface trough is progged to move through
portions of the Plains late week, with guidance varying on timing
by as much as 24 hours. Flow pattern continues into at least the
first half of the weekend, with troughing beginning to deepen toward
the end of next weekend across the western CONUS. A couple of waves
and surface troughs moving through the Plains during this period
could bring light precipitation chances but confidence is low given
the varying solutions. Chances for measurable precipitation late
week remain around 30% or less, with slightly higher chances
(40-50%) toward next Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 602 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025

VFR conditions expected through the period. Wildfire smoke
continues aloft through the period. If any is able to mix down
to the surface, impacts to visibility are not expected given the
low concentrations. Did add a FEW250 group to account for smoke
aloft with this issuance.

South to southeasterly winds increase after sunrise this
morning, with gusts this afternoon around 25 knots west of I-29
to around 15-20 knots east of I-29. Gusts taper off after
sunset, but remain around 15 knots west of the James River
tonight.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SG
AVIATION...SG