651
FXUS63 KICT 150442
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1042 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy dense fog possible southeast KS tonight into Saturday AM.

- Well above average temperatures through Monday, with an
  eventual cool down from Tuesday and beyond.

- Continued dry weather through Sunday.

- Potential for patchy drizzle late Sunday night through Monday
  evening.

- Active pattern from mid week through next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 224 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

FOG:

Patchy dense fog is possible late tonight through mid-late morning
Saturday from roughly the Flint Hills and through southeast Kansas,
as diurnal cooling maximizes amidst a relatively moist low-level
airmass. Similar to this morning it may be rather patchy, but later
shifts will be monitoring for a possible dense fog advisory.

TEMPERATURES:

Temperatures 10-20 degrees above mid-November averages will persist
through Saturday, with readings flirting with record highs today,
and possibly again Saturday. A weak cool front looks to cool us off
5-10 degrees for Sunday, but still likely in the 60s for highs.

Monday temperatures will be tricky, as strong low-level warm/moist
advection may support widespread low clouds and much cooler
temperatures in the 50s compared to the current forecast of 60-70s,
per the latest NAM solution. While the NAM is likely too
cool/cloudy, 70s may be too optimistic if low clouds settle in for
the day.

After a weak post-frontal cool down into the 50s-60s Tuesday,
uncertainty enters back into the forecast, as the pattern turns
quite amplified. Latest guidance supports 50s-60s through Thursday
with mild overnight lows ahead of a deep western CONUS trough. We`ll
eventually get on the cooler side of this system by Thursday night
or Friday, but a major cold snap is not expected.

PRECIPITATION:

Quiet/dry weather will persist through Sunday. For late Sunday night
through Monday evening, stout warm/moist advection ahead of a
compact upper shortwave traversing the Central Plains may support
patchy drizzle across the region. For now, will keep with a mostly
dry forecast, as moisture depth may not be deep enough and/or
boundary layer may not saturate enough for drizzle, but will
continue to monitor.

As we head into mid week through next weekend, deterministic and
ensemble consensus supports an amplified weather pattern across the
region, with a handful of deep western CONUS troughs possibly
ejecting out onto the Heartland. The result will be the potential
for a few episodes of widespread rain/thunderstorm by Wednesday.
Uncertainty remains high during this period regarding timing and
amplitude of various ejecting upper troughs, so stay tuned as we
refine forecast details in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1037 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Main aviation concern will remain patchy fog early Sat morning.

Still thinking some patchy fog will be possible early Sat
morning from the Flint Hills into southeast KS. However,
increasing high clouds may delay the onset until around 11z and
may also decrease the likelyhood of dense fog. Will go ahead and
bring KCNU down to around 3sm, but feel fairly confident that
the lower visibilities will be just west of KCNU, over the
Flint Hills. Once fog lifts late Sat morning, VFR conditions are
expected for the remainder of the day. A weak trough will move
through and will flip winds around to the north at most sites
by the early afternoon hours.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...RBL