Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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884 FXUS63 KICT 131759 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1259 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers/isolated storm chances lingering through tonight. - Chance for storms Tuesday night through Thursday night. - Trending warmer for the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 342 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Currently a shortwave trough is translating across the Plains while upper ridging is noted over the western CONUS and Ohio/Tennessee Valleys. Scattered showers and isolated storms will continue to linger across the area today. A few storms late afternoon may be strong with pea to dime sized hail possible across southeast KS where 20kts of shear will combine with 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE during peak heating. Late evening and tonight, showers will come to end across the area as the shortwave trough axis moves into the Mid Mississippi Valley. Brief shortwave ridging will move overhead tomorrow bringing quiet weather and temps the mid to upper 70s for the daytime. By tomorrow night, a compact subtle shortwave/500mb vort max will move ahead of the next main trough bringing the potential to see an elevated storm or two develop and/or move in from NW KS. As mentioned in the previous discussion, there is a conditional chance for severe storms developing along a cold front Wednesday afternoon/evening. Mid 60s dewpoints are expected to surge northward into the area ahead of the next trough to move across the region, with 40 to 50 kts of bulk shear, steep midlevel lapse rates, and MLCAPE of 1500-3000 J/kg possible. Surface convergence looks to be pretty minimal. The long range forecast remains quite uncertain with models differing widely after Thursday. Cluster analysis shows some of the biggest differences for the weekend period are the degree of ridging off the Pacific NW, and wavelength and amplitude of the trough over south central Canada and the northern Plains. Therefore, confidence in the forecast including temps in the upper 80s (and even low 90s in SC SK) are of low confidence at this time. Will remain with NBM for now, but even the 25-75th % range of NBM MaxT differs by at least 10 degrees. Expect adjustments to the these periods in the coming days. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1241 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Some MVFR cigs remain across mainly southeast Kansas and within scattered shower and isolated thunderstorm activity. Showers and isolated storms are expected to rapidly diminish with loss of heating while some MVFR/IFR cigs redevelop across the Flint Hills and southeast Kansas tonight. LIght northwest winds will prevail across the region tonight. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...KMB AVIATION...MWM