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000
FXUS63 KICT 161600
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1100 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1059 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

A RATHER COMPLICATED CONVECTIVE SETUP TODAY WITH ALL KINDS OF
MESOSCALE/SUBTLE FEATURES TO EXPLAIN. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A
WEAK DIFFUSE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS SRN KS AT THIS TIME.
BASICALLY IT RUNS FROM KINGMAN TO NEAR KICT TO KEMP. JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY IS A MESO-CONVECTIVE VORT MAX (MCV) CURRENTLY
SPINNING JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF KICT.  THIS IS A REMNANT OF LAST
NIGHTS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX FROM WRN KS THAT DIMINISHED OR DIED AS IT
MOVED ACROSS CEN KS. THE COMBINATION OF THE TWO...LEAD TO CONCERNS
FOR RENEWED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SRN AND SOUTHEAST KS...
AS AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS LOCATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THIS MCV AND
OUTFLOW WITH SBCAPE VALUES OF 2500-3000 J/KG. SO THINK THE
COMBINATION OF THE TWO WILL BE ENOUGH FOR A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS AND SOUTHEAST KS...AS THE MCV
MAKES SLOW PROGRESS TO THE EAST INTO ERN KS.  SO WILL INSERT SOME
POPS IN THIS AREA FOR THIS CHANCE.

NEXT CONCERN WILL FOCUS TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHERE
SHORT TERM MODELS STILL SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...AND CONGEAL
INTO SOME SORT OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEX AS IT MOVES EAST-SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS MIDNIGHT/OVERNIGHT.  BOTH THE NAM/WRF AND GFS SUGGEST THAT
COUNTIES SW OF KICT WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF HEAVY RAINFALL
FROM THIS COMPLEX...SO GOING POPS OVERNIGHT LOOK FINE.

KETCHAM

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

EARLY MORNING MCS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE QUICKLY WITH A LULL IN
THE ACTIVITY EXPECTED FOR TODAY. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING OF MOIST
AIRMASS LINGERING OVER KANSAS WILL RECHARGE ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY
TO FAIRLY HIGH LEVELS...WHICH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR LATER TONIGHT
ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. WE ARE STILL EXPECTING
THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP IN UPSLOPE MOISTURE REGIME OVER NORTHWEST
KANSAS/SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
SPREAD SOUTHEAST AND GROW UPSCALE INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS
TONIGHT...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS LIKELY. THIS
MCS SHOULD MOVE SOUTH OF KANSAS DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY
WITH A STABILIZED AIRMASS LEFT IN ITS WAKE. WE WILL MAINTAIN THE
FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS DUE TOO DECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS
FROM SATURDAY...HOWEVER FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS`S USUALLY RESULT IN
LOWER END FLOODING RISK. PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION WITH COOLER/DRIER AIR AND LIGHTER WIND SPEEDS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

NEXT UPPER WAVE REMAINS ON TRACK WHICH COULD GENERATE ANOTHER MCS
AND AFFECT CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS FOR WEDNESDAY. ONCE THAT SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THE HEAT LOOKS TO BUILD OVER KANSAS WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS RISING BACK INTO THE 90S FOR THURSDAY-SATURDAY.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WEAKENING MCV JUST EAST OF KHUT AT THIS
TIME...WITH A FEW RAIN SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF KCNU. BOTH SHOULD
CONTINUE TO WANE. RATHER CHAOTIC WIND FIELD FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS WITH THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS. UNCLEAR WHERE SURFACE
BOUNDARY/IES WILL END UP BY THIS AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF ANY
BOUNDARIES AND THE WEAK CAP. BETTER CHANCE WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AS
ANOTHER AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS ROLLS OFF THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH
BEST CHANCES AT KRSL/KHUT. VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. -HOWERTON


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    89  67  85  64 /  20  80  60  10
HUTCHINSON      90  67  85  63 /  30  80  50  10
NEWTON          89  67  84  63 /  20  70  50  10
ELDORADO        88  67  84  63 /  20  70  50  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   89  68  85  65 /  20  80  60  10
RUSSELL         90  65  85  61 /  60  80  10  10
GREAT BEND      90  65  86  62 /  50  80  10  10
SALINA          90  66  85  62 /  30  60  20  10
MCPHERSON       89  66  85  62 /  20  80  40  10
COFFEYVILLE     88  68  83  65 /  20  70  60  10
CHANUTE         88  68  84  63 /  20  60  40   0
IOLA            87  68  83  62 /  20  60  40   0
PARSONS-KPPF    88  68  83  64 /  20  70  50  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
FOR KSZ071-072-094>096-098>100.

&&

$$