635
FXUS63 KFSD 191701
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1201 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Today looks mainly dry once the early morning activity moves
  south of the area. Some spotty showers will be possible. A few
  storms will be possible near the Missouri River towards
  highway 20 in northwest IA late tonight.

- Late Sunday night into Monday morning a few thunderstorms
  could develop, some of which could be strong to severe.
  Confidence is fairly low.

- An active pattern persists aloft Monday through Friday next
  week which looks to bring daily chances for showers and
  storms. A few of the days could see isolated severe storms.

- Seasonally warm conditions are expected next week with
  afternoon heat indices into the 90s each day. Tuesday could
  see heat indices in a few locations push 100 degrees.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 236 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

The late night and early morning activity will continue to drift
south taking the deeper instability to the south as well. This will
bring a lower chance for showers and thunderstorms to the area today
into this evening. A weak wave will move into the area this
afternoon and could bring some spotty showers, but model soundings
suggest that moisture could be a problem so for now this will be a
low impact concern. Otherwise some lower morning clouds should
gradually scour out with less clouds in the afternoon and likely
based in the mid levels. Temperatures should be on the mild side
with northeast flow and highs in the 70s.

A weak low level jet will focus near I-90 into parts of northwest IA
later tonight into early Sunday morning and could bring some spotty
thunderstorms. Instability and shear on the lower end so the
potential for severe weather is very low.

While there will be some lower chances for showers and thunderstorms
on Sunday, some weak mid and upper level ridging may aid in keeping
this activity at bay. Enough instability and mid to upper level
shear to support isolated severe storms but a more widespread
outbreak is not expected.

The area remains on the northern fringes of an upper level ridge
which supports seasonally warm and humid conditions for the week
ahead with highs in the 80s to lower 90s and lows in the mid 60s to
lower 70s. Periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms are also
expected but confidence on timing any given day is very low.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1154 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

A somewhat messy aviation period with IFR/MVFR conditions
intermixed across the region currently along with SHRA/TSRA
chances. Lingering sub-VFR ceilings still stretch either side of
a KVTN to KFSD to KMML line. Should see these lower ceilings
continue to mix higher or scatter out with mid/upper clouds
hanging on. HREF probabilities suggest these MVFR ceilings may
return later tonight.

We`ll also see TSRA chances focus mainly near and especially
south of the MO River Valley but could at times impact KSUX.
Further north, a period of -SHRA around KHON early this
afternoon and perhaps even grazing KFSD by mid to late
afternoon.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...Kalin