418
FXUS63 KFSD 011126
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
626 AM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lingering areas of drizzle and/or flurries will continue
  through mid-morning before pushing eastwards. Mostly light
  accumulations are expected.

- Near to just above normal temperatures will continue from
  Sunday onwards as quieter conditions return.

- After mostly dry conditions through the midweek, more precipitation
  chances will be possible towards the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 232 AM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

TODAY & TONIGHT: Another cool day ahead! Taking a look across the
area, we`re continuing to watch lingering areas of drizzle
transition to flurries this morning as temperatures gradually cool
into the 30s to start the day. From here, expect any lingering
precipitation to gradually dissipated from west to east by mid-
morning as the compact upper-level low (ULL) gradually drifts
southeastwards into the Upper Mississippi River Valley. Looking at
the rest of the day, quieter conditions should return as surface
ridging moves in to replace the departing ULL. With lingering CAA
aloft and light northwesterly surface winds, another cool day is
expected as highs peak in the low to mid 40s as cloud cover gradually
diminishes from west to east. Lastly, seasonable conditions will
continue overnight as lows dip into the upper 20s to low 30s.

SUNDAY-TUESDAY: Looking ahead, increasing mid-level warm air
advection (WAA) and the return of southerly surface winds by Sunday
should allow for temperatures to recover with highs mainly in the
mid 50s to mid 60s. Breezier conditions will also make a temporarily
return by Sunday afternoon as the SPG tightens ahead of an approaching
cold front leading to wind gust in the 25-35 mph range. However,
with limited moisture according to soundings not expecting anything
in terms of precipitation. Nonetheless, with dry fuels and breezier
winds can`t completely rule out some locally elevated fire weather
concerns especially across southcentral SD where RHs will be in
the low 30 percent range. Otherwise, quieter conditions will continue
for the duration of the period as quasi-zonal flow persists. Lastly,
seasonal to slight warmer conditions will persist with highs mainly
in the 50s to low 60s and lows in the 30s.

WEDNESDAY ONWARDS: Heading into the extended period, mostly quiet
conditions will continue with the zonal flow regime. Looking aloft,
a shortwave along with a mostly dry cold front will progress through
the area between Tuesday night into Wednesday. Upon further analysis
of soundings, can`t completely rule out a few sprinkles given the
saturation in the column. However, accumulations would be very light
at best (if any). Otherwise, quieter conditions will continues through
about Wednesday before another system progresses through the Northern
Plains by Thursday. Lastly, seasonal conditions will persist through
Friday with highs main in the 50s to low 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 620 AM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

Mainly VFR/MVFR conditions with occasional IFR cigs will
transition to mostly VFR conditions this TAF period. Taking a
look at satellite imagery, areas of MVFR to IFR stratus with a
few pockets of flurries continue to progress across the area
this morning. While these conditions will likely continue over
the next few hours, should see cloud cover gradually dissipate
from west to east this afternoon restoring mainly VFR conditions
across the area. Otherwise, northwesterly winds surface winds
will become more southerly this afternoon as a surface ridge
passes through to end the TAF period.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...05