Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 022016
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
416 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOTHING.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: WHOLE PATTERN PROGRESSES
SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT...WITH OVERHEAD HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING INTO THE
FAR EASTERN LAKES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. RETURN FLOW WELL TO OUR
WEST...WITH INITIAL STAGES OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION LEADING
TO SOME SCATTERED WESTERN LAKES CIRRUS. OTHERWISE...JUST ONE
FANTASTIC EARLY SUMMER DAY ACROSS THE NORTH WOODS...WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES FALLING JUST SHORT OF NORMAL LEVELS.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE TRENDS.

DETAILS: DRY WEATHER CONTINUES TONIGHT UNDER SOME SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDS. AIRMASS IS A DRY ONE...NOTED BY DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE
UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO ONCE AGAIN FALL OFF RATHER QUICKLY THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...AIRMASS IS ALSO NOW NEARLY A FULLY MODIFIED ONE...WITH
CURRENT READINGS SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN OBSERVED THE LAST FEW
AFTERNOONS. SO...WHILE READINGS WILL FALL...JUST NOT SEEING THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD VERY COLD READINGS/FROST DEVELOPMENT THAT
OCCURRED THE LAST FEW NIGHT. STILL BELIEVE SOME OF THE COLDER AREAS
IN THE AU SABLE RIVER VALLEY WILL MAKE A RUN INTO THE UPPER 30S
(ISOLATED MID 30S?)...BUT ANY FROST DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIMITED AND
NOT WORTHY OF A HEADLINE. LOWER/MIDDLE 40S WILL DO FOR THE REST OF
THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015

...INCREASING THREAT FOR RAIN HEADING INTO THURSDAY/FRIDAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
SPLITS AS IT APPROACHES THE WEST COAST...SOUTHERN BRANCH FLOW
PREDOMINATES ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WITH TROUGHING OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...AND A SPLIT TROUGH OVER THE EAST WITH LOW CENTERS OVER
SOUTHWEST QUEBEC AND THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.  SHORT WAVE TROUGHING/
POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY EXTENDS EAST FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING AHEAD
OF IT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST.
AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM QUEBEC
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.  A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM FAR NORTHWEST ONTARIO/SOUTHERN
MANITOBA/NORTH DAKOTA/MONTANA.  WEDGE OF DRY AIR EXISTS OVER THE
GREAT LAKES...WITH MOISTURE RETURNING AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE
SURFACE RIDGE THROUGH THE PLAINS/MIDWEST (PRECIPITABLE WATER ABOVE 1
INCH INTO NORTHWEST ONTARIO).

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE GREAT LAKES NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK...UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE WHILE TROUGHING BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED
ALONG THE WEST COAST.  THIS WILL PUT THE GREAT LAKES BETWEEN RISING
HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC.  AS AN UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF
OVER CALIFORNIA LATER THURSDAY/FRIDAY...RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTH
THROUGH THE PLAINS...VEERING UPPER LEVEL WINDS FROM WEST TO
NORTHWEST OVER MICHIGAN BY FRIDAY.  THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A
CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO IMPACT THE REGION IN THE
THURSDAY TIME FRAME...NAM-WRF IS VERY BULLISH ON THIS IDEA BUT WE`LL
SEE HOW THE FORECAST TRENDS GOING FORWARD.  UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL
SLOWLY GET PUSHED INTO UPPER MICHIGAN THURSDAY...AND THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER NORTHEAST FLOW FRIDAY.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: RAIN CHANCES INCREASING WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

WEDNESDAY...SURFACE RIDGING WILL BE BARELY HANGING ON ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY...WILL SEE SOME INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER DEW
POINTS BUT OTHERWISE SHOULD BE ANOTHER QUIET AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 70S INLAND FROM THE LAKES.  SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL PULL A LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE ACROSS
UPPER MICHIGAN BENEATH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.  INCREASING
THERMAL ADVECTION/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND POSSIBLY AIDED BY A MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH (ONE OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED CONVECTIVELY
ENHANCED VARIETY) COULD RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS FOR AT LEAST EASTERN
UPPER WEDNESDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY INTO FAR NORTHWEST LOWER AS WELL
TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT FOR NOW WILL CONFINE ANY RAIN CHANCES ABOVE THE
BRIDGE.

THURSDAY...COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PLOD SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS
UPPER MICHIGAN...ALONG WITH THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E AXIS.  BEST CHANCE
FOR RAIN WILL PROBABLY BE CLOSER TO THE FRONT THOUGH IF THERE IS
SOME SORT OF MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH (OR REMNANTS THEREOF) THAT
WOULD BE A BIT OF A WILD CARD.  SHOULD BE ANOTHER WARM DAY AT LEAST
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER IF CLOUDS DON`T GET OUT OF HAND (MID
70S TO AROUND 80 AND A SHADE MORE HUMID).  FRONT EXPECTED TO SETTLE
INTO NORTHERN LOWER THURSDAY NIGHT...SO WILL PUSH RAIN CHANCES
FARTHER SOUTH INTO NORTHERN LOWER.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO
NUDGE FRONT SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY...NOT A GREAT SIGNAL FOR
RAINFALL BUT PRECIPITABLE WATER AXIS ABOVE AN INCH ENOUGH TO
MAINTAIN CURRENT LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER.  WILL DRY
THINGS OUT FARTHER NORTH DURING THE MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015

THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH FAIRLY DECENT GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE
AGREEMENT AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WORKS SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. EXPECTING DRY WEATHER AND RATHER
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO DOMINATE FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEKEND
BEFORE A SHARP UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
TRACK OVERHEAD LATE SUNDAY INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
WHILE DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST IN TERMS OF EXACT PRECIPITATION
TIMING...OVERALL COVERAGE AND THUNDER CHANCES...AM GROWING MORE
CONFIDENT THAT NORTHERN MICHIGAN WILL BE IN FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
RAINFALL.

BEYOND MONDAY...SURPRISE SURPRISE...UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING CONTINUES
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AS RIDING BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
CONUS...LIKELY LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
LOCALLY TOWARD THE VERY TAIL END OF THE PERIOD AND PERHAPS BEYOND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 104 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD UNDER JUST SOME SCATTERED
CIRRUS. LIGHT LAKE BREEZE WINDS TODAY...BECOMING CALM TONIGHT.
SOUTH FLOW STRENGTHENS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015

LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE IN SPEED OUT OF THE SOUTH
WEDNESDAY...BECOMING LIGHT AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BOTH WINDS AND
WAVES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MSB
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...MSB
MARINE...MSB



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