Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 300325
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1025 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1025 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

MULTI-BAND N/NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPED THROUGHOUT
THE EVENING...AND ARE IMPACTING MUCH OF OUR CWA LATE THIS EVENING.
BANDS HAVE BEEN DRIVEN FURTHER INLAND THANKS TO N/NW WINDS GUSTING
TO 25 TO 35 KTS. SNOWFALL INTENSITY HAS NOT BEEN EXCESSIVELY
HEAVY...BUT STRONG WINDS ARE CERTAINLY CAUSING SOME BLOWING AND
DRIFTING REDUCING VSBYS TO AROUND 1SM AT TIMES WITHIN THE HEAVIER
BANDS. WILL KEEP ALL ADVISORIES IN TACT FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
DUE MAINLY TO THE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW. STILL EXPECT MOST
LOCATIONS WILL ONLY SEE AN INCH OR TWO OF NEW SNOW...BUT SOME
LOCALIZED PLACES IN FAR NW LWR MICHIGAN SEEING UP TO 4 INCHES.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

...WINDY WITH AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS AND TURNING COLDER TONIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT WESTERN
CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC COUNTIES AND WEST OF I-75 (AND ESPECIALLY
ALONG/WEST OF M-37) IN NORTHERN LOWER...NOT A LOT OF ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED BUT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW MAY CAUSE SOME TRAVEL ISSUES
NORTHWEST LOWER. COLD WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT EASTERN UPPER AND
NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOWER (TEENS BELOW ZERO BY MORNING).

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH A MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL/
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.  ONE WAVE WAS ROLLING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY...A SECOND DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS IOWA/MISSOURI...AND A
THIRD DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHWEST ONTARIO.  18Z SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS 1006MB OCCLUDED LOW OVER SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN...
INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS NORTH INTO LAKE HURON...SECONDARY COLD FRONT
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER/CENTRAL WISCONSIN/NORTHERN IOWA.  SYNOPTIC
SNOWFALL HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA..WITH WEAK RADAR
RETURNS SPREADING INTO NORTHWEST LOWER AS A MIX OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE/FLURRIES (DECENT FREEZING DRIZZLE/FLURRY MIX OUT THE
WINDOW...HAS NICELY ICED UP OUR TOWER WEBCAM).  GUSTY WINDS
SPREADING ACROSS CENTRAL UPPER TO THE NORTHWEST LOWER SHORELINE
COUNTIES.

SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO WILL SWING ACROSS MICHIGAN
TONIGHT...NOT MUCH MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE BUT IT WILL DRAG A
DEEP LAYER THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.  DECENTLY
STRONG NORTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW DEVELOPS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/
EVENING AS THE COLD AIR ARRIVES.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: GUSTY WINDS...LAKE INDUCED SNOW
SHOWERS...BLOWING SNOW...WIND CHILLS.

TONIGHT: EASTERN UPPER...NORTH-NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORY SETS
UP THIS EVENING OFF LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH INDICATIONS THAT WINDS MAY
BECOME ALMOST DUE NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT.  THIS IMPACTS AREAS WEST OF
I-75 FOR LAKE BANDS TONIGHT...AND PERHAPS ONLY FAR WESTERN MACKINAC
COUNTY BY FRIDAY MORNING.  BUT SOME FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ALONG LOW
LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE THAT SETS UP BETWEEN WARMER LAND AND ARCTIC AIR
"HORSESHOEING" AROUND THE EASTERN END OF THE LAKE SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SOME SNOW EAST OF I-75 THIS EVENING...EXPECTED THIS TO TAPER OFF
OVERNIGHT.  INVERSION HEIGHTS REMAIN AROUND 900MB AT MOST DESPITE
DEEP LAYER COOLING...THOUGH CLOUD LAYER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE
SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR A TIME FOR DENDRITE GROWTH.  BUT OVERALL SNOW
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT GIVEN TRANSIENT NATURE OF SNOW BANDS AND
RELATIVELY LIGHT INTENSITY EXPECTED.

NORTHERN LOWER...NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD FAVOR THE US-131
CORRIDOR AND POINTS WEST FOR SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...THOUGH CAN`T
RULE OUT SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER FAR NORTHEAST LOWER AROUND THE
THUNDER BAY BETWEEN ROGERS CITY AND HARRISVILLE.  FOR NORTHWEST
LOWER THERMODYNAMICS A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS
IN THE 850-875MB RANGE AND A DEEPER CLOUD LAYER WITHIN FAVORABLE
SNOWFLAKE GROWTH TEMPERATURES (POTENTIALLY BETTER SNOW RATIOS).
THINK AREAS ALONG-WEST OF THE M-37 CORRIDOR MAY PICK UP 2 TO LOCALLY
4 INCHES OF SNOW OVERNIGHT...EXPECT LITTLE SNOW ELSEWHERE.

WINDS...ALREADY GUSTING TOWARD 30MPH ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER/
NORTHWEST LOWER...AND EXPECT THOSE WINDS TO INCREASE AND EXPAND
EASTWARD THIS EVENING...WITH GUSTS 30-40MPH INLAND AND 40+MPH ALONG
THE NORTHWEST LOWER SHORELINE AND ADJACENT TO WHITEFISH BAY.  SO
BLOWING SNOW WILL BE AN ISSUE MOST AREAS GIVEN RECENT SNOWFALL TODAY
PLUS IN AREAS THAT WILL PICK UP ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL TONIGHT
(ESPECIALLY THE AFOREMENTIONED M-37 AND WEST CORRIDOR IN NORTHWEST
LOWER).  AM CONCERNED ABOUT THE LATTER AREA GIVEN CURRENT/EXPECTED
SNOWFALL AND WIND GUSTS OVER 35 MPH PRODUCING CONSIDERABLE BLOWING
AND DRIFTING.  SO PLAN TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
LEELANAU/BENZIE/MANISTEE/GRAND TRAVERSE/WEXFORD COUNTIES THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING (MAY BE ABLE TO SHUTTER THIS EARLY SINCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT).

TEMPERATURES...EXPECT THE MERCURY TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND MUCH OF INTERIOR NORTHERN
LOWER...WITH WIND CHILLS BY MORNING ALSO FALLING INTO THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO BY THE TIME ARRIVES TO GET THE KIDS OFF TO SCHOOL.  SO
WILL MAKE SURE TO EMPHASIZE THIS AS WELL IN THE AFTERNOON RENDITION
OF THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

...GENERALLY QUIET BUT COLD THROUGH THIS PERIOD...

FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WITH NEARLY
ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY RIDGING FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD SLOWLY
DISSIPATE REMAINING NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT (WHICH WILL BE
BACKING INTO THE WEST NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY)...ESPECIALLY WITH
VERY DRY AIR ADVECTING IN (MEAN 850-700 MB RH FALLS FROM ABOUT 30
PERCENT TO A PALTRY 15 PERCENT). ELSEWHERE...BRIGHT SUNSHINE IS
EXPECTED. IT WILL BE BRISK (ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING) AND COLD WITH
HIGHS ONLY RANGING FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO EASTERN
UPPER TO THE UPPER TEENS NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE.

FRIDAY NIGHT...KIND OF A TOUGH LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING TO THE
EAST AND AN ALBERTA CLIPPER AND ASSOCIATED ARCTIC COLD FRONT BEGIN
TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THINK THERE WILL BE A FEW HOUR
WINDOW IN THE EVENING FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF PRETTY WELL
BEFORE LEVELING OFF OR RISING A BIT OVERNIGHT. WENT WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM NEAR 10 BELOW NORTH EASTERN UPPER TO THE MILDER SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE.

SATURDAY...THE ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES BY TO OUR NORTH AND DRAGS THE
ARCTIC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY. SO THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
REGION (ON THE ORDER OF AN INCH OR LESS) WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW
LAKE EFFECT FOLLOWING FOR THE AFTERNOON. NOT AS COLD TO START WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL IN
THE AFTERNOON AS NORTHWEST WINDS ADVECT IN THE ARCTIC AIR.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUPER SUNDAY...WINDS VEER FROM NORTH NORTHWEST
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE NORTH FOR SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...IT LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER CLIPPER WILL MOVE BY TO OUR SOUTH. IT REMAINS RATHER DRY
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN...SO ANY LAKE EFFECT IS EXPECTED TO BE ON
THE LIGHT SIDE. COLD WITH LOWS RANGING FROM NEAR 10 BELOW NORTH TO
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO SOUTH. HIGHS SUNDAY ONLY IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO THE LOWER TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL SETTLE INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS SUNDAY...WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY TO BEGIN THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...WHILE BROAD UPPER TROUGHING
SETTLES ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE COUNTRY. THIS PATTERN WILL
GENERATE BASICALLY COLD AND DRY CONDS ACRS MUCH OF NRN MI MONDAY...
WHILE SOME LAKE INDUCED SNOWS LINGER OVER THE WRN LAKES AS 850MB
TEMPS REMAIN COLDER THAN -12C AND SFC-850MB WINDS REMAIN WESTERLY.
WILL MENTION A CHANCE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA TUES AND
WED...AS A PLAINS SYSTEM LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES BEFORE EXITING
NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC ON THURSDAY. LAKE EFFECTS WILL AGAIN INFLUENCE
THE WRN LAKES THURSDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING PLAINS
SYSTEM...AS SFC-850MB WINDS TURN NW AND 850MB TEMPS FALL BACK BELOW
-20C.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 618 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

DEVELOPING N/NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL IMPACT MAINLY
TVC AND MBL THRU FRIDAY...OCCASIONALLY DROPPING CONDITIONS TO IFR.
OVERALL CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF NRN LWR MICHIGAN WILL BE MVFR
OUTSIDE OF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. LOW CIGS MAY SCATTER OUT ACROSS
FAR NRN AND NE LWR MICHIGAN (PLN/APN) ON FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS
AND DRIER AIR WORK INTO THE REGION. N/NW WINDS SUSTAINED AT 15 TO
20 KTS WILL GUST TO 30 KTS TONIGHT...DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KTS
ON FRIDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ020-025-026-
     031-032.

LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MLR
NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...SWR
AVIATION...MLR



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