Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 222341

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
741 PM EDT Mon May 22 2017

.NEAR TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 331 PM EDT Mon May 22 2017

High Impact Weather Potential...None.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Vertically-stacked low pressure remains
centered over Southern Ontario this afternoon...with deep cyclonic
flow across the entire Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region. Potent
short wave riding thru the fast 500 mb flow has pushed east of our
CWA...resulting in a rapid diminish in shower activity even across
northern sections where lift and moisture were maximized. A few
breaks in cloud cover are trying to develop in our far southern
counties...but self-destruct sunshine will likely win out with
additional low clouds quickly develop again due to enhancement to
diurnal instability.

As we head into tonight...another spoke of energy will slide thru
mainly Northern Lower Michigan this evening within the fast 500 mb
flow...producing additional scattered showers and serving to
reinforce our low cloud deck. A temporary break in the action
overnight along with a few breaks in cloud cover will allow for some
fog development as temps fall mainly in the 40s for overnight lows
will small dwpt depressions. Another area of low pressure and
associated moisture will lift NE toward Michigan on Tuesday...
producing another round of sct/nmrs showers across mainly Northern
Lower Michigan. Near term models suggest enough diurnal
destabilization during the afternoon (MUCAPES of 500 to 750 J/kg) to
warrant a slight chance of thunder in portions of Northern Lower
Michigan. High temps on Tuesday will warm in the 60s across our
entire CWA.


.SHORT TERM...(Tuesday night through Thursday)
Issued at 331 PM EDT Mon May 22 2017

High Impact Weather Potential...None.

...Remaining unsettled and a little cool...

A cutoff upper level low pressure system will continue to result in
showery and somewhat cool weather across the region. There could be
showers just about anytime during this period as upper level
impulses circulate around the parent upper low. Along with the
showers, lots of clouds will continue to combine with below normal
temperatures to make it seem a little on the dark and dismal side.
Not the kind of weather most people hope for this time of the year,
though any rainfall is beneficial as we haven`t had a whole lot over
the last few weeks. High temperatures will be in the lower and
middle 60s with lows in the middle and upper 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 331 PM EDT Mon May 22 2017

Pattern remains tough to get a handle on for the extended. For most,
the first half of the holiday weekend looks to remain rain free,
with some guidance wanting to include some scattered light showers.
Lots of differences as we get into Sunday and Monday, however.
American guidance is the most aggressive, with rain starting Sunday
afternoon and going through Monday. But given the recent poor
extended performance and continued tough to predict pattern, I don`t
have a lot of faith in it. European guidance isn`t completely dry,
but duration and intensity are much less. Current PoPs are likely a
bit strung out over Sunday and Monday as a result, hopefully there
will be some convergence in solutions in the next few days.
Temperatures are expected to remain on the warm side of normal.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 726 PM EDT Mon May 22 2017

A weak area of low pressure and warm front will lay out in nrn
Michigan tonight, bringing a period of light rain showers to the
airports. No restrictions on VSBY expected with only a few tenths
of rainfall. Gusty winds will fall off to calm/near calm tonight,
and areas of fog are likely to develop with possible stratus into
Tuesday morning, especially with any rainfall/wet ground.
Confidence rather low on how bad the VSBYS will be. A cold front
then pushes into the region tomorrow afternoon for another round
of potential showers into Tuesday evening, with winds turning
more out of the N/NW. However, a weak pressure gradient will more
likely lead to onshore lake breezes.


Issued at 331 PM EDT Mon May 22 2017

Winds and waves will remain at SCA criteria into early evening as
low pressure holds north of Michigan over Southern Ontario.
Conditions will drop below criteria tonight thru Tuesday night as
the low level pressure gradient loosens. Periodic chances of showers
will remain in the forecast thru Tuesday night as a series of low
pressure systems impact the area.


LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 8 PM EDT this evening for LHZ345.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ323-341-


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