Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 222350
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
650 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 344 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...ALONG
WITH PERIODS OF RAIN DUE TO A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CROSSING NORTHERN MICHIGAN. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP AGAIN LATE MONDAY
WITH COLD READINGS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH A
RETURN OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

OVERVIEW: SOMEWHAT ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS TODAY WITH
STRONG JET ENERGY PLOWING INTO THE WEST COAST...AND A SECOND PIECE
OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY ADVANCING THROUGH TEXAS AND SPLIT OFF FROM
THE MAIN FLOW. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL RE-PHASE OVER THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS AND RE-CARVE DEEP TROUGHING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES.

MEANWHILE...STOUT SW FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST HAS PULLED MUCH WARMER/MOIST AIR UP THROUGH THE
MIDWEST AND INTO NRN MICHIGAN TODAY. WARM/MOIST AIR OVER A FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE MID NOVEMBER SNOWPACK HAS...OF COURSE...BROUGHT WIDESPREAD
STRATUS INTO THE REGION...WITH CIGS AND VSBYS CONTINUING TO LOWER
THIS AFTERNOON AS ABOVE FREEZING DEWPOINTS FACILITATE SNOW MELT.

TONIGHT...NOT REALLY MUCH BY WAY OF MEASURABLE PRECIP EXPECTED
THIS EVENING AS WEAK-ISH WARM ADVECTION PERSISTS BUT SHALLOWER
MOISTURE PROFILES SUPPORT JUST OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE (ESPECIALLY
THROUGH THE HIGHER TERRAIN). STRONGER WARM ADVECTION FORCING
AND A SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WITH LIGHT RAIN STARTING TO MAKE A S-N PUSH INTO THE
CWA...ESPECIALLY AFTER 09Z. SO...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
DRIZZLE/FOG FORECAST THIS EVENING AND RAMP UP POPS OVERNIGHT
ACCORDINGLY.

SPEAKING OF THE FOG...ALREADY HAVE A FEW LOCATIONS REPORTING 1/4SM
OR LESS VSBY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY INCH UP TONIGHT BUT
SO WILL DEWPOINTS...BOLSTERED BY ONGOING SNOWMELT/MOISTURE
ADDITION TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER. SO...LOWER VSBYS WILL CERTAINLY BE
AN ISSUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WE MAY ULTIMATELY NEED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. BUT WILL LET EVENING SHIFT SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

...RETURN TO SNOW AND COLD THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: GALES POSSIBLE ON THE GREAT LAKES
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A PERIOD OF INTENSE LAKE ENHANCED
SNOW AND WIND POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT
TIMES.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/EVOLUTION: LOOKING LIKE A MUCH MORE CLASSIC PRE-
THANKSGIVING WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN...WITH A BRIEF
INTRUSION OF SOME MUCH-NEEDED MILDER WEATHER INTO EARLY MONDAY...BUT
QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO SUSTAINED COLD AND LAKE SNOWS
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...AND PERHAPS BEYOND. THIS RATHER RAPID
CHANGE HAS COME ABOUT THANKS TO A STRONGER UPPER LOW NEAR THE
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...FORCING STRONG JET ENERGY OVER THE NORTH
PACIFIC/GULF OF ALASKA REGION AND HELPING BRIEFLY RID THE OVERALL
SETUP OF PERSISTENT RIDGING THAT HAD BEEN IN PLACE OVER THAT REGION
FOR THE PAST 1-2 WEEKS. THAT SAME ENERGY WILL GO INTO THE PRODUCTION
OF A DEEPENING CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH FOR THE EARLY WORK WEEK...WITH
STRONG LOW PRESSURE ANTICIPATED TO WORK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON
MONDAY...USHERING IN ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. AS UPPER
RIDGING AGAIN DEVELOPS TOWARD THE GULF OF ALASKA AND THROUGH MID AND
LATE WEEK...A REINFORCEMENT TO THE NEWLY RETURNED CENTRAL CONUS
TROUGH IS EXPECTED...HELPING UNLOAD YET ANOTHER SHOT OF QUITE COLD
AIR BY LATE NOVEMBER STANDARDS. THIS SETUP WILL OF COURSE FAVOR
VARIOUS BOUTS OF LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW...WITH AT LEAST THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY ACCUMULATION ONCE AGAIN.

BREAKING IN ALL DOWN:

SUNDAY-MONDAY NIGHT: ONE ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER! STRONG HEIGHT
FALLS EMERGING ONTO THE PLAINS STATES WILL INDUCE LEE CYCLOGENESIS
OVER WESTERN KANSAS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH THIS FEATURE
TRACKING QUICKLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE STRAITS WHILE INTENSIFYING
RAPIDLY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE TRENDS HAVE CONTINUED
TO PEG THIS AS A SUB-975MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WHICH CERTAINLY
MAKES SENSE GIVEN TREMENDOUS COUPLED UPPER JET FORCING IN
PLACE...NOT TO MENTION AN INCREASINGLY TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE LAID
OUT JUST UPSTREAM OF THE WESTERN LAKES. THAT SIMPLE FACT RAISES
EYEBROWS ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME QUITE STRONG WINDS AT SOME
POINT AS A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT ROLLS OVERHEAD...BUT MORE ON THAT
BELOW.

FROM A SENSIBLE WEATHER PERSPECTIVE...CAN`T RULE OUT PERIODIC LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE AND FOG THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY AS WE SORT OF SIT IN NO
MANS LAND WITH ONLY WEAK WARM ADVECTION FORCING BUT CONTINUED
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ADVECTION (DEW POINTS CLIMBING THROUGH THE
UPPER 30S AND 40S). FOG COULD OF COURSE BE QUITE DENSE OVER EXISTING
MELTING SNOWPACK. HOWEVER...THE REAL ACTION KICKS INTO GEAR LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ABOVE-MENTIONED JET DYNAMICS
COUPLED WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER WARM ADVECTION ASCENT SHOULD HAVE NO
TROUBLE LIFTING A BAND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA
FROM LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE SETUP AND
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWAT VALUES PUSHING 1 INCH...CERTAINLY EXPECT TO
SEE A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN...WITH OVERALL RAIN AMOUNTS IN THE 0.5-1
INCH RANGE. QUICK-MOVING NATURE OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD LIMIT
THE OVERALL FLOODING POTENTIAL...AS WILL THE FACT THAT CURRENT SNOW
PACK ONLY CONTAINS 1-2 INCHES OF WATER FOR THE HIGHEST DEPTH
LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...SOME RISES CAN CERTAINLY BE EXPECTED ON MANY
AREA RIVERS/STREAMS...WITH A LOW END CHANCE FOR MINOR FLOODING ON
THE MANISTEE/RIFLE RIVERS.

HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD EXIT TO OUR NORTH BY 12Z MONDAY...WITH A STRONG
COLD FRONT MARCHING THROUGH THE CWA INTO MIDDAY. PLENTY OF COLD AIR
BEHIND THAT FEATURE WILL COME RUSHING BACK THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN
INTO THE AFTERNOON....HELPING IGNITE THE LAKE EFFECT MACHINE ONCE
AGAIN RIGHT ON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SETUP CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER
IDEAL FOR A PERIOD OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS AS DEEPER MOISTURE WRAPS
BACK THROUGH THE REGION COURTESY OF ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE
TRAVERSING THE FLOW...EVEN AS OUR PRIMARY UPPER WAVE LIFTS INTO
ONTARIO. BASED ON THE SETUP WITH DEEPER OMEGA INCREASINGLY PEGGED
THROUGH A DEEPENING DGZ...WOULDN`T BE AT ALL SHOCKED TO SEE SOME
SPOTS PICK UP SNOWFALL IN EXCESS OF 4-6 INCHES (NOTE: VERY EARLY
GUESS)...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS COURTESY OF A
LINGERING TIGHTER GRADIENT...HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED.
TEMPS OF COURSE WILL CRASH FROM THE MILDER 40S (MAYBE EVEN SOME 50S
EASTERN SPOTS MONDAY MORNING) BACK THROUGH THE 20S INTO THE NIGHT.
WELCOME BACK WINTER!

TUESDAY-SATURDAY: PLENTY OF LITTLE ISSUES TO BE IRONED OUT DURING
THIS PERIOD...BUT THE OVERALL GIST IS FOR A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS AS OVERALL UPPER TROUGHING DOMINATES THE REGION...REINFORCED
AT TIMES BY THE PASSAGE OF INDIVIDUAL WEAKER SHORTWAVES. STILL
LOOKING GOOD FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT
INTO TUESDAY AS DECENT LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS WHILE WE
CONTINUE TO ADVECT SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PUT AN END TO THAT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO MUCH OF
WEDNESDAY...WITH PERHAPS NOT MUCH OF ANYTHING ONGOING AS A NARROW
CORRIDOR OF MUCH DRIER AIR ARRIVES AND THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL REGIME
MODERATES BRIEFLY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT NORTHERN STREAM WAVE ARRIVING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT A PERIOD OF SNOW ONCE AGAIN APPEARS
POSSIBLE FOR MANY AREAS. NEXT DUMP OF COLDER AIR SHOULD ARRIVE
TOWARD LATE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND...THOUGH THERE ARE MANY FLAVORS OF
WIND REGIMES IN THE GUIDANCE SO FAR OUT. THUS...CHANCES FOR SNOW
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN BUT NOTHING SPECIFIC.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 650 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

IFR TO LIFR IN STRATUS/FOG/DZ/RA. LLWS.

WARM/MOIST AIR CONTINUES TO ENTER THE REGION. CROSSING OVER COLD
GROUND AND SNOW COVER...THE RESULT IS PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG.
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST...WITH APN
BEING SOMEWHAT BETTER OFF THAN THE OTHER SITES THANSK TO
DOWNSLOPING LOW-LEVEL WINDS. SOME DZ POSSIBLE AT JUST ABOUT ANY
TIMES...-RA WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AS MOISTURE DEEPENS.

LIGHTISH S TO SW SURFACE WINDS. STRONGER S TO SW WINDS OFF THE
DECK WILL RESULT IN LLWS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 344 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...ALONG AND JUST BEHIND A WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
LAKE MICHIGAN...BUT OVERALL STABILITY WILL HELP MITIGATE ANY THREAT
FOR GALES. STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL MARCH UP THE LAKE
MICHIGAN SPINE AND INTO EASTERN ONTARIO ON MONDAY...WITH A VERY
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING ALONG WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION.
THAT SETUP SHOULD DELIVER A ROUND OF GALES TO MOST IF NOT ALL WATERS
LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH A ROUND OF RAIN CHANGING
TO SNOW. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE INTO TUESDAY...AND ESPECIALLY
BY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WORKS INTO THE AREA.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     LHZ345>349.

LM...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     LMZ323-341-342-344>346.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LMZ323.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LMZ341-342-
     344>346.

LS...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ALM
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...LAWRENCE


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