Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 220758

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
358 AM EDT WED JUN 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 357 AM EDT Wed Jun 22 2016

IMPACTS: None. Will it even rain?

Synoptic pattern and observations:

The loss of daytime instability along a sfc trough that is now
across the SE CWA, has resulted in the demise of the isolated to
scattered rain showers we had last evening. Relative higher pressure
and drier air continues to work in from the NW now, with just some
increased high level clouds sneaking in toward the GTV Bay region.
This is in advance of weak vorticity maxima and low to mid level WAA
regime within the core of the upper jet stream from central MN
through SW lower Michigan. All of the main action is associated
along and north of a sfc warm front which is draped from low
pressure in the dakotas, through SW Iowa and srn Il. An axis of
elevated instability and deeper moisture just north of there, buried
in the stronger mid level flow and underneath right entrance region
dynamics of the upper jet, was a band of showers and storms that
were training over the same locations. This was resulting in flash
flooding in portions of srn MN through NE Iowa.

Synoptic pattern evolution:

The big question for us is, will it even rain? Several data sets
suggesting that we will not. From a pattern perspective, the sfc
high pressure and drier air linger over us through today, while mid
and upper level clouds will generally be increasing from the SW. The
low pressure, warm front, deeper moisture and instability do all
creep a bit northward, but will remain well south of nrn lower
Michigan. The upper jet dynamics, stronger WAA and deepest moisture
and instability will all power through Eastern Iowa and the northern
portions of IL/IN/OH where strong to severe storms with all the
fixins of hail/damaging wind and even tornados are expected. While
there will be some WAA rainfall that works in across srn lower late
today and tonight, our only chance for rain lies with a broadening
upper trough axis arriving mainly late this evening into the
overnight. Will only go with a slight chance for rain across nrn
lower, eastern upper should have no worries.

Highs today will range from the lower 70s in eastern upper to the
upper 70s further south. Afternoon humidity will be down into the
upper 20s/lower 30s percent across NE lower, but light winds
(trending toward lake breezes this afternoon) will limit elevated
fire danger concerns.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 357 AM EDT Wed Jun 22 2016

IMPACTS: Minimal

better forcing and stronger storms Wednesday night will pass south
of the area. By Thursday morning, surface high pressure will move
into the Great Lakes, with height rises building in from the west.
By Friday morning, a shortwave currently visible in WV imagery off
the Alaskan/British Columbia coast will move inland. This will help
develop surface low pressure in the lee of the Canadian Rockies, and
currently looks to track along the border and lift through James Bay
early next week. H5 heights will continue to build ahead of this
system, with frontal passage expected in the Sunday/Monday
timeframe. Broad ridging will setup once again behind this system,
spanning from the West Coast to the Great Lakes by mid-week.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: Any rain chances, particularly
for southern portions of CWA, Wednesday night into Thursday
morning. Precip chances with frontal passage Sunday/Monday.

ASSOCIATED WEATHER: The system generating a severe threat for
Wednesday night continues to stay to our south. Latest runs move it
a bit more south, and take the rain chances for the southern tier of
the CWA with it. Will remove the inherited low end PoPs in
conjunction with surrounding offices. Temperatures will begin to
climb once again through the weekend, as some areas again push 90s.
Another cold front will arrive late in the weekend with the low
pressure system moving through Canada. This will bring the next shot
at rain. Moisture support looks to be most favorable Sunday, but the
best forcing will be displaced north. This system has a similar look
to the one that came through late Sunday this week, where it is
strong upstream but falls apart over the lakes and then picks back
up again to our east. It looks to have slowed a bit from previous
runs, so it may be able to take advantage of some daytime heating.
There is a possibility of some lingering cloudiness and showers into
Tuesday as shortwave impulses pinwheel around the low in James Bay.
After the warm weekend and start to the week, temperatures will
return to near normal going into mid-week.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 152 AM EDT Wed Jun 22 2016

...VFR conditions through this TAF cycle...

Patchy VFR clouds will clear out through the night while drier air
and sfc high pressure settle in over nrn Michigan. Maybe some
few-sct cumulus mainly around APN this afternoon, otherwise a slow
increase in mid-high level clouds can be expected into Wednesday
evening as low pressure works into nrn Illinois. Chance for rain
in nrn Michigan have seriously lessened, to the point where it is
no longer anticipated. Light winds through the forecast, with a
tendency for lake breezes this afternoon. Winds do come around
more out E/ENE Wednesday night.


Issued at 357 AM EDT Wed Jun 22 2016

...Minimal marine concerns through the end of the work week...

High pressure lingers over the nearshore waters today, while low
pressure and strong to severe storms roll through far srn Lake
Michigan. Light winds will trend toward lake breezes this afternoon.
The pressure gradient stays loose with light winds, especially
Thursday and Friday with high pressure firmly over the region and
more lake breezes. Not expecting precipitation over this entire time
period, outside of a slight chance tonight across the srn nearshore
waters of Lake Michigan and Huron.


.APX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


SHORT TERM...Dickson
LONG TERM...Mayhew
MARINE...Dickson is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.