Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 291925
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
325 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

BROAD TROUGHINESS LINGERS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH ONE STRONGER
SHORT WAVE CENTER AND BATCH OF PRECIP MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER
LAKES REGION. ANOTHER STRONG WAVE IS DROPPING DOWN THROUGH THE
ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA/NW GREAT LAKES REGION WHERE A NICE LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS HAS TAKEN OFF IN THE LAST FEW HOURS AND WILL BE
TRACKING SSE THROUGH WISCONSIN ALONG A MODEST INSTABILITY AXIS.

BUT ACROSS THIS CWA...IT/S ANOTHER DAY SURROUNDED BY CONVECTION
FOR THE MOST PART. THAT SAID...WE HAVE SEEN SOME SFC DEWPOINT
RECOVERY AND BUILD UP OF CU UP INTO NRN LOWER MICHIGAN IN THE LAST
FEW HOURS...AND SCT SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN
THAT ARE TRYING TO CREEP NORTHWARD.

TONIGHT...CU FIELD ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN IS CONTRACTING INLAND
AS MARINE LAYER/LAKE BREEZES MAKE THEIR DAILY INLAND PUSH. SPC
MESOANALYSIS PAGE REVEALS UPWARD OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG MLCAPE AND
LIMITED MLCINH. THUS WITH THE INLAND PRESSING MARINE
LAYER/COLLIDING BOUNDARIES...THERE IS STILL AMPLE OPPORTUNITY FOR
SHOWERS TO POP ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. BEST CHANCES ESSENTIALLY
ALONG THE WESTERN "SPINE" OF LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTH OF M-72 WHERE
BEST INSTABILITY/CONVERGENCE WILL BE HAD.

THEN...CONVECTION WILL EVENTUALLY RUN IT/S COURSE THROUGH THE
EVENING. UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS AND DEVELOPING SFC LOW
PRESSURE WILL ULTIMATELY SWING INTO LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL PUSH REMNANT PRECIP ACROSS WISCONSIN TOWARD THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CWA TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE.

FORECAST CHALLENGE: RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

(6/30)TUESDAY...AS THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS AND COLD FRONT MOVE INTO
THE FORECAST AREA, IN THE MORNING, WILL EXPECT THAT THE INSTABILITY
WILL SLOWLY INCREASE WITH SOME THE HEATING PREFRONTAL. HOWEVER,
THUNDER LOOKS TO BE A LOW CHANCE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH NE LOWER
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON, AND SFC TEMPERATURE DON`T GET MUCH ABOVE 70F
WEST OF I-75 AND NORTH OF M-32. SO WILL CONTINUE THE THUNDER
POSSIBILITIES IN THE HIGHLANDS, WHILE THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE WILL
PROBABLY JUST HAVE RAIN SHOWERS. TUESDAY NIGHT, THE FRONT HAS MOVED
THROUGH AND ONLY TRAILING SHOWERS JUST BEHIND THE FRONT ARE ALL
THAT`S LEFT IN THE EVENING. WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES AND THE
MOISTURE FROM THE RAIN, WILL EXPECT FOG TO FORM AS THE WIND DROPS TO
UNDER 5 MPH OVERNIGHT.

(7/1)WEDNESDAY...AT THIS POINT, THINK THAT THE 20 POPS FOR NE LOWER
SEEM TO BE PUSHING IT. THINK THAT THE DAY TURNS OUT DRY EVERYWHERE.
HOWEVER, MORE THAN ONE MODEL IS SHOWING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
THE SE COUNTIES WHICH COULD HELP TO GET THINGS GOING A LITTLE.
OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA AND SQUASHES
ALL CONVECTION OVERNIGHT.

(7/2)THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE DAY, SO WILL HAVE WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH THE BUILDING
500 MB RIDGE AND THE SFC HIGH.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE.
BLENDED MODEL SOLUTIONS HINTING AT SOME CHANCE POPS OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT I DON/T SEE SUPPORT FOR THIS WITH EXPECTED RIDGING
SETTING UP. REMOVING THE POPS FOR MOST AREAS FOR NOW...IF SUPPORT
SHOWS ITSELF IN THE COMING DAYS WILL ADD IT BACK IN. OVERALL
SHAPING UP TO BE A PLEASANT HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...WHICH IS MID 70S FOR THE
U.P. AND UPPER 70S IN NORTHERN LOWER. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
LOW PRESSURE NEAR HUDSON BAY WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
EARLY IN THE WEEK...WITH SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

SCT-BKN CU NOW DEVELOPING ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN...AND THAT
WILL BE THE TREND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT THE TERMINAL
SITES. BKN VFR CIGS MOST LIKELY AT TVC/PLN AND A FEW POP-UP
SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

DIMINISHING CLOUDS AGAIN TONIGHT ALONG WITH CALM WINDS. BUT
THICKER VFR CLOUD COVER WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY
ALONG WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWERS.

WINDS...REMAINING LARGELY UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH TUESDAY...DOMINATED
BY LAKE BREEZE WIND DIRECTIONS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

SOME GUSTINESS/CHOPPINESS OUT THERE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
WINDS/WAVES SUBSIDING THIS EVENING. LIGHT WINDS AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
BUT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
AS SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR SPILLS INTO NRN MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...NO
HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...JSL



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