Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 120519
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
119 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT THU SEP 11 2014

WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE...WITH A COUPLE OF WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO INFLUENCE
NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SOME PATCHY FROST
EXPECTED. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL TAKE ITS PLACE FRIDAY
NIGHT...DELIVERING A CHILLY RAIN FOR MOST. THAT SYSTEM WILL GIVE WAY
TO QUIET WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...BUT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS EXPECTED BY MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 702 PM EDT THU SEP 11 2014

DIURNAL CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED QUICKLY WITH LOWER SUN ANGLE OVER
UPPER MICHIGAN AND SKIES HAVE CLEARED ALL THE WAY TO JUST NORTH OF
THE STRAITS. CLEARING WILL LIKELY HAVE A MUCH SLOWER GO OF
THINGS SOUTH OF THE BRIDGE OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/LAKE
CLOUD CONTRIBUTION AIDS CONTINUED MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. BEST CHANCE
OF CLEARING LIKELY DOWN THE I-75 CORRIDOR...WITH N/NE FLOW KEEPING
THICKER CLOUDS CLOSER TO THE COASTS. DRIZZLE ALSO CONTINUING AND
HAVE EXPANDED THAT MORE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. OVERALL...A
DAMP AND CHILLY NIGHT IN NORTHERN MICHIGAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT THU SEP 11 2014

...RELATIVELY COOL NIGHT WITH VARIABLE CLOUD COVER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL. FEW POCKETS OF FROST
POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN AREAS THAT CAN STAY "THE MOST CLOUD-FREE".

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: 994MB SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN QUEBEC
WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.  STRONG CYCLONIC GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS
MICHIGAN BETWEEN THIS LOW AND A COLD 1039MB HIGH OVER SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF BRITISH COLUMBIA/ALBERTA.  STRONG/DEEP LAYER COLD
ADVECTION CROSSING THE UPPER LAKES BRINGING PLENTY OF CLOUDS TO
NORTHERN MICHIGAN ALONG WITH SOME MISTY DRIZZLE.  SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WAS CROSSING NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND PUSHING SOME PRECIPITATION TO
THE NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR.

GRADIENT RELAXES TONIGHT AND BECOMES MORE ANTICYCLONIC AS WESTERN
NORTH AMERICA HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN.  MEANWHILE...A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE PLAINS
EARLY FRIDAY AND PUSH INTO THE MIDWEST BY FRIDAY EVENING.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
PRECIPITATION EVOLUTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH
STARTING FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT: CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WILL BE PROBLEMATIC...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER GIVEN TRAJECTORIES OF COOL AIR OVER WARMER WATER.
ACTUALLY A LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTIC FOR EASTERN UPPER...CLOUD COVER
UPSTREAM ACROSS ONTARIO GETTING MORE OF A DIURNAL COMPONENT TO IT
AND LOW LEVEL FLOW GETTING MORE OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT.  SO STILL
THINK SOME CLEARING ACROSS EASTERN UPPER LIKELY TONIGHT...BETTER
CHANCES CLOSER TO THE ST. MARY`S RIVER.  NORTHERN LOWER WILL LIKELY
REMAIN ON THE CLOUDIER SIDE...BETTER CHANCE FOR BREAKS WILL BE DOWN
THE MIDDLE ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR.  ALSO SUSPECT PERIODIC DRIZZLE
WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.  OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON THE COMBINATION OF CLEARING AND WINDS
DECOUPLING...A NOT UNREASONABLE ASSUMPTION ACROSS EASTERN UPPER BUT
EVEN ACROSS INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO THE 30S GIVEN THE RIGHT SET OF
CIRCUMSTANCES.  DEW POINTS ARE STILL IN THE 40S...SO TEMPERATURES
NOT LIKELY TO DROP LIKE A ROCK.

FRIDAY: WILL START WITH LINGERING STRATOCUMULUS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHERN LOWER...MAYBE SOME DRIZZLE NORTHWEST LOWER (MAINLY WEST OF
THE M-37 CORRIDOR)...WITH SYNOPTIC MID CLOUDS SPREADING IN FROM THE
WEST ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST.
AREA OF PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THIS WAVE EXPECTED TO SPREAD
NORTHEAST ACROSS WISCONSIN/LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...THOUGH DRY LOW LAYERS WILL INITIALLY NEED TO BE OVERCOME.
WILL PAINT AFTERNOON POPS MAINLY WEST OF I-75 IN NORTHERN
LOWER...WITH A BETTER RAIN THREAT AS STRONGER DYNAMICS APPROACH
FRIDAY NIGHT. STILL COOL FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT THU SEP 11 2014

...FALL WEATHER HERE TO STAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOTHING TOO BAD. NICE LITTLE COMPACT
SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT...WITH SOME
LOUSY AND CHILLY HIGH SCHOOL FOOTBALL WEATHER...AND PERHAPS A THREAT
FOR WATERSPOUTS.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/EVOLUTION: STOP ME IF YOU`VE HEARD THIS ONE BEFORE.
BROAD UPPER TROUGHING ENCOMPASSING THE GREAT LAKES...WITH THE
PATTERN BECOMING QUITE STABLE AND PROMOTING AN EXTENDED STRETCH OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. SOUNDS LIKE BASICALLY ANY PERIOD OF WEATHER OVER
THE PAST 11 MONTHS. INDEED THE ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO BE UP TO ITS
OLD TRICKS AGAIN...WITH BROAD UPPER TROUGHING ALREADY IN PLACE AND
EXPECTED TO GO NOWHERE OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS...COURTESY OF A QUITE
STABLE 4 WAVE HEMISPHERIC REGIME. FROM A BASIC PATTERN PERSPECTIVE...
DEEP CLOSED TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE ALEUTIANS AT THE MOMENT IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FILL WHILE MEANDERING OVER FAR SOUTHERN ALASKA
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...MAINTAINING FAIRLY STRONG RIDGING ALONG THE
PACIFIC COAST AND CONTINUING TO PROMOTE PERSISTENT DOWNSTREAM
TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA THROUGH LATE WEEK OF NEXT
WEEK. WITHIN THAT MEAN TROUGH WILL BE A COUPLE OF BETTER SHORTWAVES
MAKING A RUN AT THE AREA...WITH THE FIRST ARRIVING FRIDAY NIGHT AND
ANOTHER TOWARD THE DAY ON MONDAY.

A LOOK AT THE FORECAST SPECIFICS:

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY: HANG-BACK NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS MORNING WILL BE MAKING ITS APPROACH...
SLOWLY SHARPENING UP AS IT DOES. NICE LITTLE BAND OF ENHANCED QG
UPWARD FORCING IN COMBINATION WITH ANOTHER SLUG OF MOISTURE WORKING
NORTH SHOULD DELIVER A NORTHWARD DEVELOPING AXIS OF LIGHT RAIN
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT...
AMBIENT AIRMASS LOOKS QUITE DRY BELOW 700MB COURTESY OF PERSISTENT
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW...SUGGESTING THAT OVERALL PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE
ON THE LIGHT SIDE. HOWEVER...ENHANCED AXIS OF FGEN FORCING SCRAPING
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA MAY ACT TO GIVE A BOOST TO THOSE
TOTALS. NO MATTER THE FINAL RESULT...IT DOES LOOK LIKE IT IS GOING
TO RAIN FOR MANY SPOTS...PARTICULARLY NORTHERN LOWER...WITH JUST
PLAIN DAMP AND VERY CHILLY CONDITIONS IN TIME FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
MANY HIGH SCHOOL FOOTBALL GAMES (TEMPS DOWN IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE
40S AND PERHAPS EVEN A TOUCH LOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN).

THE FLIP SIDE OF THIS SETUP IS THAT OVERNIGHT LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
SHOULD BE HELD IN CHECK...SO NO REAL THREAT FOR FROST. WITH THAT
SAID...THERE COULD BE A WATERSPOUT RISK ON LAKES MICHIGAN AND HURON
WHERE WARMER WATER TEMPS PROMOTE DEEPER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...HELPED
ALONG BY SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL COOLING (H5 TEMPS DIPPING TO AROUND
-25C). IN FACT...FORECAST RAOBS OVER THE WATER BY 06Z AREN`T TOO
SHABBY AT ALL...FEATURING WITH EQL UP AROUND 30KFT AND GENERALLY
LIGHT FLOW...COUPLED WITH THE OFTEN-NEEDED LAKE INDUCED LOW LEVEL
BOUNDARY/THERMAL TROUGH WAVERING NORTH THROUGH LAKES MICHIGAN AND
HURON. WITH ALL OF THAT SAID...A WATERSPOUT CHANCE IS MORE THAN
WARRANTED AND WILL REMAIN.

CLOUD TRENDS ARE TRICKY HEADING INTO SATURDAY. THINNING DEEPER
MOISTURE ALOFT IS A GIVEN WITH THE DEPARTING UPPER WAVE...BUT THE
LOW LEVELS ARE (AS USUAL) A CHALLENGE. AIRMASS REMAINS PLENTY COLD
TO SUPPORT A LAKE COMPONENT...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH CONTINUED VERY
CHILLY READINGS ALOFT...HAVE TO BELIEVE WE WILL SEE ANY PEAKS OF
SUNSHINE ELIMINATED AS A CU/STRATOCU DECK FLARES UP. BASED ON CLIMO
OF THESE SETUPS IN NORTHERN MICHIGAN...MOSTLY CLOUDY LOOKS LIKE THE
WAY TO GO...WITH HIGHS JUST A TOUCH WARMER THAN FRIDAY`S READINGS
GIVEN VERY (AND I MEAN VERY) SLOW MODERATION OF THE THERMAL REGIME.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT: CLOUD ISSUES CONTINUE...BUT THEN
AGAIN...WHAT`S NEW FOR THIS AREA? LOW LEVEL RIDGING WILL WORK ACROSS
THE AREA LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING...WITH A WEAK GRADIENT
THEORETICALLY PROMOTING REDUCED MOISTURE FLUX OFF THE WATER AND
BRINGING ENHANCED CHANCES FOR CLEAR SKIES. THAT IS PARTICULARLY TRUE
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A NIL GRADIENT IN PLACE AND IT WOULD APPEAR AT
LEAST MANY AREAS STAND A SHOT AT CLEARING SKIES. THAT MAY BE LEAST
TRUE NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE UP INTO WESTERN CHIPPEWA AND
MACKINAC COUNTIES WHERE BROADENING SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW GETS GOING
AFTER 06Z. ELSEWHERE...HOWEVER...TEMPS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE TROUBLE
DIPPING BACK INTO THE 30S BUT AS USUAL...CONFIDENCE IS REDUCED BY
THE FACT THAT IT`S NOT COMPLETELY IMPOSSIBLE WE MAINTAIN SOME SNEAKY
STRATUS BENEATH A LOWERING INVERSION. STILL...THERE IS DEFINITELY
FROST POTENTIAL FOR MANY SPOTS...AND I WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED TO SEE
SOME OF THE USUAL COLDER SPOTS EVEN END UP IN THE UPPER 20S FOR A
TIME.

MONDAY-THURSDAY: NEXT UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS
TARGETED FOR ARRIVAL JUST IN TIME TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK.
OVERALL FORCING AND MOISTURE AT THIS JUNCTURE DON`T LOOK TERRIBLY
EXCITING BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS LOOKS ON TRACK. BRIEF ARRIVAL
OF MORE PRONOUNCED THERMAL RIDGING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MAY
TEMPER LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO SOME DEGREE BUT SOME POTENTIAL IS THERE
BASED ON THE SPECIFICS THAT UNFOLD. THEREAFTER...LOW LEVEL RIDGING
IS PROGGED TO WORK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH MIDWEEK...SETTING UP WHAT SHOULD BE A DECENT STRETCH OF FALL
WEATHER. QUICK SHOT OF BETTER COLD ADVECTION ON TUESDAY MAY DELIVER
SOME CU/STRATOCU ISSUES AND SHOULD ALSO HELP PUSH HIGH TEMPS BACK
DOWN A FEW MORE DEGREES. LOW TEMPS INTO MIDWEEK SHOULD BE JUST A
TOUCH WARMER THAN THOSE THE NEXT COUPLE NIGHTS...BUT CAN ALREADY
FORESEE A CHANCE FOR SOME OF THE COLDER SPOTS TO END UP BACK IN THE
LOW 30S...SIMPLY BASED ON THE EXPECTED PATTERN. WILL LOWER CONSENSUS
NUMBERS A FEW DEGREES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS IDEA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 113 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014

...POSSIBLE MVFR TONIGHT WITH LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING FRIDAY
NIGHT...

DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTH AND MINIMAL TRACK OVER THE
WATER RESULTS IN LESS INSTABILITY AND CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AT PLN.
BELIEVE SOME CLEARING MAY TAKE PLACE BY 09-10Z THERE. OTHERWISE
THERE IS A LONGER FETCH OF COLDER AIR OVER THE WARMER LAKES FOR
CONTINUED LAKE GENERATED CLOUDS. AN INVERSION IS MUCH MORE STRONG
OVER THE APN/TVC/MBL AIRPORTS AND FEEL THAT CLOUDY SKIES WILL LAST
INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. SOME BREAKS DEVELOPING IN THIS OVERCAST
INTO THE DAY...BUT A BKN SKY STILL EXPECTED. MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN INTO THE EVENING WITH THE APPROACH OF A
DISTURBANCE ALOFT.

ALL CLOUDS WILL BE VFR...EXCEPT FOR A PERIOD OF POTENTIAL MVFR
INTO DAYBREAK AS THIS MOISTURE COOLS FROM ALOFT AND DEVELOPS
DOWNWARD.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT UNDER 10KTS AND FROM THE NORTH WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE JUST TO OUR WEST.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT THU SEP 11 2014

GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND HIGHER WAVES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING...GRADUALLY SUBSIDING OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE WORKS INTO THE REGION. THAT HIGH WILL PROVIDE A STRETCH
OF LIGHT WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BUT
WITH A FEW WATERSPOUTS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A FAST-MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVES. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN SUNDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
POSSIBLE FOR A TIME LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN TO THE WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING A RETURN TO
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW WAVES LATER MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SYNOPSIS...LAWRENCE
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...JPB






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