Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 221042

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
642 AM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Issued at 642 AM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Have had to expand morning pops eastward into n central lower MI,
reflecting current radar trends. Also worth noting that when
precip arrived at the office within the past was snow
(our first flakes of the season). Given current temps, snow risk
appears to be largely elevation-dependent. Will mention a few
flakes over some higher terrain locales this morning.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 317 AM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016

High impact weather potential: none.

Narrow ridge of high pressure sits from James Bay, to central upper
MI, to near STL. The ridge axis will only slowly drift overhead thru
this evening, while the center of the high reforms in the deep
south. This will eventually lead to backing low-level flow and warm
advection, eliminating overlake instability. This process is of
course guaranteed to happen slower than expected. Precip/cloud
trends are the main concerns.

Today...1000-850mb winds are already slowly backing to the nnw. They
will be nw by midday, and then wobble between wnw and nw. This will
kick the 850mb thermal trof east, and result in steady warm
advection today. By 00z, 850mb temps will be at or above freezing
across northern MI. But shallow instability will (of course) linger
longer than that. There is also the matter of the warm-advection mid
cloud deck upstream, from far western Ontario to ne Iowa/sw WI. That
will slowly advance into northern MI from midday thru the afternoon,
just when we might be breaking down the lower clouds more

Given radar trends, will be hanging onto morning showers in parts of
nw and ne lower MI. These should dwindle this afternoon, with
falling inversion heights and diminishing instability. However,
outside of parts of ne lower and extreme eastern upper MI, there
will be more clouds than sun, most of the day. Max temps will be
limited as a result, with highs in the upper 40s to around 50f.

Tonight...high pressure remaining in the deep south will maintain a
wnw fetch, and slow warm advection in the low levels. A 500mb ridge
axis will move overhead by morning, in advance of a low-amplitude
trof digging toward far northern MN. Though the initial nnw-sse
oriented plume of mid-level moisture is expected to move off to the
east, it will be replaced by a wnw-ese oriented one in advance of
that shortwave. And with cooler/lake-moistened still lingering below
4.5k ft, am still not anticipating drastic clearing. However, a dry
layer between 5k and 10k ft should keep any precip to a sprinkle at
worst. Mostly cloudy skies remain likely. That will keep min temps
up though, with lows only slipping into the upper 30s to lower 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 317 AM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Sunday through Monday night...

High impact weather potential: None.

Pattern synopsis/Expected evolution: Deep troughing continues to be
centered over the eastern Great Lakes tonight with surface low
pressure tracking northward along the eastern seaboard. Weak ridging
aloft will gradually make its way toward northward Michigan;
however, becoming dampened before reaching the area as a shortwave
treks southeastward from Canada into the region on Sunday. The next
feature of note beyond the weekend is a a wave that exits the
Intermountain West by the middle of next week with cyclogenesis
ongoing, perhaps impacting portions of northern Michigan by Wednesday-

Sunday - Sunday night: A rather weak, low amplitude wave is progged
to slide through the northern Great Lakes during the second half of
Sunday. While moisture and overall forcing remains paltry, at least
scattered showers look possible despite the waning nature of the
system, especially across the northern two-thirds of the area
through Sunday evening. A warm up is on tap for the daylight hours
with temps ranging through the 50s...perhaps tagging 60 degrees
across the far southeast. However, the warm up is short-lived as
cooler air filters into the region behind the aforementioned
shortwave with H8 temps falling to roughly -4 C by 12z Monday.
Wouldn`t be surprised to see a few NW flow lake effect rain showers
to be ongoing Sunday night with sufficient over lake instability,
but with a lack of appreciable moisture, they`ll likely remain
fairly scattered.

Monday - Monday night: Cool air overhead continues with the threat
for a few light lake effect rain showers across the typical NW flow
lake belts of northwest Lower/eastern Upper. Shower chances slowly
wane through the afternoon hours as moisture continues to shift east
and mid-level temperatures begin to ever so slowly warm, but as
happens so often, could see a few showers (and at the very least,
cloud cover) linger throughout the majority of the day. As a result,
have opted to include low end chance PoPs through the afternoon
hours. Highs ranging from the mid-40s north to the low 50s south and

Extended (Tuesday through Friday)...

The main weather-maker for the extended period continues to revolve
around an area of developing low pressure progged to move from the
Rockies eastward toward the mid-Mississippi Valley, bringing another
threat for precip to portions of northern MI Wednesday - Thursday.
Otherwise, near normal temperatures are anticipated throughout with
highs mainly varying from the low-mid 50s.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 642 AM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016


Lingering lake effect precip will come to an end as warmer air
slowly works into the region. However, clouds will tend to linger,
especially at TVC. Cigs are expected to remain mainly VFR, though
a brief period of MVFR could be possible most anywhere this

Northwest winds today, might be a touch on the brisk side at APN.
Light winds tonight.


Issued at 317 AM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Somewhat breezy n to nw winds will persist today, backing nw to w
tonight and Sunday. This occurs as high pressure slowly moves
across the deep south. A few advisory-level gusts may be seen
today, especially along the Lake Huron coast of ne lower MI. Am
not planning on posting and small craft advisories at this time,
though will be evaluating further in the next hour.




LONG TERM...Gillen
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