Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 100753
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
353 AM EDT THU APR 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT THU APR 10 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA TODAY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
SOME SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
QUICKLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...LASTING THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...BRINGING A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER. ANOTHER QUICK MOVING
SYSTEM MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD RAINS EXPECTED BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. COOLER
AIR ARRIVES EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK...PERHAPS BRINGING A WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT THU APR 10 2014

...BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS AND MAYBE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER THIS
MORNING...

IMPACTS: RAIN AND SIMILAR TEMPERATURES TO YESTERDAY LEADING TO MORE
SNOW MELT AND POSSIBLE LOCALIZED/MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING.

CONFIDENCE: LOW CONFIDENCE IN A SOLID BAND OF SHOWERS PUSHING
THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA AND GIVING EVERY COMMUNITY A PERIOD OF RAIN.
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST EASTERN UPPER SEEING A
PERIOD OF RAIN WITH THIS BAND TOWARD DAYBREAK AND EARLY AFTER
SUNRISE.

CURRENT WEATHER AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN/EVOLUTION:

POTENT SHORTWAVE CROSSING ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING WITH NICE
SWATH OF UPPER DIVERGENCE...AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WITH APPROACH OF A SHALLOW SFC COLD FRONT. THIS OCCURRING IN
STRENGTHENING MID/LOW LEVEL JETS WHICH IS AIDING IN GROWING H8
THETA-E CONVERGENCE. LAPSE RATES ALOFT ARE APPROACHING 7.5C/KM WHERE
EARLIER THIS INSTABILITY AND ALL FORCING WAS RESULTING IN A BROKEN
BAND OF SHOWERS JUST UPSTREAM. THIS BAND OF SHOWERS ALSO DISPLAYED A
POCKET OF THUNDER WHICH WAS CROSSING WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS IS
NOT AN OVERLY MOIST AIR MASS...WITH TEMP/DEW POINT SPREADS RATHER
LARGE...BUT THE FORCING IS FAIRLY STRONG. THINGS CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN THROUGH DAYBREAK...AND AM EXPECTING THE BAND OF SHOWERS
TO FILL IN MORE THROUGH THIS TIME...WHILE ALSO PUSHING THROUGH
EASTERN UPPER. MUCH OF THE FORCING WILL BE CROSSING NE LOWER LATE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SHALLOW COLD ADVECTION AND DRYING IN THE
LOW LEVELS FOLLOWING BEHIND. NOT SO MUCH COLD ADVECTION...AND THE
LOW LEVELS ARE LOOKING TO REMAIN RATHER MIXED/UNSTABLE INTO
AFTERNOON...TAPPING SOME 30KT WINDS AT 875-900 MB. WEAKER SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY ARRIVES TONIGHT WITH SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE SEEN IN THE
MID LEVELS. THIS VERIFIED ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS CENTRAL
CANADA.

WEATHER EXPECTATIONS:

BAND OF RAIN WILL BECOME MORE FILLED IN AS IT ROLLS ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER AND POSSIBLE FAR NW LOWER JUST BEFORE SUNRISE...WITH MAYBE A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER TO BE HEARD. WHILE THE NRN EXTENT OF THE BAND
OF SHOWERS HOLDS TOGETHER AS IT CROSSES THE FAR NRN CWA/NORTH OF
M-68...THE SRN EXTENT WILL LIKELY SEE S DECREASE IN COVERAGE...AS
THE BETTER FORCING LIFTS EAST AND NORTH. REGARDLESS...SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO ROLL ACROSS MUCH OF NRN LOWER...BUT LEAST
CHANCES FORESEEN ACROSS THE GTV BAY REGION. THE AIR MASS IN THE LOW
LEVEL WILL DRY OUT IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS UP TO
20-25 KTS...BUT THIS IS SNEAKY. STRENGTH OF WINDS VERY DEPENDENT ON
THE DEPTH OF MIXING...AS 40-45KTS SEEN UP AROUND 45KTS IN THE NRN
CWA. COULD BE BREEZIER...BUT WITH SHALLOW COOLER AIR...WILL KEEP THE
GUSTS NO HIGHER THAN 30 MPH. LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL TEMPER
WINDS INTO THE EVENING AN OVERALL DRYING TREND...BEFORE SOME PATCHY
MID CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO ROLL THROUGH INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WITH MID AND
UPPER 40S IN EASTERN UPPER...AND LOW TO MID 50S IN NRN LOWER. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT THU APR 10 2014

...OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN ON THE INCREASE...COLDER AIR AND PERHAPS
SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW CONCERNS EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL (FOR NOW ANYWAY). MINOR RIVER
FLOODING POTENTIAL WITH COMBINATION OF LINGERING SNOW MELT RESPONSE
AND PERIODIC RAIN POSSIBILITIES. SOME POTENTIAL FOR A LATE SEASON
WINTER STORM EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK.

OVERVIEW: INITIAL ZONAL FLAVOR TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME GIVES
WAY TO ONE OF GREATER AMPLIFICATION HEADING INTO THE END OF THE
WEEKEND AND ON INTO EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK. ABOVE OPENS UP THE
POTENTIALLY FOR SOME PRETTY ACTIVE WEATHER...FIRST VIA FAST MOVING
WAVES WITHIN THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN...THEN THROUGH DEEP MOIST INFLOW
IN TIGHTENING WESTERN LAKES BAROCLINIC AXIS AS AMPLIFICATION KICKS
INTO OVERDRIVE. TO FURTHER COMPLICATE MATTERS...INNOCUOUS CLOSED
UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING WELL WEST OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST GETS
SHOVED INLAND...EVENTUALLY OPENING UP AND PULLING INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS LATER THIS WEEKEND. POTENTIAL MERGER/INTERACTION WITH
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY JUST MAY PROVIDE THE IMPETUS TO DRIVE A LATE
SEASON WINTER WEATHER EVENT ACROSS OUR AREA TO KICK OFF NEXT WORK
WEEK. WINTER PRECIP THREAT OR NOT...SAID AMPLIFICATION LOOKS LIKE A
PRETTY SURE BET TO BRING A SURGE OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO OUR
AREA AFTER THIS WEEKEND. SO...AS ONE CAN TELL...THERE ARE PLENTY OF
THINGS TO DISCUSS IN THE LONG TERM. LET`S GET STARTED.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: SORTING OUT MULTI-PERIOD RAIN
CHANCES THIS WEEKEND. RETURN OF COLDER AIR NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO
PRECIP TYPE ISSUES AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN ACCUMULATING SNOW
EVENT. TEMPERATURE AND CLOUD TRENDS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

DETAILS: NOT A BAD END TO THE WORK WEEK AS HIGHS WARM BACK INTO THE
40S AND 50S ON FRIDAY. STILL NEED TO WATCH FAST MOVING WAVE/SLUG OF
QG SUPPORT THAT RACES ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE AREA. DYNAMICS
AND MOISTURE NOTHING SPECTACULAR...ALTHOUGH STILL HINTS OF DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE RESPONSE...ESPECIALLY TIED TO EASTERN UPPER LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AXIS. WILL CONTINUE THEME OF SOME LOW END SHOWER MENTION
ACROSS THE NORTH...DRY ELSEWHERE. QUESTIONS BECOME MANY HEADING INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH FAST FLOW REGIME PLAYING HAVOC WITH GUIDANCE.
REALLY HARD TO GET A FEEL FOR HOW TO HANDLE THIS MODEL CHAOS...WITH
BOTH SIGNIFICANT INTRA AND INTER MODEL INCONSISTENCIES. WEAK FRONT
ADVERTISED IN MOST PROGS TO DROP INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES OVERNIGHT
...BEFORE STALLING IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY. FORCING MINIMAL...WITH
NEARLY ALL MID LEVEL SUPPORT REMAINING OFF TO NORTH. WILL
TENTATIVELY KEEP INHERITED SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING.
MUCH MORE IMPRESSIVE SHOT FOR RAIN ARRIVES BY LATER SATURDAY...AND
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AS MORE COHERENT MID LEVEL
WAVE AND ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT APPROACH THE AREA.
PRE-SYSTEM MOISTURE FLOW RAMPS UP NICELY...WITH DEVELOPING WESTERN
GULF CONNECTION HELPING SPIKE PWAT VALUES AOA ONE INCH LEVELS.
SHOWERS A PRETTY GOOD BET BY SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA...AND
DEPENDING OF FRONTAL TIMING...LOOK TO LAST MUCH OF SUNDAY.
DEFINITELY SIDING WITH THE MUCH MORE CONSISTENT SLOWER/FURTHER NORTH
SCENARIO DEPICTED BY NOW MULTIPLE RUNS OF THE ECMWF. THIS PLACES
MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER IN THE WARM SECTOR...AND WITH SAID AMPLE
MOISTURE...SUPPORTS THE ADDITION OF THUNDER CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE STORMS GIVEN WHAT LOOKS LIKE
RATHER LIMITED INSTABILITY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULDN`T GET TOO OUT
OF HAND...A GENERAL HALF TO ONE INCH TOTALS...ALTHOUGH ANY
CONVECTION OF COURSE WILL TIP THE SCALE TO SOME HEAVIER AMOUNTS.
WITH RIVERS ALREADY RUNNING ON THE HIGH SIDE...AND STILL SOME SNOW
MELT TO GO...THIS COULD BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME MINOR RIVER FLOODING.

WARNING! FOR THOSE ABSOLUTELY SICK OF WINTER WEATHER...DO YOURSELF A
FAVOR AND STOP READING. CONFIDENCE IS SLOWLY INCREASING ON AT LEAST
SOME IMPACTS FROM A LATE SEASON WINTER STORM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. TIMING IS KEY...BOTH WITH DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM (SUPPLYING
THE COLD AIR) AND ENERGY PIVOTING OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
(CURRENT CLOSED LOW IN THE PACIFIC TALKED ABOUT EARLIER).
ESSENTIALLY TWO CAMPS HERE...ONE WITH MORE NORTHERN STREAM
DOMINATION AND QUICKER NORTHERN STREAM PROGRESSION. THIS FORCES A
FURTHER EAST AND MUCH MORE DAMPENED SOLUTION TO EJECTION OF SOUTHERN
LOW...AND ONE WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS TO OUR AREA (SEVERAL GFS
ENSEMBLES/PAST GEM AND UKMET SOLUTIONS). THE SECOND CAMP IS MUCH
MORE OMINOUS...AND INVOLVES A SLOWER AND DEEPER DIGGING NORTHERN
STREAM. THIS...IN TURN...ALLOWS SOUTHERN ENERGY TO MAKE A NORTHEAST
PIVOT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FORCED DOWNSTREAM RIDGE
AMPLIFICATION ALLOWS DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LAKES. SUCH A SOLUTION WOULD
BRING A HEAVY PRECIP CONCERN TO AT LEAST PARTS OF OUR AREA...AND
DEPENDING ON EXACT TIMING/EASTERN EXTENT OF COLD AIR FILTERING INTO
THE WESTERN LAKES...COULD BRING AN ACCUMULATING SNOW EVENT TO SOME
BY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY (MOST NOTABLY DISPLAYED BY 00Z
ECMWF AND SOME OF ITS ENSEMBLES...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT BY
DETERMINISTIC 00Z GFS). LATEST WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER THINKING IS
AT LEAST PARTIALLY TOWARD THIS LATTER SCENARIO. DEVELOPING PATTERN
IS ONE THAT WILL LIKELY CAUSE FUTURE ADJUSTMENTS WITH THIS
SYSTEM...PERHAPS SIGNIFICANTLY. RAIN/SNOW WORDING WILL DO FOR
NOW...BUT WILL DEFINITELY KEEP A MENTION OF THIS POTENTIAL IN THE
LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. SYSTEM OR NO SYSTEM...COLD AIR A
PRETTY SAFE BET TO FILTER INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...DROPPING
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. PER SPRINGTIME
USUAL...HOWEVER...THIS LOOKS TEMPORARY...WITH MODERATION EXPECTED AS
WE HEAD THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND END PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM EDT WED APR 9 2014

CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A 2 TO
4 HOUR DURATION BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TOWARD DAYBREAK INTO MID MORNING WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. WINDS...SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS
SHIFTING INTO THE WEST LATER THIS MORNING AND BECOMING GUSTY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN THURSDAY
NIGHT DIMINISHING THE WINDS IN THE EVENING. CONTINUED LLWS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MSB
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...AS






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