Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY

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FXUS65 KRIW 270951

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
251 AM MST Mon Feb 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...Monday through Wednesday night

Interesting forecast shaping up for today. Currently, some snow is
ongoing across the west as a front and trough move across the area.
We expect this to continue through the day. The models continue to
show that the system does not have a tremendous amount of moisture
to work with even through the jet dynamics are decent. Looking at
web cams, some areas already have an inch or two so we hoist a
winter weather advisory over much of the western mountains.

Another area of concern will be across Sweetwater County the front a
decent amount of left front quadrant jet energy this afternoon. The
models are showing a decent amount of QPF in that area this
afternoon. However, this looks to be a fairly quick hitter as most
of the precipitation should move out by dark with a bulk of the best
dynamics over areas east of Sweetwater County. In addition, the best
snow would likely be in southeastern Sweetwater County south of I-80
where the population is very sparse. We will issue a Special Weather
Statement for this area as well. The NAM does have some showers
creeping up toward Casper as well. With some decent instability, we
put at least slight POPS across the entire area this evening in case
some showers break out. An area that has to be watched is the Cody
area where we have been burned a few times. We increased POPS a bit
here as well. The snow should end fairly quickly after midnight as
the waves moves away.

Another wave will move into western Wyoming on Tuesday. At this
point, this wave looks weaker than the one today so only light to
occasionally moderate snow is expected. Most areas East of the
Divide should stay dry as this wave passes though. Winds will get
gusty once again across the southwestern Wind Corridor as well
although not of the high wind variety. Temperatures should drop a
few degrees behind the

The trend in precipitation should continue to decrease with only
some light snow in west. However, the wind machine may begin to
crank up again across the Lee of the Absarokas as mid level winds
increase to over 50 knots. The main area of threat would be, you
guessed it, around Clark. In addition, an Alberta Clipper will drop
southward into the Plains states. Most of the effects should remain
to the east. However, it should get close enough to possibly bring
some light snow to northern and eastern portions of the county
warning area. Temperatures starting Wednesday should then begin a
slow moderating trend.

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday

Northwest flow aloft for Thursday with some light snow in NW WY
once again. Some light snow for the northern Bighorn mountains and
possibly northern Johnson county. Dry elsewhere on Thursday. The
flow aloft turns west on Friday and Saturday with moisture in this
flow. This would keep periods of snow in the forecast for the
Northwest quarter of the state. This would include Jackson, Alpine
and Hoback Junction. South of these locations the snow looks to
be less at this time, but will have to see how this unfolds once
the pattern changes. Dry weather for the rest of the region Friday
and Saturday. Breezy to windy areas Fri and Sat, mainly in the
favored wind corridors of central and northwest WY. Will have to
watch a weather system for next Sunday as it crosses through the
region. Both the GFS and ECMWF have this potent system and it
could bring a decent snow event to the west from Saturday evening
through Sunday evening. East of the divide, the impact would be
Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. Expect brisk wind on Sunday
in many locations. Any lingering snow would end Monday morning,
followed by decreasing clouds. Temperatures will become more mild
Thursday through Saturday. Still not looking at a fast lower
elevation snowmelt during this period as 700MB temps only get to
near zero Celsius Friday and Saturday. Temps will be colder Sunday
and Monday as the weather system passes by.




An upper trough over the Intermountain West will move east across
the Continental Divide around 00z Tuesday.  Widespread MVFR, areas
of IFR conditions in light snow, frequent mountain obscurations,
will precede this system and its associated cold front vicinity and
north of a KEVW-90SM S KPNA line through 15z Monday.  Snow showers
will increase further south along the Interstate 80 corridor after
15z with prevailing MVFR conditions in light snow expected into KRKS
by the afternoon.  Drier air will move in behind the upper trough
passage Monday evening with scattered snow showers mainly confined
to the northwest mountains after 03z Tuesday.


VFR conditions will prevail through 15z Monday.  Scattered MVFR/IFR
snow showers will develop from the south to a vicinity KRIW-KCPR
line 15z-18z Monday with more organized snow bands possible,
especially along KRKS-KCPR routes Monday afternoon.  Snow shower
coverage will be less over north central Wyoming; however, brief
MVFR/IFR conditions will be possible vicinity KWRL and KCOD Monday
afternoon and evening.  Drier air will push in behind a cold front
along with gusty NW winds, especially vicinity KDUB-KRIW 06z-12z



Fire Danger low for all of Wyoming today as a good existing snow
pack combines with seasonal to below seasonal temperatures. Smoke
dispersion will be fair to very good across most of the forecast
area this afternoon. A period of light to moderate snow will
continue across the western mountains. Wind should remain moderate
today although gusty winds will return in the wind prone areas
tomorrow with strong winds possible by Wednesday.



Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for WYZ012-



SHORT TERM...Hattings
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