Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY

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000
FXUS65 KRIW 280217
AFDRIW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
817 PM MDT SAT AUG 27 2016

.UPDATE...

Allowed the Red Flag Warning expire at 8 PM for much of the area.
However decided to issue a Red Flag Warning for Yellowstone and
the Absaroka Fire Weather Zone 286. This red flag warning looks to
be marginal as winds will be weaker as upper ridge begins to
build into the area, but soundings show strong enough winds aloft
over the north that should mix down Sunday afternoon. Also RH
should be slightly lower on Sunday. The rest of the area looks to
have low RH, but winds too weak for red flag. Will take a look at
the 00Z model guidance to see if any adjustments need to be made.

Otherwise...current dry forecast is on track. Tweaked a few
overnight lows downward across the far west.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 315 PM MDT SAT AUG 27 2016/

Short Term...Tonight Through Sunday

Dry west flow aloft will bring breezy to windy conditions
with low relative humidity and warmer temperatures this evening.
High pressure will begin to build north across western and
central Wyoming on Sunday with a decrease in winds...but
relative humidity will remain low with continued warming.
Local breezy to windy conditions will occur in the afternoon
and evening.

Long Term...Sunday Night Through Saturday

Monday and Tuesday will see the high pressure continue to build
over western and central Wyoming with dry breezy and warm
conditions. Some mid and upper level moisture will spread north
from the Great Basin bringing better chances of showers and
thunderstorms...especially over the western mountains Wednesday
through Saturday. Overall temperatures will remain warm but local
cooling can be expected with increased clouds and precipitation
increasing.

Aviation.../00Z Issuance/

Expect VFR conditions through the period with variable high level
cloudiness. Breezy west to southwest winds will be observed in
many locations for the rest of this afternoon and evening. Expect
decreasing west winds Sunday with continued VFR conditions.

Fire Weather...

...Red Flag Warning for Yellowstone and zone 286 covering the
Absaroka Mountains through Sunday Evening...

Dry west flow aloft will bring breezy to windy conditions
with low relative humidity and warmer temperatures this evening.
High pressure will begin to build north across western and
central Wyoming on Sunday with a decrease in winds...but
relative humidity will remain low with continued warming.
Local breezy to windy conditions will occur in the afternoon
and evening.  Monday and Tuesday will see the high pressure
continue to build over western and central Wyoming with dry
breezy and warm conditions.

&&

.RIW Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT Sunday for WYZ140-286.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WM
SHORT TERM...C.Baker
LONG TERM...C.Baker
AVIATION...Lipson
FIRE WEATHER...C.Baker



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