Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY

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000
FXUS65 KRIW 190352
AFDRIW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
952 PM MDT Mon Mar 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mild and dry conditions with mostly sunny skies and highs slightly
to well above normal across much of the Cowboy State today.

- Spring-like weather continues through the first half of the week
before a shift in the weather pattern begins.

- Light snow/rain showers over parts of western and northern WY by
the end of the week.

- A wetter and cooler weather pattern looks to develop this
  weekend continuing through the remainder of March.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 116 PM MDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Astronomical Spring officially starts tomorrow, March 19th, at 9:04
PM MDT. However, the spring-like weather has arrived to the Cowboy
State fashionably early. This is in large part thanks to a
persistent ridge of high pressure, that has set itself up over the
western CONUS. This area of high pressure has created a blocking
pattern which will keep things rather uneventful. Highs across the
state today will range from slightly above to well above normal
values. The Bighorn, and Powder River Basins will see the warmest
temperatures, with highs in the mid to upper 60s, a few places may
even reach 70. While slightly cooler than areas east of the Divide,
western WY will still see mild temperatures, with highs in the upper
40s to low 50s. Winds will become breezy across parts of Johnson and
Natrona Counties this afternoon with a few gusts of 25 to 30 mph
possible at times. The mild and dry conditions continue through the
first half of the week, with the first day of Spring being a near
replica of today.

The second half of the week will see this blocking pattern gradually
fall apart, in turn allowing westerly flow to return. Models are
indicating a shortwave move through the PACNW Wednesday, reaching
western WY by the early morning Thursday. Currently impacts look
minimal, with light snow expected for the mountains of western and
northern WY. Light rain showers may be possible in some western
basins and parts of the Bighorn Basin. Light precipitation looks to
continue over these areas through the remainder of the week. The
weekend is beginning to look rather interesting, as models continue
to indicate the possibility of a large Pacific system bringing
impacts to parts of the central/norther Rockies. This system has the
potential to bring widespread precipitation to the Cowboy State.
There is the potential for snow with this system but with this
system being nearly a week away uncertainty remains high. A deep
trough looks to be associated with this system and likely brings
below normal temperatures back to the region for the start of next
week.

Change is around the corner, after what looks to be a mostly
pleasant, mild, and dry week of weather. The newest CPC outlooks
continue to indicate a shift in the weather pattern. Outlooks are
pointing to a more active, wetter, and cooler weather pattern
developing for the end of March. The most recent CPC 8-14 day
outlook shows a 60-70% chance for below normal temperatures and a 40-
50% chance for above normal precipitation. Even though tomorrow may
be the official first day of Spring for the northern Hemisphere, the
spring-like weather likely will not last. Those who live in Wyoming
know that the actual start of Spring is usually a bit behind and
does not begin until mid to late April. This may be the case this
year as well, with early signs of a wet and cool end to March and
start to April.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 951 PM MDT Mon Mar 18 2024

VFR conditions prevail as high pressure remains. Light winds for
most sites, but have tried to pick out prevailing wind directions
based on diurnal wind trends and current synoptic pattern.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for
the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dziewaltowski
AVIATION...Wittmann


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