Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY

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000
FXUS65 KRIW 302100
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
300 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

CERTAINLY MUCH QUIETER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY WAS AT THIS TIME.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE MUCH LOWER THAN YESTERDAY WITH THE
BEST MOISTURE PUSHED TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THERE IS
STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND AND COMBINED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH FOR SOME SHOWERS TO LINGER...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE WIND
RIVER RANGE AND ALSO ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. AND LIKE
YESTERDAY...WHERE MOST OF THE MOISTURE IS IT IS STILL MOSTLY CLOUDY
SO TEMPERATURES AND INSTABILITY ARE RELATIVELY LIMITED. AS A
RESULT...FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTH. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AREAS WHERE
MORE SUNSHINE WILL BRING MORE INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...THERE IS NOT A
LOT OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT EVEN TO VAST MAJORITY OF STORMS WOULD BE
OF THE RUN OF THE MILL VARIETY.

ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD REALLY WANE AFTER THE EVENING HOURS AS
DRIER AIR CONTINUES PRESS TOWARD THE SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE. WITH
THE RAIN THERE COULD BE SOME FOG IN THE SOUTH SO WE WILL ADD SOME TO
THOSE AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED RAIN TODAY.

AS FOR TOMORROW...MODELS INDICATE THAT THERE WILL NOT BE A LOT OF
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.  HOWEVER...WITH YET ANOTHER IN THE STRING OF
NEVER ENDING SHORTWAVES MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE WE WILL
LIKELY HAVE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH THE HIGH ELEVATION HEAT SOURCE. WITH MORE
SUNSHINE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THE UPWARD TREND MORE SUNSHINE
AND INCREASING THICKNESSES BUT REMAIN NEAR TO SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

OVERALL THU NIGHT THROUGH THE WEAKEN...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO FORECAST AS UPR
LVL RIDGE DOES NOT VARY MUCH IN POSITION THRU SAT...EXCEPT TO SLIGHTLY
MIGRATE EWD A FEW MILES...REMOVING THE FA FROM NW FLOW BY
SAT....THEN BROADENING AND FLATTENING SUN. AT LOWER LVLS...HEAT LOW
OVR THE DESERT SW REMAIN AND WILL KEEP PUMPING MONSOONAL MOISTURE
INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN PERIODICALLY. WHILE IT WILL NOT BE A CONSTANT
STREAM OF MOISTURE OR KEEP PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA THE ENTIRE
PERIOD...THE WRN MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH THE SRN MOST FA WILL BE
AFFECTED MOST THRU THE WEEKEND. ADDITIONALLY...AS THE RIDGE WANDER
WWD...HEIGHTS WILL RECOVER AND TEMPS WILL WILL BEGIN A SLOW RISE
BACK TO SEASONABLY WARM. CONVECTIVE FORCING THRU THE WEEKEND WILL
BEST COME FROM THE MOUNTAINS FIRST AND MINOR UPR LVL DISTURBANCES
SECOND.

MON THRU WED...BEST CHCS IN THE EXTENDED FOR PRECIP WILL OCCUR IN
THE MON/TUE TIMEFRAME...POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO WED OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL OCCUR FOR SEVERAL REASONS...INCLUDING THE MOVEMENT OF
STRONG PVA THAT WILL GENERATE HIGH OVER THE SONORA DESERT THIS
WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO A SMALL DISTURBANCE THAT SHOWS WEAKLY IN THE
WV IMAGERY OVR THE SRN BAJA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN INCREASED POSITIVE VORT AS IT MOVES OVR THE HEAT LOW AND UNDER
THE UPR HIGH...NWD MOVEMENT...AND POSSIBLY THE FORMATION OF A WEAK
UPR LOW BY SUN. THIS WILL THEN BE DRAWN UP INTO THE GREAT BASIN
THRU SUN WITH THE OF THE EASIER TO FCST UPSTREAM TROF KICKING OUT OF
AND AHEAD OF THE LARGE GULF OF AK  LOW. THESE CONDITIONS WILL THEN
BEGIN TO AFFECT THE CWA BY MONDAY WITH A LARGE INCREASE IN DEEP
MOISTURE PHASING WITH A LITTLE BETTER UPR DYNAMICS IN ADDITION TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF MORE LOW LVL BOUNDARIES LIKE A LEE LOW AND POSSIBLE
MID LVL FRONTOGENESIS. ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO FCST WAS TO RAISE
LOW TEMPS MON NIGHT AND TO LOWER HIGH TEMPS FOR TUE WITH SIGNIFICANT
INCREASES IN CLOUDINESS AFFECTING BOTH.
&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

MOST CONVECTION SHOULD END AT THE TAF SITES WEST OF THE DIVIDE BY
AROUND 3Z WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. A FEW SPOTS COULD SEE PATCHY
FOG...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF KJAC...KPNA...KBPI AND KRKS BUT NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREDOMINATE MOST OF TOMORROW WITH ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION
RESTRICTED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND IN VICINITY OF KJAC.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING SHOULD END WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER THE AREA WILL BRING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS
AND ADJACENT VALLEYS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RIDE UP AND
OVER THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OVER THE ROCKIES FRIDAY WHICH
WILL INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY WITH THE MOST
NUMEROUS SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED OVER WESTERN WY AS FAR EAST AS THE
WESTERN EDGES OF THE CENTRAL BASINS. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
RECOVER DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK BUT WILL REMAIN AT OR
BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGH TEMPS.
&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...BRAUN
AVIATION...HATTINGS
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS





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