Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY

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FXUS65 KRIW 300440
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1040 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. SOME MOUNTAIN ENHANCED CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA AS
WELL.

THE WAVE GENERATING SOME PRECIPITATION SHOULD GENERALLY BE THROUGH
THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. A BUILDING RIDGE IS THEN EXPECTED
BEHIND THE DEPARTURE OF THE WAVE. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN
WARMING TEMPERATURES... LIGHT WIND...AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

RIDGING WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND BRING A
MAINLY CLEAR AND SEASONABLY CHILLY NIGHT. THIS AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH WITH A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE APPROACH OF A SYSTEM FROM THE
WEST IT WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS. NOW OF
COURSE...THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION IS WHAT WILL THE WEATHER BE
LIKE FOR ALL OF THE LITTLE GHOSTS...GOBLINS AND GHOULS WHAT WILL BE
GOING OUT ON THE ANNUAL SEARCH FOR CANDY ON FRIDAY EVENING. AND THE
ANSWER IS...IT LOOKS FAIRLY NICE. EXPECT DRY WEATHER FOR ALL
LOCATIONS WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS IN THE WEST AND A BIT OF A BREEZE
IN THE WIND CORRIDOR. BY THE TIME THE BIG KIDS GO OUT TO PARTY IN
THE EVENING IT WILL BE CHILLY...BUT NOTHING UNEXPECTED FOR THE LAST
DAY OF OCTOBER IN WYOMING.

CHANGES WILL BEGIN ON SATURDAY AS THE WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES TOWARDS
THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A VAST
MAJORITY OF PLACES DRY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL
SPREAD INTO AREAS WEST OF THE DIVIDE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...ALL THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SO
ANY RAIN OR SNOW SHOULD BE MINOR. MEANWHILE...EAST OF THE DIVIDE
EXPECT DRY WEATHER AND WARM WEATHER. HOWEVER...THE COMPLICATION WILL
BE A GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WIND WITH SOME GUSTS PAST 40 MPH AT TIMES.
SOME OF THE WARMER BASIN LOCATIONS COULD SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE
INTO THE 70S. BOTH THE EUROPEAN AND GFS ARE ALSO FAIRLY CONSISTENT
IN KEEPING ALMOST ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION WEST OF THE DIVIDE FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL. WE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN EAST
OF THE DIVIDE FOR NOW BUT FUTURE SHIFTS MAY WANT TO CONSIDER TAKING
IT OUT IF THIS TREND CONTINUES. THERE COULD BE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW
FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WEST...BUT AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS TO
REMAIN SUB-ADVISORY. AS FOR SUNDAY...BOTH MODELS TAKE MOST OF THE
ENERGY TO THE NORTH AS THE SYSTEM BUMPS INTO THE RIDGE TO THE EAST.
THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH HIGHER POPS LOOKED REASONABLE AS A RESULT.
THE BIG CHANGE STILL LOOKS TO BE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS 10 TO 20
DEGREES COLDER THAN ON SATURDAY.

BY MONDAY...THIS ENERGY WILL MOVE AWAY TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...THE
TROUGH AXIS WILL STILL BE OVER THE AREA. IN ADDITION...THE MODELS
SHOW ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH THAT COULD
BRING A FEW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO THE SOUTH. THE MODELS ARE
DISAGREEING ON TIMING...SO FAR NOW WE MADE FEW CHANGES. THERE ARE
ALSO DIFFERENCES FROM TUESDAY AND ONWARD...THE GFS HAS A FLATTER
FLOW WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO WYOMING FOR TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE...THE EUROPEAN HAS A STRONGER RIDGE AND KEEPS THE AREA
WARMER AND DRIER. ONLY TIME WILL TELL WHAT WILL HAPPEN AT THAT POINT.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z DISCUSSION/

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS INTO THE REGION LATER
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GENERALLY CLEAR SKY AND
VFR CONDITIONS ON BOTH SIDES OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND THEN
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SOME ISOLATED...GENERALLY
MOUNTAIN RELATED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING
THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS THE SYSTEM COMPLETES ITS TRAVEL THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND IT
BRINGING BENIGN CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE NEXT POTENTIAL
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION MAY BE FOUND BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES WESTERN WYOMING.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRANHAM
LONG TERM...HATTINGS
AVIATION...KPL
FIRE WEATHER...BRANHAM




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