Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY

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000
FXUS65 KRIW 132025
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
225 PM MDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

DRY WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.  SCATTERED MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND FAR NORTH...WHILE
MOST AREAS REMAIN CLEAR.  TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM.
BREEZY WEST TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL BLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

THE QUIET WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST PART
OF THE LONG RANGE FORECAST AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. A BIT OF MOISTURE MAY
TRY TO CREEP NORTHWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHERN BORDER FOR SUNDAY EVENING
BUT AT THIS POINT WITH SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS WE LEFT
THINGS MAINLY DRY. MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK TO BE MAINLY SUNNY AND
DRY DAYS WITH THE RIDGE CONTINUING TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLIMB WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED BY TUESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA.
THIS SYSTEM LOOKS FAIRLY WEAK AND DOES NOT HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH. HOWEVER...IT COULD LOWER HEIGHTS ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME
HIGH ELEVATION HEAT SOURCE THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE. HOWEVER...COVERAGE
OF THESE LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY SPARSE AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE EXPECT
ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH A FEW MORE MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.

THINGS WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO
WEAKEN AND SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE
NEXT DECENT WEATHER MAKER MOVING IN FROM THE WEST STARTING THURSDAY.
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE DIVIDE FOR
THURSDAY THROUGH. IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY EAST OF THE DIVIDE
WITH A BIT MORE WIND AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP A BIT.
FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A MORE UNSETTLED DAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. UNLIKE THE SYSTEM AT THE MIDDLE OF LAST
WEEK...THIS SYSTEM IS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN AND NOT POLAR SO IT LOOKS
MUCH WARMER WITH ANY SNOW RESTRICTED TO AREAS ABOVE PASS LEVEL. THE
MODELS DO DIVERGE ON SATURDAY HOWEVER...WITH THE EUROPEAN MODEL
SLOWER WITH A LOW CUTTING OFF IN THE GREAT BASIN WHILE THE GFS SHOWS
A RIDGE BUILDING TO THE WEST. FOR NOW...WE SPLIT THE MIDDLE SINCE
UNCERTAINTY IS FAIRLY HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z MONDAY. SCATTERED MID LEVEL
ALTOCUMULUS AND UPPER LEVEL DENSE CIRRUS WILL BE ENCOUNTERED
ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND FAR NORTH WYOMING...WHILE MOST AREAS WILL BE
SKC. SURFACE WINDS WEST AT 15 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS WILL
EXIST ACROSS THE SOUTH THROUGH 02Z SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WEST WINDS COMBINING WITH CRITICAL
FUELS WILL PRODUCE RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS UINTA...SWEETWATER
AND SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTIES UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING.

DRY WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.  SCATTERED MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND FAR NORTH...WHILE
MOST AREAS REMAIN CLEAR.  TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM.
BREEZY WEST TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL BLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.
DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH WARMING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING WYZ277-279.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...C.BAKER
LONG TERM...HATTINGS
AVIATION...C.BAKER
FIRE WEATHER...C.BAKER





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