Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY

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000
FXUS65 KRIW 270529
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1129 PM MDT FRI JUN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT
BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM. THE FLOW WILL BE RATHER DRY BUT WILL
COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

LINGERING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET
SATURDAY EVENING. A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME BRIEF GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS. SIMILAR SETUP IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...WITH SOME
LIMITED MOISTURE RIDING OVER THE RIDGE CAUSING A FEW ISOLATED
MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS. ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL EXIST TO
POTENTIALLY MOVE A FEW STORMS INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE WIND
RIVER AND BIGHORN BASINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
ISOLATED COVERAGE AT BEST...AND A FEW AREAS OF GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.
MONDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. 700
MB TEMPS STILL LOOK TO REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS...WHICH
TRANSLATES TO MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE.
AREAS IN THE BIGHORN BASIN COULD EVEN SEE THE FIRST 100S OF THE
YEAR. ISOLATED MOUNTAIN STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE MONDAY. A WEAK
WAVE WILL ATTEMPT TO RIDE OVER THE RIDGE MONDAY EVENING...WHICH
COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS STILL WORKING OUT THE WESTERN PUSH
OF THE RIDGE STARTING TUESDAY...WHICH WOULD ALLOW THE FIRST OF A
SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS TO BACK THEIR WAY INTO THE REGION.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH A SLIGHT COOL DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. MODELS ARE
STARTING TO COME TOGETHER ON A SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONT FOR
FRIDAY...BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND
EVEN COOLER TEMPS. GENERALLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW THEN LOOKS TO
PERSIST DURING THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS ALSO
LOOKING TO BE IN STORE. ONE OTHER CONCERN FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WILL BE THE RETURN OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER DANGER. AS MENTIONED THE
CURRENT RIDGE SHIFTS WEST...AND WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCE PUSHING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...AN INCREASE PRESSURE
GRADIENT COULD PROVIDE SOME GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES. WITH DRY AND HOT
CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND...FUELS COULD DRY QUICKLY...AND THOSE WITH
OUTDOOR PLANS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION...AND CHECK WITH LOCAL
OFFICIALS FOR ANY FIRE OR BURN NOTICES...THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

SKC AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY.

ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING (21Z-03Z) THUNDERSTORMS COULD THEN
DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO ADJACENT
FOOTHILLS BEFORE QUICKLY DISSIPATING. THE BEST SHOT FOR THIS
ISOLATED CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE OVER THE SOUTHERN ABSAROKA AND
SOUTHERN WIND RIVER MTS. THE MAIN HAZARD FROM THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS. THE LIMITED COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS PRECLUDE
ANY TS MENTION AT ANY TERMINAL FOR NOW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT
BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM. THE FLOW WILL BE RATHER DRY BUT WILL
COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE IN THE TEENS...WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO THE NORTH AND EAST.  MIXING HEIGHTS
AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL COMBINE FOR VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT SMOKE
DISPERSAL EARLY THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...C.BAKER
LONG TERM...ANGLIN
AVIATION...WM
FIRE WEATHER...C.BAKER



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