


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
388 FXUS65 KRIW 281016 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 416 AM MDT Sat Jun 28 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - More gusty wind and low humidity will bring another day of elevated to critical fire weather today. - Isolated thunderstorms are possible (from Sweetwater County to Natrona County) this afternoon as well as Sunday afternoon. - Much of next week will feature above normal temperatures and a possible increase of convection, especially Wednesday and beyond. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 248 AM MDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Compared to yesterday, we have some things that are similar and some things that are not. As for similarities, we will continue to have above normal temperatures, with most locations having high temperatures from 5 to as much as 12 degrees above normal. There will also continue to be a gusty breeze in many locations, although a little less than yesterday in northern portions of the area. And, we will continue to have low humidity across a good portion of the forecast area, although a bit higher than yesterday. And that leads to the question of the day. Do we need another Red Flag Warning for Natrona County? Humidity will still be critical, dropping down to close to 10 percent at times. Wind will also be gusty, but is borderline, with most areas having around 1 in 2 chance of gusts past 25 mph. But we do have a difference. That is an approaching shortwave and weak cold front that has a bit more moisture than the wave of yesterday. Most of the moisture is of the mid level variety, with soundings in most locations showing a very substantial inverted V signature. This includes at Casper, with dewpoint depressions approaching 60 degrees. As a result, any storms or even showers that form could cause dry microbursts with wind gusts around 60 mph. And with the possibility of lightning, this was the factor that tipped the balance to issuing the Red Flag Warning for this afternoon and evening. Much of northern Wyoming could have a shower or thunderstorm as well, but the chance of one at any particular location is only 1 out of 5. This also looks like a later show, with a few storms lingering in Johnson County after midnight before everything ends between 1 and 4 am. Fire concerns should be less tomorrow across most of the northern two-thirds of the area, with somewhat cooler temperatures and higher humidity moving in as flow turns north to northwesterly. Elevated to critical fire weather will continue across southern Wyoming though, with gusty wind continuing and humidity again falling below 15 percent. Another shortwave will bring a chance of a few showers and thunderstorms. There is more model disagreement in placement this day though. For the most part, we kept a 1 in 4 chance across portions of Johnson and Natrona Counties while keeping the rest of the area largely dry. Ridging then gradually builds over the area through the middle of the week, bringing a return to above normal temperatures but nothing out of the ordinary for late June / early July. Monday looks like a mainly dry and nice day with lighter wind and any isolated convection (1 out of 6 chance) limited to in and near the mountains. Coverage of storms may increase Tuesday and especially Wednesday as deeper moisture moves in from the south, with precipitable water values rising to as much as 150 percent above normal by Wednesday afternoon and a weak shortwave bringing some additional destabilization of the atmosphere. The end of the week looks to be the same with above normal temperatures and a scattering of showers and thunderstorms, with an average of a 1 in 4 to 1 in 3 chance each afternoon and evening. As per usual this time of year, the best chance will be in and near the mountains. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 400 AM MDT Sat Jun 28 2025 VFR conditions continue through the TAF period. Lee-enhanced clouds, SCT-BKN FL200-250, along the east slopes of the Absaroka Mountains into the Bighorn Basin will decouple and disperse by 18Z. All sites except KWRL will see gusty winds again Saturday, with frequent gusts of 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. During the afternoon, isolated/scattered virga showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop from roughly KRKS to KCPR around 21Z, then progress east through the evening. Have continued with PROB30 in the forecast for those 2 sites for this possibility. This activity has the potential to produce locally gusty winds as they pass, with gusts of 40 to 50 kt possible due to large dewpoint spreads. Showers will be weakening and moving east by 03Z, with lighter winds through the rest of forecast period. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 248 AM MDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Another day of low humidity (as low as 10 percent) and gusty wind (gusts as high as 30 mph) will bring elevated to critical fire weather to approximately the southern two-thirds of the area, with a Red Flag Warning in effect for the lower elevations of Natrona County. Fire weather concerns should ease for central Wyoming on Sunday, but continue across southern Wyoming as humidity remains below 15 percent and a gusty wind continues. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for WYZ280. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hattings AVIATION...LaVoie/Straub FIRE WEATHER...Hattings