Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY

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FXUS65 KRIW 151701

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
1101 AM MDT Tue Aug 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...Tuesday through Thursday night
Issued at 1100 AM MDT Tue Aug 15 2017

At this point there looks to be one more unsettled day before
things begin to dry out. One last shortwave now over Utah will
lift across the area and bring another round of showers and
thunderstorms. And much like yesterday, with a fair amount of
clouds around most of thunderstorms should be of the garden
variety. It will also be a cool day although a bit warmer than the
previous runs of the models thought. Most of these storms should
move out of the area by around midnight with mainly dry conditions
following that time frame.

Starting Wednesday, we will see somewhat of a pattern shift as
ridging begins to build across the area. We went ahead and made
Wednesday completely dry. The models do have some isolated
convection over the mountains but the models, especially the GFS,
are notorious for overdoing high based convection. There could be a
stray shower or thunderstorm but coverage is expected to be so
sparse we left it out. It is the same situation for Thursday.
Temperatures will also be on the rise with high temperatures
returning to near normal levels during the mid week.

.LONG TERM...Friday Through Tuesday
Issued at 1100 AM MDT Tue Aug 15 2017

Friday will be dry and seasonably warm. Saturday will be dry for
most places with very isolated showers or storms. Warmer high
temps for Saturday. Sunday still looks to see an increase in
shower or thunderstorm coverage, especially in the west and
southwest. High temps still warm.

Monday, eclipse day, looks dry for most places. Models still hint
at isolated showers in NW WY with more clouds there. Still think
some clouds will occur east of the divide, but mainly high clouds.
Temps mainly in the 70s in the total eclipse zone, warming into
the 80s afterwards. There will be isolated afternoon and evening
showers and storms developing Monday after the event is over.

Next Tuesday will see some showers and storms develop in the
afternoon and evening. Temps a little cooler due to more clouds in
the area.


.AVIATION...18Z Issuance
Issued at 1100 AM MDT Tue Aug 15 2017

Isolated lower elevation showers and thunderstorms can be expected
this afternoon and early evening, especially near and east of the
continental divide. Showers and storms will be scattered in the
mountains. VFR conds will prevail most of the time with temporary
MVFR conds near any stronger storms. Hyr mtns will be obscd at times.
Conds will improve after 03z but isold showers are possible over the
higher terrain/mtns through the night. On Wednesday, expect VFR
conds with only isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms, mainly
over and near the mountains.


Issued at 1100 AM MDT Tue Aug 15 2017

Fire conditions should remain below critical today. The last in a
series of upper level disturbances will swing through the area today
and bring another round of isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms. With cool temperatures and cloud cover, relative
humidity should remain above critical levels for all areas. Other
than in or around any shower or thunderstorm, wind should remain
light to moderate for all areas. Mixing and smoke dispersal will
range from poor in some of the basins to good across southern





SHORT TERM...Hattings
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