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000
FXUS65 KRIW 122053
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
253 PM MDT SUN MAY 12 2013

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

TEMPERATURES ARE RATHER WARM THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOCALLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS. CONVECTION IS OCCURRING OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS BUT
WITH LESS COVERAGE SO FAR THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. MOISTURE IS
TAD LESS AND NOT AS MUCH INSTABILITY AS SATURDAY. STILL EXPECT
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS MAINLY OVER AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS. FLOW ALOFT IS NORTHWEST THIS PM SO AREAS DOWNWIND OF
THE MOUNTAINS COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS PASS BY THROUGH MID EVENING.
OTHERWISE DRY TONIGHT WITH MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS TEMPS. MONDAY WILL
SEE THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVE THROUGH WY WITH THE FLOW ALOFT
BECOMING WEST SOUTHWEST FOR THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WEATHER
SYSTEM THAT MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NW BY 00Z TUE. THE WARMEST DAY
OF THE YEAR TO DATE WILL ENSUE MONDAY WITH BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. THE MIXING AND WARM 700MB TEMPS WILL PUT
HIGHS INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90 IN THE BASINS AND 70S FOR THE
WESTERN VALLEYS. A FEW RECORD HIGHS WILL BE AT RISK TO BE TIED OR
BROKEN IN A FEW PLACES. THE WARMTH AND WIND WILL INCREASE SNOWMELT
IN THE MOUNTAINS. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY OCCUR IN THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS MID TO LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT NOT MUCH RAIN
EXPECTED FROM THEM.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

HIGHER ELEVATION SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD END DURING THE EVENING AS
A SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVE TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE
PUTTING 700 MILLIBAR WINDS OF AROUND 50 KNOTS IN SOME AREAS WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. WINDS COULD GET QUITE GUSTY LATE AT NIGHT AT
YOUR USUAL SUSPECTS LIKE CLARK AND EAST OF THE ABSAROKAS.

MOST OF TUESDAY LOOKS TO HAVE MAINLY QUIET WEATHER WITH FLAT RIDGING
OVER THE COWBOY STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT
THOUGH STILL ABOVE NORMAL. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA BUT
HAS LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO ANY CONVECTION SHOULD BE
EXTREMELY ISOLATED AND LIMITED TO THE MOUNTAINS. GUSTY BREEZES WILL
REMAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHWESTERN WIND CORRIDOR BUT THESE
SHOULD SUBSIDE AT NIGHT. IT LOOKS LIKE MORE OF THE SAME DURING THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY SHOULD BE ABOVE
YEARLY AVERAGES ONCE AGAIN.

THE AFOREMENTIONED FLAT RIDGING LOOKS TO REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA FOR
THURSDAY AS WELL. SOME MORE MOISTURE MAY MOVE INTO WESTERN WYOMING
HOWEVER...SO AFTERNOON AND EVENING POPS WERE MADE A BIT HIGHER FOR
THAT DAY. IT STILL LOOKS MAINLY DRY FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
HOWEVER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY. WITH
MOISTURE INCREASING A BIT MORE FOR FRIDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES CLOSER
TO WYOMING...AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE PUT OVER MOST OF THE
REGION FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES AGAIN LOOK TO BE
FAIRLY SIMILAR. BY NEXT WEEKEND...THE WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW LOOKS
TO BECOME MORE OF A COOLER WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA
WITH A LONG WAVE THROUGH MOVING OVER THE COWBOY STATE. IT DOES LOOK
LIKE A COOLER PATTERN WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. PICKING OUT
WHICH DAY WOULD BE MORE ACTIVE AT THIS POINT IS LIKE SHOOTING
DARTS...JUST ABOUT IMPOSSIBLE TO PREDICT.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 03Z
MAINLY OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. A FEW OF THE SHOWERS WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. MOST TERMINAL SITES WILL HAVE
VCNTY SHOWERS UNTIL AROUND 03Z. OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS MAY
OCCUR AT TERMINAL SITES DUE TO THE NEARBY SHOWERS. ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FORM OVER AND NEAR THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TONIGHT AND
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN THE MOUNTAIN FIRE
ZONES THROUGH SUNSET. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY LINGER UNTIL 06Z.
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATION FIRE ZONES ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH 1000 PM. EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH NEAR SHOWERS
OR STORMS...ALONG WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES. MONDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY DRY AND VERY WARM WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY. BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY OCCUR IN MOUNTAIN FIRE
ZONES...140...415...286...287 AND THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF ZONE
288 LATE AFTERNOON MONDAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING. A DRY COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WEST AND NORTH ZONES LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FIRE ZONES TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BEING
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION WITH THE BEST COOLING ACROSS THE
NORTH FIRE ZONES. ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS WILL OCCUR IN THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTH FIRE ZONES. DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...HATTINGS
AVIATION...AR
FIRE WEATHER...AR