Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS65 KRIW 302123
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
223 PM MST SAT JAN 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

SNOWFALL WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH PARTIAL CLEARING
TOWARDS MORNING. SOME FLURRIES AND LOW STRATUS WILL REMAIN WITH
LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS.  TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BEHIND
THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING EAST OF THE AREA WITH SOME BELOW
ZERO LOWS IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS BY MORNING. MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE IN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY
WITH INCREASING MOUNTAIN SNOW IN THE WEST. AND CLEARING CONTINUING
EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL STILL SEE LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHWEST
WYOMING BEFORE THE NEXT WEATHER FEATURE TAKES SHAPE. THE CLOSED
CIRCULATION OFF THE SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST WILL SWING THE
NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH TOWARD THE ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE
BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN SPLITTING THE ENERGY WITH THIS APPROACHING
TROUGH AND TAKING THE BULK OF THE ENERGY ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AREA
MONDAY. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA WILL BE INFLUENCED BY THIS
WEATHER FEATURE MONDAY. THE BEST Q VECTOR FORCING AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL NOT MAKE IT MUCH FARTHER NORTH THAN A LINE RUNNING FROM
WEST CENTRAL SWEETWATER COUNTY TO SOUTH PASS AND THE SOUTHERN END OF
THE WIND RIVER MTNS TO FT WASHAKIE TO JUST SOUTH OF RIVERTON TO
KAYCEE. THE LOCAL WRF QPF SEEMS TO HAVE THE RESULTING PRECIP
DISTRIBUTION PEGGED. LND SHOULD WIND UP WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL AND CASPER WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES ALONG WITH 4 TO 5 INCHES ON
CASPER MTN. RIVERTON WILL LIKELY BE ON THE CUSP OF ACCUMULATING SNOW
WITH MOST OF THE SNOW BEARING CLOUDS LOOMING JUST TO THE
SOUTH...AS IS SO OFTEN THE CASE IN THESE TYPE OF SCENARIOS...BUT CANT
RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR AN INCH OR LESS THERE. RKS SHOULD SEE 1
TO 2 INCHES WITH 3 INCHES SLATED ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
SWEETWATER COUNTY. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO FINE TUNE THE DETAILS.
WITH THE SFC LOW TRACKING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL CO AND THEN
CYCLOGENESIS TAKING PLACE OVER FAR SE CO...NE TO EAST WINDS WILL BE
INCREASING ACROSS SWEETWATER COUNTY MONDAY FOR SOME BLOWING SNOW
ALONG I-80...ESPECIALLY EASTERN SWEETWATER. THEN ON MONDAY NIGHT THE
SNOW WILL GRADUALLY END FROM NW TO SE. ON TUESDAY...A MINOR
SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK SE IN THE NW FLOW TOWARD WY WITH SNOWFALL
INCREASING IN FAR WESTERN WY LATER TUESDAY AND CONTINUING TUE NIGHT
AND INTO WED. THU SHOULD FEATURE RELATIVELY BENIGN WX. THEN THU
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...STRATIFORM SNOWFALL WILL GET UNDER WAY IN WESTERN
WY AS ISENTROPIC LIFT GETS UNDERWAY ALONG WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
ALOFT ASCT WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IN THE FLOW WITH THIS SNOW
LASTING THROUGH FRIDAY. KEPT LOW CHC SNOW IN THE NW SATURDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE NEXT SW IN THE NW FLOW ALONG WITH STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN SEASONABLY COLD THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEK...THEN WARMING UP SOMEWHAT FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS

WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW AND LOW CEILINGS WILL OCCUR
THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY RAPIDLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS IN MOST
AREAS LATE THIS EVENING...AS THE WINTER STORM EXITS THE REGION.
EXCEPT FOR WESTERN MOUNTAINS...SWEETWATER COUNTY...INCLUDING KRKS
TERMINAL WILL HOLD ONTO THE SNOW AND LOW CEILINGS THE LONGEST.
TONIGHT...THE FAR WEST WILL HAVE A COMBINATION OF STRATOCUMULUS
DECK...VERY LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES...AND POSSIBLY SOME FOG TO DEAL
WITH. LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MOUNTAINS BUT WILL
DECREASE IN THE VALLEYS.

EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING
WITH SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH. A
MORE STEADY LIGHT SNOW WITH IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES REDUCED
IN SNOW AND FOG IN WAKE OF THE FRONT ACROSS NATRONA AND FREMONT
COUNTIES AND THESE AREAS SHOULD SEE DECREASING MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
THIS EVENING...BUT SOME INSTABILITY SNOW SHOWERS COULD STILL
IMPACT SOME AREAS THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE
MAIN ISSUE WILL BE PATCHY FOG...BUT CONFIDENCE AT ANY SITE IS
LOW...SO LEFT IT OUT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SNOWFALL WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH PARTIAL CLEARING
TOWARDS MORNING. SOME FLURRIES AND LOW STRATUS WILL REMAIN WITH
LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS.  TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BEHIND
THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING EAST OF THE AREA WITH SOME BELOW
ZERO LOWS IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS BY MORNING. MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE IN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY
WITH INCREASING MOUNTAIN SNOW IN THE WEST. AND CLEARING CONTINUING
EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE ELEVATED
ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOW MIXING HEIGHTS AND GENERALLY POOR SMOKE
DISPERSAL.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WYZ012-
013-023-024-027.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WYZ001-
014-025-028>030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...C.BAKER
LONG TERM...LIPSON
AVIATION...C.BAKER
FIRE WEATHER...C.BAKER


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.