Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS65 KRIW 130833
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
233 AM MDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
DECIDED TO REMOVE FOG FROM NORTHERN JOHNSON COUNTY FOR THIS MORNING
GIVEN THE FAIRLY WIDE TEMP/DP SPREADS. KEPT MORNING FOG IN THE CODY
FOOTHILLS. AFTER ANOTHER CHILLY MORNING...WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES
WARM ABOUT 10 DEGREES TODAY OVER FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. A DEEP TROUGH WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS
CANADA THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL GLANCE OUR CWA TODAY. IT WILL COME
THROUGH DRY ALONG WITH SOME INCREASE IN WEST WIND ACROSS SWEETWATER
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT TO THE NNE EAST OF
THE DIVIDE TONIGHT FROM THE ASSOCIATED WEAK SHORT LIVED BACKDOOR
SURFACE BOUNDARY. OTHER THAN THAT...THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FAIRLY
TRANSPARENT. AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST TOWARD THE
ROCKIES...THE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM STEADILY THROUGH TUESDAY BY
WHICH TIME THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN WY BORDER. HIGHS
ON TUESDAY WILL BE AROUND 80 AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS EAST OF THE
DIVIDE AND IN THE 70S WEST.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WARM DESERT SW RIDGE IS FORECAST TO EXPAND AND MOVE INTO THE 4
CORNERS REGION INTO THURSDAY BEFORE BEING SUPPRESSED SWD AHEAD OF A
WEATHER SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AROUND FRIDAY. MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES VARY CONSIDERABLY STRENGTH AND SOMEWHAT ON TIMING BUT THEY
ALL GENERALLY HAVE A SYSTEM MOVING EAST ACROSS US ON FRIDAY AND THEN
PROBABLY A DRY POST TROUGH DAY NEXT SATURDAY. SO A WARM RIDGE WILL
DOMINATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BUT WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. EVEN SOME
MOISTURE FROM FUTURE HURRICANE ODILE MAY COME INTO PLAY AHEAD OF THE
FRIDAY TROUGH. MAINLY HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE WRN MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY
...A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE INTO MAINLY THE WEST THURSDAY WITH THE
DEEPER MOISTURE LURKING OFF THE SOUTHWEST. THIS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF OUR EXPECTED
FRIDAY TROUGH. GFS AND NOW THE ECMWF ARE PRETTY BULLISH WITH THE
MOISTURE AS EARLY AS THE FAR WEST THURSDAY AFTN OR EVENING AND
THEN SPREADING EAST ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. THE GEM IS ALSO PRETTY BULLISH WITH THIS THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY SYSTEM. UNTIL THEN...WARMER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AND POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY EAST OF THE DIVIDE. THEN CONSIDERABLY
COOLER FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY THROUGH SATURDAY. 00Z ECMWF IS STRONGER
YET NOW WITH THIS SYSTEM AND EVEN BRIEFLY CLOSES IT OFF ALONG THE
SRN BORDER FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/
EAST OF THE DIVIDE...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL ROUTES
PATCHY FOG OR LOCAL IFR/LIFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP VCNTY KCOD THROUGH
15Z SATURDAY WHERE SOME SNOW COVER STILL REMAINED FROM THE RECENT
WINTER STORM. OTHERWISE VFR/SKC CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
AREA. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO VCNTY KCOD- KWRL-KBYG
BY 12Z SATURDAY AND CONTINUE SOUTH THROUGH KRIW-KCPR BY 18Z. A
WIND SHIFT FROM THE N-NE WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT.

WEST OF THE DIVIDE...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS ROUTES
VFR AND MAINLY SKC CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE PERIOD.  SFC WEST WIND AT 10-20KTS WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AROUND SUNSET.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A BUILDING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. WARMING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH HUMIDITY WORKING TO DECREASE AS WELL. ALL ELEMENTS
WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE OF CRITICAL THRESHOLDS...LEAVING FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS MINIMAL. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE IN ZONE 279 THIS AFTERNOON.
EAST OF THE DIVIDE AND IN ZONE 279...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTH
NORTHEAST TONIGHT.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...AEM
FIRE WEATHER...LIPSON








USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.