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000
FXUS63 KDDC 071142
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
542 AM CST Sat Dec 7 2013

...Updated for the aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CST SAT DEC 7 2013

Widespread stratus rapidly expanding along the front range into
western Kansas this morning is complicating the temperatures curve
for the day, as well as the previously expected wind chill threat
for the morning hours. Due to multiple problems with this invading
stratus, a last minute decision to keep or remove the wind chill
advisory will need to be be made after more of the trend is observed
this morning. Current blends of the Hourly rapid refresh and MOS
guidance lean toward close enough apparent temperatures that a
cancellation would be risky and we are leaning toward maintaining
the headline. Farther into today and tonight, the models generally
develop the same surface pattern later in the day which points
toward a mid level warm advection and isentropic lifting pattern
across central Kansas. Given the very cold air at the boundary
layer, and only relatively warmer mid level warm nose in the WRF
forecast soundings for this evening, it is likely another weakly
forced ascent snow episode is in store for late this afternoon and
tonight. The GFS model is somewhat an outlier from the WRF family
of models and ECMWF which promote a precipitating solutions. The
events would be more broad in nature with no banding expected. The
WRF`s 15-18:1 ratios are far lower than the event yesterday and
with generally low QPF under a tenth of an inch, the current
values produced are somewhere around an inch of snowfall. larger
uncertainty revolves around amounts, as the models produce varying
amounts of precipitation, and perhaps just a trace to a few tenths
falls, however better confidence in precipitation occurrence exists.
Scattered flurries may linger into Sunday as the models maintain
high low level relative humidity indicative of extensive stratus.


.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CST SAT DEC 7 2013

Per discussion with my short term partner, he will do the forecast
through Sunday, and my long term will start with Monday.

Monday will still be in the grip of the cold high pressure system.
Even though skies should be fairly clear, the low level cold air
will still be covering western Kansas.  The surface high will begin
sliding off the the east Monday night, and a warmer southerly flow
will return to the central plains.  After what seemed like longer
than a week, surface temperatures Tuesday will break the freezing
degree mark, with highs in the lower to middle 30s.  Wednesday
appears nearly the same to Wednesday, followed by a gradual warmup
into Friday.  Friday`s highs are expected to range in the upper 30s
north of I-70 to the mid 40s south along the Oklahoma border.  The
ECMWF brings in a swatch of high clouds for next Saturday, which may
knock high temps down into the 30s.  The upper flow pattern will
mainly be zonal Monday into Tuesday, then shift to northwest with a
warming down slope affect Tuesday into Friday.  Around Friday night,
the ECMWF is developing a small upper scale low pressure area near
the Kansas and New Mexico borders.  This is the feature which
should bring some high and mid clouds into the area and help knock
temperatures down a bit.  In addition, it appears a cold front will
slip south through the plains Friday night, and also add to the fall
in Saturday afternoon (day 8) temperatures. No precipitation is
forecast at this time with the fropa, but that will need to be
watched as the next weekend approaches.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
ISSUED AT 533 AM CST SAT DEC 7 2013

As the day starts, expect MVFR cigs from stratus that spread from
west to east overnight. Southeast winds around 12 to 14 knots will
become established by late morning, bringing increasing low level
moisture into south central Kansas. Some light snow is likely by
mid afternoon, bringing vsbys and cigs down to 4-5sm and ovc020.
The snow will become more widespread tonight after midnight, and
ifr conditions are expected then. Cigs and Vsbys will average
OVC010 and 2-3sm.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  13  10  20   6 /  50  70  10  10
GCK  16   9  17   4 /  10  30  10   0
EHA  14  10  29   7 /  20  20  10  10
LBL  14  10  27   6 /  30  40  10  10
HYS  19   9  19   5 /  30  70  10  20
P28  21  12  21  11 /  40  70  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY until 11 AM CST /10 AM MST/ this morning FOR
KSZ030-031-043>046-061>065-074>079-084>086.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Burke
AVIATION...Burke