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000
FXUS63 KDDC 160512
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1212 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2014

...Updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014

Winds will be the main forecast challenge tonight and how to handle
with the wind advisory headline. Earlier in the day we extended the
advisory to start sooner, especially across the western and northern
counties. All the guidance, including RAP and NAM forecast
soundings, suggest a fairly prolonged period of 25 to 28 knots
sustained this evening through about 09Z. Thereafter, the focus of
the wind will shift into south-central Kansas with the gradient
relaxing roughly west of a Meade to Dodge City to Hays line toward
daybreak. As far as precipitation is concerned, we eliminated POPs
everywhere except south-central Kansas where we kept 20-30 POPs
across mainly Barber County in the low level frontogenetic zone. RAP
and HRRR have shown a persistent convective signal in this area with
several hundred J/kg of MLCAPE. Any convection which does affect
Barber County this evening will quickly move southeast into northern
Oklahoma, so the threat for anything substantial as far as a
prolonged strong or even severe threat is extremely minimal. Low
level cold advection will prevail tonight, but with the winds
keeping the boundary layer mixed, we really won`t see terribly low
temperatures for lows -- mainly in the 29-33F range for much of the
southwest Kansas region. The downslope component in the lower
troposphere will eliminate the cold advection, and with insolation
resuming we should see temperatures Sunday warm up into the upper
40s to near 50 in some locations.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 107 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014

Medium range models indicate an upper level ridge axis transitioning
southeastward across the Western High Plains Monday while an upper
level trough of low pressure tracks east-southeast across the
Pacific Northwest. Along with a fairly weak flow aloft, this will
result in dry conditions across western Kansas through Monday
night. The upper level trough will then push further southeast
into the Northern Plains Tuesday setting up precip chances from the
Dakotas southward into Nebraska and possibly Kansas. Although an
attendant cold front is projected to push through western Kansas
early Tuesday, the bulk of the upper level system will pass just to
our north. Along with drier air in the lower levels, little if any
rain is expected Tuesday...so a slight chance for rain seems
reasonable. Drier conditions are then expected to persist through
mid week as the flow aloft becomes more zonal.

Well above normal temperatures are expected Monday as lee side
troughing develops and strengthens across eastern Colorado. This
will set up a low level flow across western Kansas helping to draw
much warmer air into the area with H85 temperatures in the mid
Teens(C) across central Kansas to near 20C closer to the Colorado
border. Look for widespread highs up into the 70s(F) Monday
afternoon. Much cooler temperatures are likely Tuesday as a cold
front pushes through western Kansas early in the day. Colder air
will surges southward into the area with the H85 0C isotherm
reaching as far south as the I-70 corridor by late Tuesday
afternoon. Highs are only expected up into the 50s(F) across
west central Kansas to possibly the lower to mid 60s(F) in south
central Kansas. More seasonal temperatures are expected through
the end of the week as the flow aloft becomes more zonal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014

Windy conditions continue overnight. Northerly winds will
initially be around 30 knots gusting to 40 then decrease to 20
knots gusting to 30 by late morning. VFR conditions will prevail
with mid clouds AOA080.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  27  73  41  59 /   0   0  10  20
GCK  28  75  40  55 /   0   0  10  20
EHA  32  78  41  54 /   0   0   0  10
LBL  27  78  42  59 /   0   0   0  10
HYS  26  72  40  55 /   0   0   0  10
P28  24  73  42  65 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY until 4 AM CDT /3 AM MDT/ early this morning FOR
KSZ030-031-043>046-061>063-074-075-084-085.

WIND ADVISORY until 1 PM CDT this afternoon FOR KSZ064>066-
076>081-086>090.

&&

$$


SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Hovorka_42