Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 312036
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
336 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

...UPDATED FOR SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, SURFACE LEE
TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM ADVANCING INTO THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES
FROM REALLY BOTTOMING OUT TONIGHT DESPITE THE CLEAR SKIES AND LOW
DEWPOINTS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL RAPIDLY THIS EVENING AND THEN
BECOME NEARLY STEADY OR ONLY SLOWLY FALLING AFTER MIDNIGHT. EVEN
THOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 27 TO 32F
RANGE IN THE AREA COVERED BY A FREEZE WARNING, THE DURATION BELOW
FREEZING MAY BE AS MUCH AS 10 HOURS IN PLACES, PARTICULARLY FROM
HAYS TO STAFFORD TO PRATT. TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE COLORADO
STATE LINE ARE EXPECTED TO STAY JUST ABOVE FREEZING.

STRENGTHENING LEE TROUGHING AND SOUTH WINDS WILL RESULT IN WARMER
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S OVER FAR WESTERN KANSAS
SATURDAY. FARTHER EAST, 50S CAN BE EXPECTED AS COOL AIR
RECIRCULATES AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

A WARM DAY IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYNOPTIC TROUGH. SUNDAY WILL BE A FAIRLY BREEZY DAY WITH
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT FORECAST AND SFC WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH
RANGE FROM THE SOUTH. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
WEST TO THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE EAST.

MONDAY MORNING WILL BE QUITE MILD AS MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE
UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC TROUGH WILL START TO INFLUENCE THE REGION MONDAY
EVENING WITH THE SURFACE REFLECTION IN THE FORM OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THE 12Z ECMWF IS DRIER THAN COMPARED TO ITS 00Z COUNTERPART, AND MOST
OF THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT COULD BE DISPLACED TO THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST.
THE 12Z NAM SHOWS PRECIPITATION FURTHER TO THE WEST, SO THERE IS UNCERTAINTY.
STUCK WITH THE SUPERBLEND SOLUTION TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS UNCERTAINTY AND
ALSO TO BLEND IN WITH THE DAYS 4-7 SOLUTION. THE BEST PLACE FOR THE
MOST PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. TO THE WEST,
LOCATIONS MAY BE SHORT CHANGED ON PRECIP IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES AND THERE
IS TOO MUCH SOUTHWESTERLY MOMENTUM ALONG WITH THE DISPLACEMENT OF THE
WARM SECTOR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.

BEYOND MONDAY, WILL SEE COOLER TEMPERATURES AS HIGH PRESSURE AND A COOLER
AIR MASS TRAVERSES ACROSS KANSAS TUESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER
50S TO NEAR 60. AND FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD, WILL SEE CONTINUED MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AS SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WITH A LACK
OF SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING THE REGION. THE SUPERBLEND
HAS SLIGHT POPS IN A WEEK FROM NOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH A DISTURBANCE
MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS FEATURE LOCATION IS FORECAST
FAIRLY FAR SOUTH, SO THE LOW POPS LOOK GOOD FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST THEN SOUTH AND
INCREASE IN SPEED DURING THE PERIOD AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST AND SURFACE TROUGHING DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  30  56  42  70 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  31  62  42  75 /   0   0   0  10
EHA  39  66  44  76 /   0   0   0  10
LBL  33  63  39  73 /   0   0   0  10
HYS  27  53  42  71 /   0   0   0  10
P28  28  54  41  67 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR KSZ030-031-
043>046-063>066-076>081-087>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...FINCH



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