Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 232352
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
652 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

...Updated Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

An amplified upper level trough will shift slowly east across the
Great Basin tonight and into western portions of the Central Rockies
Sunday providing an extremely difluent southwest flow aloft across
the Western High Plains during the period. Meanwhile, prevailing
southerlies will continue to provide sufficient moisture with
surface dewpoints remaining well up into the mid to upper 60s(F)
across the region. With convection already ongoing across much of
eastern Colorado in the vicinity of a near stationary frontal
boundary, expect a line of isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorms to gradually drift eastward into extreme southwest
Kansas tonight as the front slowly approaches with individual cell
movement to the northeast. This will allow for prolonged periods of
rain as the line moves eastward resulting in rainfall amounts upward
of 1 to 3 inches based on PW values in excess of 1 inch and strong
QPF signals. A general amount of shear and a modest amount of
instability, with SBCAPE values in excess of 1000 to 1500 J/kg,
may be enough to support periods of strong thunderstorms with the
potential for marginally severe not completely ruled out. The line
of showers and thunderstorms is projected to push slowly eastward
across the remainder of southwest Kansas and into central Kansas
during the day Sunday.

Look for lows well down into the 60s(F) tonight. Much cooler air
will filter into west central and southwest Kansas Sunday capping
highs to just the 70s(F) across the area. Highs may still reach into
the 80s(F) in south central Kansas ahead of the frontal boundary.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

Precip chances will linger Monday and possibly into Tuesday as an
upper level trough and an attendant frontal boundary will be
extremely slow to move across western Kansas early in the period.
Although the potential for severe will be low at best, extended
periods of beneficial light to moderate rainfall could result in
generally higher rainfall amounts as the system moves through,
possibly in excess of 2 to 3 inches in some locations by early
Tuesday with locally higher amounts above 3 inches not out of the
question. Otherwise, much drier conditions can be expected
Wednesday through the end of the week as a drier air mass takes
hold across the high plains.

A cooler air mass moving into the high plains in wake of the
frontal passage will remain settled across the region through the
remainder of the week resulting in more seasonal temperatures
through much of the period. With lingering precip and increased
cloud cover about, highs may only reach the 60s(F) across west
central Kansas Monday with the 70s(F) more likely much further
east. More widespread 70s(F) can then be expected by late in the
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 623 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

VFR conditions at all terminals through the morning. A slow moving
cold front will bring isolated to scattered thunderstorms to the
region starting from the Colorado border and moving east
overnight. Expecting KLBL and KGCK to see thunderstorms near and
at the terminal from 3-7Z. With timing and coverage uncertainties,
left VCTS at KDDC after 8Z and KHYS after 11Z. KDDC and KLBL will
likely dip into MVFR conditions after 15Z tomorrow. Wind will
remain strong at 20-25 knots for most of the overnight due to a
low anchored in eastern Colorado. This will also cause wind to
become gusty again tomorrow, up to 30 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  65  78  58  69 /  50  60  70  80
GCK  62  75  54  65 /  80  80  70  60
EHA  60  75  51  64 /  90  60  50  50
LBL  63  77  56  68 /  70  70  60  70
HYS  68  78  58  65 /  50  60  70  80
P28  68  85  64  75 /  10  30  50  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Reynolds



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