National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS63 KDDC 212300
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
600 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FOR 00Z TAFS...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL PASS TO THE EAST OF THE PLAINS TONIGHT,
WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN WINDS BECOMING LIGHT. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING, THE
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CONVECTIVE CLOUD WILL DISSIPATE, LEADING TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT WINDS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 40S.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL PROGRESS INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
BY WEDNESDAY. WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES, PARTICULARLY OVER FAR
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS CLOSE TO THE LEE TROUGH AND WARM FRONT. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S AT HAYS TO BETWEEN 85 AND 90 IN FAR
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. INTENSE HEATING AND MARGINAL MOISTURE IN FAR SOUTHWEST
KANSAS WEDNESDAY EVENING NEAR THE WARM FRONT MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE
A SHOWER OR TWO TOWARDS 7 PM. EVENTUALLY THE LEE TROUGHING WILL RESULT IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE PLAINS, BUT NOT UNTIL LATER IN THE
WEEK SINCE THE LEE TROUGH WILL TEND TO STAY JUST SOUTH OF KANSAS ALONG
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

A PERIOD OF QUIESCENT WEATHER WILL PREVAIL IN WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, AND TEMPERATURES WILL PROVIDE THE BIGGEST FORECAST
CHALLENGE. CONSIDERABLE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD
INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS MORNING AS THE VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IN NEW MEXICO MOVES EAST INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE HIGH
CLOUDINESS WILL THIN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH PROPAGATES EAST
INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. VERY COLD AIR ALOFT WILL PERSIST, AND
AFTERNOON HEATING WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH BASED CUMULUS
CLOUDINESS AGAIN TODAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE SUBTLE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING, AND THE LOW LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. TEMPERATURES AT
H7 ARE CONTINUING TO COOL, AND MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL BE NEARLY
ABSENT THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT, THERE SHOULD BE FEW IF ANY HIGH
BASED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. A SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN EASTERN
UTAH WILL DROP INTO NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO THIS
AFTERNOON, AND THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET STREAK WITH THE MINOR
TROUGH MAY PROVIDE SOME UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO
LATE IN THE DAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS TO HAVE SOME SLIGHT MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY IN FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS, AND A FEW VIRGA SHOWERS MAY
SPREAD FROM COLORADO INTO MORTON COUNTY BEFORE DYING THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN MONDAY AS A
CONSEQUENCE OF THE INVASION OF COOLER AIR LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER WESTERN KANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT, AND
WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
STABILIZES. DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND COLD AIR
ALOFT WILL FAVOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING, AND TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP INTO THE 40S DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.

THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IN SASKATCHEWAN WILL BUILD INTO THE
NORTHWEST TERRITORIES AS THE DEEP TROUGH NEAR 130W CLOSES OFF OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE A
LOBE OF THE POLAR VORTEX NORTHEAST OF HUDSON BAY WILL DIG SOUTH TO
JAMES BAY WEDNESDAY, AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
OPEN UP AND MOVE EAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY, AND ANOTHER DAY OF
MILD, QUIET WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED IN WESTERN KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

COLD AIR ADVECTION INDUCED FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS WILL EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING. VFR CIGS EXPECTED. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PD. E/SE WINDS EXPECTED TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD. MAGNITUDES THRU PD 8-12 KT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  45  84  51  73 /   0   0  10  20
GCK  44  84  51  72 /   0   0  20  20
EHA  49  89  54  78 /   0  10  20  30
LBL  47  90  53  75 /   0  10  20  30
HYS  44  77  50  71 /   0   0  10  20
P28  49  82  54  73 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...SUGDEN