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000
FXUS63 KDDC 170418
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1118 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2014

...Updated synopsis and aviation discussion...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1113 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

At 00z Thursday a +90kt 300mb jet extended from British Columbia
to northeastern Utah. A 500mb thermal trough near the 300mb left
exit region of the upper jet was located across the Central High
Plains. An upper level ridge axis was located along the west coast
of the United States. Another upper level jet extended across the
Kansas/Nebraska border and a 700mb low was located over southern
Minnesota. A 700mb moisture axis extending southwest of this low
across Nebraska into western Kansas. Just south of this moisture
axis a 700mb temperature gradient extended from extreme northeast
New Mexico to northern Oklahoma. A surface and 850mb cold front
extended from western Iowa, across central Kansas into the
panhandle of Texas/eastern Nebraska at 00z Thursday. 850mb
temperatures at 00z Thursday range from +18c at Amarillo to +11c
at Dodge City to +1c at North Platte.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

Tonight:

An upper level shortwave trough will move across the region through
the overnight. At the base of the trough, enhanced 300 Kelvin isentropic
lift and 900-700-hPa frontogenesis will lead to some precipitation beginning
tonight and continuing into tomorrow morning. Mesoscale models such
as the 4 km NAM and WRF-NMM/ARW, as well as the operational NAM have
trended with more of a southern track for this precip. As a result,
have adjusted pops with the highest probabilities across the southern
2 rows of counties. Locations along the Oklahoma border stand to see
most of the precip. The thermodynamic profile supports liquid precipitation.
The top down method suggests the slight (and I mean very low) probability
of mixed precipitation across far western Kansas at the tail end of
the event. Confidence though is extremely low on this evolving like
this and most areas should just see rain. Instability/mucape is not
forecast to be significant or even present, so thunderstorms are not
expected. Precipitation amounts look to be several hundredths along
Highway 50, to a few tenths near the Oklahoma border. South-central
Kansas could see the highest amounts with 3 or so tenths not out of
the question. The northern zones will see nothing. Non-freezing minimums
expected through the overnight into the morning hours.

Tomorrow:

Lingering precip and clouds will lead to lower maximums across south-
central Kansas. Some models don`t break out of the 40sF for P28, but
feel this might be a bit overdone. Elsewhere, 50sF are expected. Other
than some precip across the southeastern zones through 18Z, tomorrow
should be mainly dry with clearing skies, cooler temperatures, and upslope
low level winds by late afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

The next chances for measurable rainfall are with 2 storm systems
coming into the Plains, the first one this Easter Weekend, then a
much stronger storm system by Wednesday of next week.

The Easter system will move northeastward from the Desert Southwest
as a subtropical upper level shortwave trough and into the Central
and Southern Plains on Saturday. Lots of high level cloudiness is
forecast on Saturday, and limited moisture return, will keep layer
instability low, so the probability of severe thunderstorms looks
minimal at this time. Will keep the thunderstorms chances of 30 to
40 percent from Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning. By sunrise
Sunday morning much of the rainfall will be moving east into south
central Kansas.

Then next storm system will move out into the Plains by next
Wednesday as a strong upper level low and attendant shortwave trough
moving eastward out of the Pacific Northwest. The new ECMWF model
shows the system a bit faster than the GFS. Ensemble members of the
GFS are about split between the current slower operational member
and the faster solutions. So lots of uncertainty exists in the timing
of this next storm system into western Kansas. If the slower
solutions are correct, then more moisture will be pulled northward
ahead of the system, and ahead of a dryline, and the storm chances
will increase. If storms develop the chances of severe are looking
increasingly better with good shear in place. If the faster
solutions are correct then the dryline could push out of southwest
and south central Kansas and into central Kansas with minimal
chances for storms across western Kansas.

High temperatures will be mainly in the 70s through the period with
overnight lows in the mid to upper 30s Friday morning warming into
the 40s and 50s into the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 1113 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

BUFR soundings indicating moisture will increase at and above the
850mb level as mid level lift improves ahead of an upper level
trough approaches western Kansas overnight. Cloud bases will
thicken and lower early this morning but VFR conditions are
anticipated tonight and Thursday based on the latest BUFR
soundings and HRRR. With the increase in moisture and lift there
will be a chance for rain...mainly between 09z and 18z at DDC and
GCK. Along with this chance of precipitation the ceilings may
briefly fall into the MVFR criteria early this morning. Northeast
winds will be/decrease to around 10kts overnight and then
gradually veer to the southeast early Thursday as a surface ridge
axis begins to build into central Kansas from the north.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  41  52  36  72 /  20  20   0   0
GCK  39  53  36  75 /  30  20   0   0
EHA  40  54  38  76 /  60  70   0   0
LBL  41  53  37  77 /  50  70   0   0
HYS  37  54  36  72 /   0   0   0   0
P28  44  52  39  71 /  50  70   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Burgert
SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...Burgert