Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 280843
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
343 AM CDT Fri Jul 28 2017

...Updated Short Term and Long Term Sections...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 341 AM CDT Fri Jul 28 2017

Overnight satellite and radar mosaic showed a much quieter
atmosphere across the Central High Plains versus 24 hours ago. Some
weak showers were noted across the northern Texas Panhandle, but
they are not expected to develop or move into southwest Kansas. A
small mesoscale convective system (MCS) across far southwest
Nebraska was weakening quite a bit as of 08z.

For today, the forecast looks quite dry for southwest Kansas.
Surface high pressure nosing into central Kansas will help keep
pressure gradient fairly weak today, with winds 10 mph or less all
day, out of some variation of the easterly direction. Return flow
around the high will be found across eastern Colorado, and this is
where afternoon thunderstorm development is expected. Quite a bit of
Front Range thunderstorm activity is expected well to the west of
our forecast area, and the southeast low level flow will help
maintain one or two MCSs well after dark. The upper flow pattern
will be quite weak, though, so any MCS activity that may reach far
southwest and/or west central KS will be after 06z and more likely
09-12z time frame, should any of the MCSs survive that long.
Indications are that at least one of the clusters should survive to
or even past daybreak Saturday. This is why POPs in the forecast are
highest at the end of the Tonight period and focused west of Highway
83. As far as temperatures go, we will see a warmup back to upper
80s to around 90 just about everywhere with more direct insolation
versus yesterday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 341 AM CDT Fri Jul 28 2017

The weekend continues to look fairly wet for the western half of the
forecast area (far southwest and west central KS). A mesoscale
convective vort (MCV) of some degree of strength will likely be left
over from the Friday Night MCS across far eastern Colorado or
adjacent western Kansas. On Saturday, the NAM12 shows better low
level convergence developing near or just south of the MCV, which
will be a favored area for numerous thunderstorms late Saturday
afternoon and evening. On Saturday, the mid level flow will be just
a bit stronger from the due west, which will aid in guiding what
should be a rather healthy MCS farther east into western Kansas.
POPs will be fairly high Saturday Night given the potential for a
large MCS. The NAM12 suggests that this MCS would remain quite
mature through daybreak Sunday, and would only continue to fester
and redevelop through the day. Sunday temperature forecast is very
low confidence and could be quite a bit cooler than what is
currently in the official forecast. Widespread areas of 1 to 3
inches of rain are appearing like a higher probability. As such,
POPs and QPF grids will continue to tick upward in future updates as
confidence in the event and placement increase.

After Sunday, the synoptic mid level flow will continue to slowly
increase and become northwesterly in nature. Meanwhile, the surface
high pressure center will likely expand across Kansas given all the
convection. A 700mb cyclone center is shown to develop out of the
MCV, which will drift slowly southeast Monday. POPs will be on the
decline Monday, but another cool day with remnant cloud cover and
showers and widely scattered thunderstorms is expected, especially
south of the Arkansas River. Monday`s official MaxT grid is likely
too warm as well, and this can be expected to lower in the next
forecast cycle later on today.

North-northwest flow will eventually set in by Tuesday and beyond,
which will help keep some drier air in place with a very weak
pressure gradient. Temperature should easily remain below normal for
highs Tuesday through Friday if the synoptic pattern forecast by the
ECMWF is realized.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Fri Jul 28 2017

Aviation weather is expected to be fairly tranquil through Friday
with surface high pressure prevailing across much of the Central
Plains. This should keep the pressure gradient weak and resultant
winds below 10 knots. Best thunderstorm chances will be well off
to the west in Colorado. Any late night convective activity that
may reach far western Kansas would be at the very end of this TAF
period and probably not even affecting terminals anyway. There is
a better chance for thunderstorm activity Saturday and Saturday
Night.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  89  68  87  64 /  10  20  30  50
GCK  87  67  85  64 /  10  40  30  60
EHA  87  67  87  65 /  20  50  40  40
LBL  88  69  88  66 /  20  50  30  40
HYS  88  67  85  64 /   0   0  40  50
P28  90  68  89  67 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Umscheid



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