Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 012312
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
612 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

...Updated aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

Short range models indicate a general westerly flow aloft
prevailing across the Western High Plains tonight as upper level
ridging remains predominate across the Desert Southwest. Although
the flow aloft will remain fairly weak across southwest and south
central Kansas, the NAM and GFS do show a modest +60kt jet core
streaming east out of the Colorado Rockies into southern Nebraska
and northern portions of Kansas with a right exit region setting
up across northwest and north central Kansas late tonight. As a
low level jet develops generally across southwest and south
central Kansas overnight, a few isolated thunderstorms will be
possible across central and eastern portions of southwest Kansas
where an H7 baroclinic zone is expected to reside, not to mention
marginal instability present with MUCAPE values in excess of 500
J/KG. Drier conditions will take hold across much of central and
western Kansas Wednesday as upper level ridging builds northward
across the Central Plains.

Little change is expected to low temperatures tonight as a prevailing
low level southerly flow continues to reinforce the warmer air
mass in place across the high plains of western Kansas. Look for
lows down into the 70s(F) across south central Kansas with a few
upper 60s(F) possible in west central Kansas. Highs are expected
well up into the 90s(F) Wednesday afternoon as southerlies persist.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday NIGHT THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

Generally dry conditions are likely to persist across central and
much of southwest Kansas through the end of the week as an upper
level ridge continues to amplify northward across the Central Plains.
The only outside chance for any precip will be limited to the
vicinity of a surface trough anchored near and along the Colorado
border as a series of H5 vort maxima lift northeast out of the
trough axis across the Southern Rockies. This will likely set off
diurnally driven thunderstorms along the front range of the Rockies
with the potential for storms drifting eastward into extreme
southwest or west central Kansas overnight each night through the
early part of the weekend. Above seasonal temperatures are expected
each day through the early part of the weekend as a prevailing
southerly flow reinforces the warm air mass across the high plains
of western Kansas. Widespread 90s(F) are likley for highs each day
Wednesday through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Wednesday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 610 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible early
tonight as an upper level trough crosses western Kansas. At this
time given how isolated these storms will be did not include
thunder in the 00z tafs. 18z NAM BUFR soundings indicated moisture
ahead of this upper level system will be at or above 6000 ft AGL
so VFR conditions can be expected overnight. Gusty south to
southwest winds will decrease into the 10 to 15 knot range after
sunset. The southerly winds will once again increase into the 20
to 25 knot range by late Wednesday morning as stronger boundary
layer winds mix down to the surface.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  69  95  68  95 /  20  10  10  10
GCK  67  96  66  96 /  20  10  10  10
EHA  67  95  66  95 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  67  96  67  96 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  68  97  69  97 /  20  10  10  20
P28  70  96  70  95 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Burgert


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