Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 282003

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
303 PM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016

...Updated Short and Long Term Sections...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016

Benign weather regime will continue across the Central Plains
through tomorrow despite arrival of a weak front Saturday
evening. Specifically, a broad upper ridge over the Great Plains
today will be replaced by a weak shortwave currently moving across
California. This will initially allow the lee trough to deepen
across the High Plains tonight into early on Saturday with a
closed circulation forming over eastern CO into northwest KS.
However, the prevailing southwest flow in the boundary layer will
result in any moisture flux staying well to the east of the
Central High Plains with a very dry atmosphere dominating.
Essentially, the arrival of this wave and associated cold front
will bring nothing more than a wind shift as a dry boundary layer
keeps any risk for precipitation well north and west of Kansas.

Main issue for Saturday is the warm 850-700-hPa plume of 15C+
sitting over the Plains along with strong downslope conditions
bringing potentially record high temps. Locations ahead of the
front should see highs in the mid 80s to near 90 yet again on

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016

The front will then quickly push south through the Central Plains
Saturday night as subsidence behind the wave allow surface high
pressure to prevail. This sets the stage for Sunday to be a
slightly cooler but still dry day as ridging builds back into the
Great Plains behind the exiting shortwave.

Monday into early Tuesday will then see the next shortwave kick
across the Great Plains and associated cold front diving southward
before stalling across the Central Plains. However, the overall
impact will be almost identical to what is going on now through
Sunday. Downslope conditions ahead of the front will bring well
above normal temps again while southwest winds in the boundary
layer keep moisture transport east of the western half of Kansas.
Basically, warm and dry on Monday followed by cooler and dry
conditions on Tuesday.

The remainder of the week will then see a potent northern stream
system ripple across the Dakotas while an anticyclonic wavebreak
leaves a closed circulation over the Desert Southwest. This will
keep the Central High Plains between systems with little to no
chance for precipitation.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1202 PM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016

Relatively tranquil aviation conditions expected remainder of
today into tonight as a weak front slowly approaches the region by
Saturday morning. Ahead of this front a deepening surface trough
will keep south to southwest winds on the gusty side along with
some potential for low level wind shear this evening to early
overnight. Otherwise, thin high level cirrus will continue to stream
through the region while the visibility remains unlimited.


DDC  60  86  47  72 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  53  84  45  71 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  58  86  46  74 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  57  88  47  75 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  57  81  46  68 /   0   0   0   0
P28  62  86  52  73 /   0   0   0   0




LONG TERM...AJohnson
AVIATION...AJohnson is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.