Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KDDC 232311
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
611 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016

...Updated aviation section...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 211 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2016

A weak cold front was situated across northwestern Kansas early
this afternoon. A shortwave trough over the northern Rockies
will progress eastward through Sunday, helping to push this cold
front into southern Kansas. This front will move back north as a
warm front by late Tuesday. The next shortwave trough will pass
across the northern plains by Wednesday, resulting in another cold
frontal passage into western Kansas. Northwesterly mid to high
level flow will persist into late next week, with a quasi-
stationary frontal boundary across the southern and central
plains.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2016

There is a small chance of thunderstorms late this afternoon along
the aforementioned frontal boundary. These storms will probably
not be severe due to weak vertical wind shear and marginal surface
based CAPE. The storms are expected to develop over far western
Kansas and then slowly progress eastward and weaken tonight. The
front will stall out across southern Kansas by Sunday. Any storms
Sunday should be located from Dodge City southward to the
Oklahoma state line in the afternoon and evening. Other storms
could move into western Kansas late Sunday night from the west.
Highs Sunday may reach above 100 degrees to the south of the
front along the Oklahoma state line, with mid to upper 90s father
north.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2016

There are small chances for thunderstorms through next week
as shortwave troughs traversing the northern plains keep
a quasi-stationary front over the southern and central plains.
This time of year it`s hard to rule out thunderstorms when
western Kansas is situated along the southern edge of the
westerlies where fronts tend to stall out. High temperatures will
be cooler in the lower to middle 90s for the most part. A few of
the storms could be marginally severe with large hail and damaging
winds.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 609 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2016

VFR conditions will prevail with increasing mid level cloudiness.
There will be a slight chance of storms around the GCK and HYS
terminals overnight but decided to leave this out of the TAFs
since confidence is low. Winds will generally be from a southerly
direction decreasing to below 10 knots after sunset.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  73  98  70  94 /  10  30  30  20
GCK  70  96  69  93 /  20  30  30  20
EHA  71  98  69  94 /  30  30  30  20
LBL  72 100  70  95 /  20  20  40  20
HYS  72  95  69  92 /  20  30  20  20
P28  76 103  74  97 /   0  20  30  20

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ030-031-045-046-
065-066-079>081-089-090.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Finch
SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Hovorka_42


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.