Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 222020
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
220 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

...UPDATED FOR SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS PROGRESSING ACROSS TEXAS TODAY; BUT ALL
THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WAS CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. AN UPSTREAM KICKER SYSTEM WAS DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON. A SURFACE LEE TROUGH WAS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF THIS UPPER SYSTEM. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO
THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN KANSAS, WITH A 70F READING AT
LIBERAL. FARTHER EAST, LOW LEVEL CLOUDS LINGERED, WITH MEDICINE
LODGE ONLY AT 51 DEGREES AS OF 2 PM.

WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONFINED TO
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL ADVECT NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD THIS EVENING, RESULTING IN LOW STRATUS MOVING BACK
INTO HAYS AND DODGE CITY. FOG MAY DEVELOP AT DODGE CITY EARLY
TONIGHT BEFORE THE LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOG MAY DEVELOP IN AREAS EAST OF DODGE CITY
LATER TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL PASS ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS SUNDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH, SOME LIGHT RAIN
OR DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY, MAINLY IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL HE HELD UP INTO THE LOWER 50S BY CLOUD COVER
AND HIGH DEWPOINTS IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS, WHILE UPPER 30S CAN BE
EXPECTED IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS WHERE SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
OCCUR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS TO THE LOWER
50S IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

FAIRLY EARLY ON SUNDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL START MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH
LIFT FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW OR LIGHT RAIN NEAR THE FROPA ZONE. LIGHT
SNOW IS MORE LIKELY EARLY IN THE NORTH, WITH SPRINKLES MORE LIKELY
IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD
LATE MORNING. EITHER WAY, ONLY A TRACE TO 0.01 INCH OF PRECIP IS
EXPECTED. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE SIGNIFICANT BEHIND
THE FRONT, AND NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BLOW AT 25 MPH,
GUSTING TO 35 MPH. SO, THERE WILL BE A WIND CHILL ELEMENT IN THE
AIR.

BEYOND SUNDAY, THE UPPER PATTERN WILL TURN TO MORE OF A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH A ZONAL FLOW
SETTING UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND. NO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
IS ANTICIPATED BEYOND SUNDAY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S AND LOWS WILL
BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S. THERE WILL BE A FEW CLOUDS, BUT THE
CEILINGS SHOULD BE NOT TOO GREAT TO HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN.

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PLOWING SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS PLAINS. THIS MEANS THE COLD
FRONT WILL LIKELY BACK DOOR INTO OUR NECK OF THE WOODS, WITH HIGHS
ON THURSDAY/THANKSGIVING DAY ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 30S IN THE HAYS
AND LACROSSE AREAS, THE MID 40S FROM MEDICINE LODGE TO DODGE CITY
TO SCOTT CITY, AND AS HIGH AS THE MID 50S IN THE SOUTHWEST CORNER
OF KANSAS NEAR ELKHART. WINDS ON THANKSGIVING SHOULD START AROUND
10 MPH IN THE EARLY MORNING, THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AT 10 TO
15 MPH AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHWARD OFF TO OUR EAST.  WE
WILL BEGIN TO WARM UP AGAIN AS SOON AS FRIDAY WHEN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE RETURNS. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 40S IN THE HAYS TO ST. JOHN CORRIDOR, TO THE MID 50S IN
OUR WEST NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER. THE COLDEST MORNING WILL BE
FRIDAY MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID
20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

IFR/LIFR CIGS WILL RETURN AT KHYS AND POSSIBLY KDDC BETWEEN 02-04Z
AS DAYTIME HEATING ENDS AND THE LOWER LEVELS COOL, WITH A
CONTINUATION OF MOIST ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WINDS
WILL PERSIST FROM THE SOUTH AT 10-15 KTS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND
THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTH BY 12-15Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  39  51  26  48 /  10  10   0   0
GCK  35  50  24  47 /  10  10   0   0
EHA  36  49  24  49 /   0  10   0   0
LBL  35  51  24  50 /   0  10   0   0
HYS  38  50  29  46 /  10  20   0   0
P28  51  56  32  52 /  20  30   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...FINCH


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