Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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000
FXUS63 KDDC 292300
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
600 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 540 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

THERE IS GROWING CONCERN AND INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE NECESSITY
FOR A FREEZE WATCH FOR FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE PULLED THE TRIGGER AND ISSUED
A LONG-LEAD FREEZE WATCH FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. FAIRLY STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE, LIGHT WINDS, AND A DRY ATMOSPHERE ALL HINT AT FREEZING
TEMPERATURES. SOME VALUES MAY EVEN REACH HARD FREEZE WARNING CRITERIA
(AT OR BELOW 28F).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

18Z WATER VAPOR/RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS WITH NOTABLE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ATOP THE
RIDGE AXIS AND ENTERING THE WESTERN DAKOTAS/PANHANDLE OF
NEBRASKA. AT THE SURFACE...AREA OF STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
HAVE DEVELOPED TO THE EAST OF SFC TROUGH WITH STRONGEST WINDS
GENERALLY ALONG A LIBERAL TO RUSSELL LINE.

AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SWEEP BY THE AREA
TONIGHT...FORCING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
SOME DECENT FORCING FOR ASCENT...VERY LARGE LOW AND MID LEVEL
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WILL LIKELY PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE TROUGH. OTHERWISE...THINK WINDS WILL KEEP THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED ENOUGH TO PREVENT TEMPS FROM FALLING AS LOW
AS LAST NIGHT...ALTHOUGH WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND 20S
OBSERVED TO THE NORTH IF WINDS DO DECOUPLE MAY SEE A PERIOD OF
STRONG COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT. WEATHER WILL REMAIN QUIET ON
THURSDAY WITH COOL SFC HIGH SETTLING OVER THE AREA. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED...WITH CONSENSUS OF MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTING DEEP MIXING/STRONG WARMING UNLIKELY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

H5 RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY AND SHIFT TO THE EAST DURING THE WEEKEND
RESULTING GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. MAIN
CONCERN OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE HOW FAST SFC HIGH RETREATS AND
TROUGHING BECOMES DOMINANT. BY SATURDAY EXPECT FAIRLY WINDY
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...AND WITH WARMING
TEMPS AND STRONG WINDS IF MOISTURE RETURN IS SLOWER THAN EXPECTED
FIRE WX MAY BECOME A CONCERN. CURRENT DATA DOES NOT SUPPORT ANY
FIRE WX PRODUCTS AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY
AS WEEKEND NEARS.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MAIN WEATHER CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND
THE MONDAY TIME PERIOD WHEN STRONG TROUGH MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES
AND ONTO THE PLAINS. WHILE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ALL VARY TO SOME
DEGREE ON HOW THINGS DEVELOP...ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS A GOOD
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CWA...MAINLY ON
MONDAY WHERE 50-60 POPS APPEAR WARRANTED. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY PHASE CHANGES AS THE TROUGH
PASSES. BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK KEEPING TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE (FROPA) IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
SSW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE NNW THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WINDS WILL INCREASE 15-25 KT BY 16Z IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  42  66  33  52 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  40  65  32  52 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  41  64  34  55 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  41  67  34  54 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  42  65  31  49 /   0   0   0   0
P28  44  71  35  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SUGDEN
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...SUGDEN



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