Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 290957 CCA
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
457 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

...Updated Short term and Long term Discussions...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

Early morning steady light to moderate rain that was ongoing as
of 08z was located along and south of a 700mb baroclinic zone
based on the SPC mesoanalysis page. RAP, NAM, and GFS were all in
good agreement in shifting this area of enhanced lift west and
north today as the upper low, located near the four corners region
at 00z Saturday, moves east across New Mexico. This steady
precipitation may briefly weaken during the afternoon but
occasional light precipitation will still be possible across all
of western Kansas.

RAP and NAM remain in good agreement with the rain changing over
to snow early Saturday morning west of a Scott City to Hugoton
line. This rain to snow line will then move east during the
afternoon and approach Wakeeney, Ness City, Dodge City and Liberal
by late day. Snow accumulations today remains somewhat unclear
given the warm surface temperatures and timing of the change over
from rain to snow. If all the snow that develops today does
accumulate on the ground then locations west of a Garden City to
Hugoton line could easily have 3 to 4 inches by evening. This plus
the additional snowfall expected tonight into early Sunday given
the location of the TROWAL/mid level deformation zone ahead of
the approaching upper low then snow totals in excess of 9 inches
will be possible before this event ends. At this time the areas
favorable for these higher snow totals will be along and west of a
Hugoton to Wakeeney line. A winter storm warning will be in
effect for these locations through Sunday.

Further east the main question on snow totals will be when the
rain changes over to snow, and then when will the accumulating
snow begin. Confidence still not very high but given the models
run to run consistency and the agreement between the RAP, NAM and
GFS this morning it appears that accumulating snow in excess of 2
inches will be possible west of a Hays to Meade line. Based on
these snowfall totals will go ahead in issue a winter weather
advisory for these locations.

In addition to this snowfall over the next 36 hours a strong
north wind can be expected across western Kansas. Wind speeds in
the 25 to 35 mph range with gusts to 50 to 55 will be possible at
times and this may create some blowing or drifting snow. Given
that this will be a heavy wet snow the blowing and drifting is
expected to be limited but these winds along with the heavy wet
nature of the snow may cause tree limbs to break and power
outages.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

By early Monday morning this winter storm system will be far
enough east/northeast to allow for some clearing skies to occur as
a surface ridge axis begins to build into western Kansas. Given
the expect sun on May first a decent amount of snow melt should
occur but given the expected snowfall from the weekend storm the
highs on Monday appear too high. Lows may also be a little too
warm early next week. This would lead to several mornings of
freezing or near freezing temperatures.

On Tuesday a cold front will move across western Kansas as an
upper level trough approaches from the northwest. As this next
upper level system crosses the Central High Plains Tuesday night
into Wednesday there will be a chance for rain across most of
western and central Kansas.

Once this next system moves east mid week an upper level ridge
will start to build east into the central and northern plains.
This will result in a warming trend along with a period of dry
conditions late week into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

MVFR and IFR ceilings can be expected over the next 24 hours as
occasional light to moderate rain continues across western Kansas.
There may be a break in this precipitation Saturday morning which
could allow for brief improvement in ceilings but still am
favoring MVFR conditions. Gusty north winds at 20 to 25 knots are
expected overnight and Saturday so although some patchy MVFR
visibilities in fog will be possible...dense fog is not
anticipated.

The rain in the GCK area is expected to mix with before changing
over to all snow between 09z and 12z Saturday. At this time it
appears that snow accumulation around the GCK airport between 12z
Saturday and 06z Sunday will be between 1 and 2 inches. Further
east mainly rain with rainfall totals over the same time frame
ranging from 0.75 to 1.5 inches.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  38  33  39  34 / 100  80  70  30
GCK  35  32  37  31 / 100  80  80  30
EHA  34  30  40  31 / 100  80  60  10
LBL  38  31  40  31 / 100  80  60  10
HYS  39  35  36  34 / 100  90  90  40
P28  48  38  46  36 /  80  80  50  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT
Sunday for KSZ031-045-064-077-078-086-087.

Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ Sunday for KSZ030-
043-044-061>063-074>076-084-085.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert


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