Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 270524
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1224 AM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

...Updated Synopsis and Aviation discussions...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Sat Aug 27 2016

At 00z Saturday one weak 500mb trough was located over the Central
High Plains with another upper level trough extending from eastern
Utah to central California. Ahead of the Central High Plains upper
level system an area of moisture was located along a mid level
baroclinic zone which extended from eastern Nebraska to southeast
Colorado. At the surface a west to east surface boundary stretched
from east central Colorado to west central Missouri.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Aug 26 2016

Forecast concern for the short term is another possible thunderstorm
complex coming out of Colorado late tonight. Radar mosaic shows some
storms already present across northwest Kansas and into northeast Colorado.
The 12Z 4 km NAM has initialized this well, and this was used as a baseline.
Have the highest pops across the western and northwestern zones. SPC
mesoanalysis only shows about 30 kt of bulk shear and effective shear
is not forecast to change that much through tonight. The net result
is only a marginal threat of severe weather. Heavy rain will pose a
threat and isolated amounts of 2-3" cannot be ruled out. Coverage will
be widely scattered, however. Basin average in the grids is less than
inch. This activity will exit the region through early morning. Highs
tomorrow will be a little warmer than today as the warm sector spreads
northward. Mid 80s are in the forecast. There will be another chance
of evening thunderstorms tomorrow. Chance pops look good for now.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Aug 26 2016

There will be a chance of thunderstorms each day through much of the
extended period. Slightly drier weather may prevail by mid to late next
week as the ridge retrogrades. Temperatures will be fairly seasonal
through the long term domain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Sat Aug 27 2016

A surface boundary extending from east central Colorado into
western Kansas is forecast to move very little overnight as an
upper level trough crosses the Central Plains. Ongoing convection
ahead of the eastward moving upper level disturbance will cross
mainly north central Kansas with the better opportunity for
convection occurring around Hays through 08z Saturday. Further
south precipitation chances will be much lower. Model soundings
this morning supporting VFR conditions overnight with the
exception of some areas of 2 to 4sm in fog around daybreak given
the light easterly up slope flow expected through early Saturday
morning. Hays will also experience lower visibilities and ceilings
along with gusty winds as the line of thunderstorms cross this
area early in the taf period. The easterly winds overnight will
become more south southeast early Saturday. Wind speeds will
increase into the 10 to 15 knot range during the afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  63  86  66  89 /  30  20  30  30
GCK  60  87  64  89 /  30  30  30  30
EHA  61  86  62  88 /  40  30  30  40
LBL  63  87  64  89 /  40  30  30  30
HYS  62  84  65  88 /  60  20  30  30
P28  67  88  68  90 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Burgert
SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Burgert



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