493
FXUS63 KDDC 120700
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
200 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain and embedded thunderstorms are expected through much of
  Saturday.

- Rainfall and much cooler air are expected behind the cold
  front Saturday, with afternoon temperatures well below July
  normals.

- A rapid warming trend Sunday through Tuesday will increase
  afternoon temperatures back to seasonably hot normal levels by
  Tuesday.

- After dry weather Sunday through Tuesday, thunderstorm chances
  return the middle of next week with the next cold front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Midnight radar and satellite imagery was very busy, depicting
three separate MCSs, one over SW Nebraska, one along the
Colorado/Kansas border, and another over the Texas Panhandle.
CAMs and 00z NAM are in good agreement that a complex of rain
showers and thunderstorms will move into at least western zones
through sunrise. Severe weather appears unlikely, given
nocturnal timing and weak shear, but combining cold pools will
produce outflow wind gusts of 40-50 mph. The wet summer
continues, with areas of heavy/excessive rainfall expected.
Increased pops dramatically tonight through much of Saturday.
Showers may persist for much of daylight Saturday, best shown
by NAM solutions, and again increased pops accordingly.
Thick midlevel clouds, areas of rain, and cool advection on
light northeast winds will all work together to deliver a
welcome break from the summer heat. 00z NAM shows a net decrease
of -10C at 850 mb Saturday versus yesterday, and combined with
limited insolation, lowered temperatures this afternoon into
the lower to mid 70s for most locations. The forecast high at
DDC is now 74, a full 20 degrees below normal for mid July.
The record low max at DDC for July 12 is 68, and wouldn`t be
surprised if some locales are stuck in the 60s all day, if
clouds and rain persist per the 00z NAM solution. Most
instability will be shoved well south of SW KS today, with any
marginally severe wind/hail remaining in Texas/Oklahoma. In
fact, only included isolated thunder in the grids as modeled
instability fields are quite weak.

Of course breaks from the heat do not last long in July, and a
warming trend is expected Sunday through Tuesday. Afternoon
temperatures will return to July normals, in the lower to mid
90s, by Tuesday. SW KS is expected to remain dry Sunday through
Tuesday, and dry NBM pops reflect this.

Global models and their ensembles remain consistent, forecasting
a strong shortwave over the northern Rockies Wednesday morning,
moving to the upper Mississippi Valley Thursday morning. This
synoptic evolution will drive another summer cold front into
SW KS, with model timing consensus of frontal passage around
Thursday morning. Rain/thunderstorm chances will increase, and
afternoon temperatures will cool to the 80s, as this cold front
arrives, and both of these trends are correctly depicted by the
latest iteration of the NBM grids.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1100 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Radar imagery at 04z Sat showed numerous thunderstorms across
eastern Colorado, developing as a cold front slides south
through the region. Shower and thunderstorm coverage is expected
to increase 06-12z Sat, as another complex of rain showers and
embedded thunder move into SW KS. Confidence of showers and
thunderstorms is highest at GCK/LBL/DDC, but kept the HYS TAF
dry for now. Outflow wind gusts to 40 kts are possible. Rain
showers may linger much of Saturday per the 00z NAM solution,
but even so, VFR is expected with midlevel clouds prevailing.
Light northeast winds will persist through this TAF period,
outside the influence of any convective outflows.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Turner
AVIATION...Turner