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000
FXUS63 KDDC 091620
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1020 AM CST Mon Dec 9 2013

...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1017 AM CST MON DEC 9 2013

Water vapor imagery and 12Z upper air analysis indicate an upper
level shortwave swinging southeast across the Four Corners Region.
Near the surface, an area of high pressure has settled across much
of Kansas helping keep a cold air mass locked in across the
Western High Plains. Very dry air remains in place across the
region with surface dewpoints around 0F across central and
southwest Kansas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 137 AM CST MON DEC 9 2013

Today will start out mostly clear as a high pressure eases off to
the east.  A low pressure area in northeastern New Mexico will allow
a stationary front to set up over northern Oklahoma this morning.
The flow aloft will shift from northwest in the early morning to the
southwest in the afternoon.  This front/upper flow pattern will set
up a slight overrunning situation, and there could be some light
snow this morning into the early afternoon across extreme southern
southwestern Kansas.  My gut feeling is we will see no more than a
few flurries.  However, to blend in better with my neighbors to the
south, I chose to go with light snow as the precipitation type, only
15 to 17 percent Pops, and only show 0.2 inch of any possible
accumulation.  High temperatures will likely be early today, as
clouds will spread quickly north in the overrunning conditions.  I
am only expecting maximum temperatures in the teens west, ranging to
the lower 20s in the southeast.

Surface high pressure will nose back in from the north tonight,
allowing for clearing skies from north to south.  It will be cold,
with light and variable winds early, become south at 5 to 10 mph
around midnight, then westerly by 12z Tuesday.  Minimum temperatures
will be similar to this Sunday night, ranging from -1F degrees in
Hamilton County to perhaps 8F degrees in Barber and Pratt counties.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 123 AM CST MON DEC 9 2013

Tuesday:

Southwest Kansas will be situated on the tail end of upper level westerlies
Tuesday. This will favor advection of a low level downslope plume with
850 hPa temperatures as warm as 4C. The ECE shows a high of 46 (!) for
Tuesday for KDDC. This is an outlier compared to the GFS/GEM. The forecast
soundings from the EC don`t show that much mixing even with the aforementioned
ideal southwesterly low level flow. With go with a blend and have maximums
in the upper 30sF. No precipitation is expected. A cold front will move
across the region during the overnight period.

Wednesday and beyond:

Cold air advection is expected in the wake of the aforementioned front
with 850 hPa temperatures crashing again well into negative territory.
Maximums will be in the upper 20sF and saw no reason to deviate from
the inherited grids. No precipitation is expected with this dry front.

Otherwise, the rest of the period will feature dry conditions and moderating
temperatures. Will have to watch for precip potential on Friday as a
wave moves across the region. The allblend precipitation chances were
nil/dry for now and saw no reason to deviate.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CST MON DEC 9 2013

VFR conditions expected. Some mid to high level clouds will continue.
Variable winds becoming northerly and eventually becoming southerly by
this afternoon 5-10 kt.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  20   3  37  14 /  10   0   0   0
GCK  20   2  37  12 /  10   0   0   0
EHA  18   4  39  14 /  20   0   0   0
LBL  19   4  38  15 /  20   0   0   0
HYS  20   5  37  12 /   0   0   0   0
P28  23   8  39  15 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJohnson
SHORT TERM...Burke
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Sugden