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000
FXUS63 KDDC 112258
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
558 PM CDT Tue Mar 11 2014

...Update to aviation for 00Z TAFs...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014

A strong upper level system will pass across western Kansas this
evening. Just ahead of this feature, a mid level baroclinic zone
will develop, and there will be just enough mid level moisture
and lift to help generate some light precipitation, mainly along
interstate 70. Rain can be expected at the onset as a nearly dry
adiabatic layer will extend 2000 ft below the freezing level.
However, continued cold advection and wet bulbing will cool the
boundary layer enough for snow to reach the ground near or after 00z.
Some accumulation of snow is possible, but due to the brevity of the
event, amounts should remain less than an inch at Hays and Wakeeney.
Due to the high winds, measuring this snow will be difficult at
best. A high wind warning is still in effect for much of western
Kansas, with a wind advisory further east.

Temperatures will drop into the mid 20s to near 30 degrees by
Wednesday morning. In the wake of the upper level system, Wednesday
will still be breezy, with mostly sunny skies and highs in the lower
50s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014

A relatively active spring-like pattern is in store with frequent
frontal passages through the extended (days 3-7) period, which will
result in temperature fluctuations and chances for rain or snow by
the weekend. Thursday will bring warm dry and breezy if not
borderline windy conditions as mixing ensues by late morning and
early afternoon. Warmer temperatures will be achieved largely to
downslope winds with warmest temperatures approaching 70 degrees
perhaps focused farther north across west central Kansas counties
where the 850 mb thermal ridge will be. Temperatures elsewhere should
be at least 65 degrees and up by the afternoon. Temperatures
overnight Thursday and Friday morning will be influenced by a
relatively warm boundary layer to begin with, clear skies and at
least some mixing near the surface, which could result in mild lows
barely falling into the upper 30s in the far west.

Once the dry frontal passage occurs, temperatures will likely
moderate slightly upward again on Saturday back into the 60s, with yet
another surface frontal boundary affecting the area Saturday night
or early Sunday. A shortwave digging into the southern High Plains
is indicated will bring an upper deformation zone across the area
with potential for a weakly organized band of rain and rain or snow
depending on the thermal profiles realized. The remainder of the
period heading into Monday appears continued slightly normal or
near normal conditions with highs the 60s and lows in the 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014

Two concerns for the TAFs... 1) winds and 2) MVFR cigs. First, winds
will be northerly 30-35 kt with gusts to 50 kt early and then decrease
10-18 kt overnight. An increase of NW 15-20 kt is expected tomorrow
by late morning. MVFR cigs will be possible tonight with VFR conditions
expected after 04Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  28  53  26  66 /  20   0   0   0
GCK  27  52  24  66 /  20   0   0   0
EHA  28  50  28  65 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  27  52  25  66 /  10   0   0   0
HYS  28  52  24  67 /  60   0   0   0
P28  31  54  28  67 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 11 PM CDT /10 PM MDT/ this evening FOR
KSZ043>045-061>064-074>078-084>088.

WIND ADVISORY until 11 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ030-031-046-
065-066-079>081-089-090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Sugden