Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 261143
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
643 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

...updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 103 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

A mesoscale convective system (MCS) was ongoing as of 0540 UTC, but
it has transitioned more to a post-stratiform event per the latest
radar trends. Radar echoes in the post-stratiform region were fairly
widespread across southwest Kansas, and the entire area was moving
extremely slowly. This should slowly dissolve through 1200 UTC, but
a remnant mesoscale convective vort (MCV) center will likely persist
through the day Sunday. This, combined with the remnant surface
front and abundant moisture already in place (both lower and mid
tropospheric) will likely initiate new thunderstorm activity once
late June insolation deepens and destabilizes the boundary layer. We
will ramp the POPs back up to 40-55 percent generally
along/southeast of Highway 54. The preponderance of the model
solutions are fairly in line with this thinking.

The low level frontogenesis will not be strong like yesterday, so
it is much more unclear how the evolution will be after convective
initiation, and exactly which areas will see the greatest chance
for heavy rainfall. The synoptic pressure gradient will be
extremely weak across the Central Plains, so it will be difficult
to find a coherent focus for convective initiation. The lack of
wind flow in the lower troposphere (and even the mid troposphere)
will significantly limit severe weather and will probably preclude
MCS development. As such, we will not carry very high POPs in the
Tonight period across a good portion of southwest and west central
Kansas. That said, a small MCS may develop well to the northwest
across northeast CO/southwest NE which would drift southeast into
far northwest KS. By the time it even reaches northwest KS,
though, it will be quite late in the evening, and there is little
indication that it will progress much farther south than that
given the poor downstream inflow.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 337 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

This week will feature daily/nightly thunderstorm chances as we
enter a very favorable pattern for MCS activity. Generally in mid
to late June, a west-northwest or northwest flow pattern in the
mid-upper troposphere favors organized thunderstorm activity
across the western plains given the fact that abundant post-
frontal moisture exists this far into the warm season and fronts,
in general, tend to wash out across the Central Plains given a
weaker jet stream. This certainly appears to be the case all this
week and into the following weekend. Daily, subsynoptic
perturbations within the longer wave pattern will most certainly
dictate location, strength, and timing of MCS activity. The first
significant looking convective signal in this Long Term period is
late Monday/Monday Night as a weak jet streak moves from the
Northern Plains into the Midwest region. Thunderstorm activity
will likely develop across western Nebraska Monday and develop
into one or two fairly formidable MCSs as the activity rolls
south/southeast toward western Kansas. There is a fairly strong
signal among all three major global spectral model (GSM) solutions
/ECMWF, GFS, GEM/ that something significant will roll south
through the night Monday Night.

We may see a bit of a break Tuesday as the atmosphere recovers, but
another MCS will probably develop again over western Nebraska late
Tuesday into Tuesday Night. The signal in the GSM is that whatever
forms Tuesday Night will probably roll just east of the southwest
Kansas region into north central/northeast KS by late Tuesday
Night/early Wednesday. If that is the case, it would leave much of
western Kansas untouched on Wednesday for what could be the best
looking setup of the first three days (Mon-Wed) for severe weather
across our region. The GSM consensus is that a surface low would
develop somewhere across southwest KS (or very near) with a
potential outflow boundary enhancing low level baroclinicity.
Northwest flow in the upper troposphere by then would be in the 35
to 50 knot range, which would be enough deep layer shear to
support organized severe thunderstorm activity.

As we head into late week/next weekend, the GSM solutions all show a
rather formidable trough diving down into the Upper Midwest with a
chilly, Canadian surface high spreading south across the Northern
Plains. A sharp front, by summer standards, could be in play across
Kansas which would provide an even better opportunity for severe
local storms and potential heavy rainfall. It is quite possible one
or two days in the Friday-Sunday time frame, toward the end of this
forecast period, could see daytime highs in the 70s.

The total accumulation of rainfall throughout this entire Long Term
period (Monday through Saturday) could be quite excessive for
many across the western half of Kansas, including widespread 2 to
4 inches with some smaller pockets of 5+ inches in the areas that
see multiple MCS passages. This is not good news for agricultural
interests that are still cutting wheat, especially up north.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 639 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

A weak summertime flow regime will prevail in Kansas today. A
weak cold front that extended from northeast Kansas into the Texas
Panhandle early today will become stationary from southeast Kansas
to the northern Texas Panhandle this afternoon. A weak upper level
trough extending from north central into southwest Kansas should
propagate slowly southeast and weaken by afternoon. Widespread
cirriform cloudiness with ceilings near 200 early in the day will
erode during the morning hours. Scattered cumulus cloudiness with
bases near 040 can be expected to develop by late morning and
dissipate before sunset.

Low level winds will be light and somewhat variable this morning
and will become east around 10 kts this afternoon. A few showers
will persist through 13Z near HYS, and scattered thunderstorms are
likely to develop near the weak upper level trough from central
into south central Kansas by early afternoon. The thunderstorms
likely will remain southeast of the TAF sites. Thunderstorms may
develop in northeast Colorado and northwest Kansas late this
afternoon and propagate south across extreme western Kansas this
evening but should remain west of the TAF sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  88  67  90  66 /  40  40  30  40
GCK  86  65  89  66 /  30  30  30  40
EHA  87  64  89  65 /  30  30  30  30
LBL  88  66  90  66 /  40  40  30  40
HYS  85  66  90  66 /  30  20  20  40
P28  92  70  91  69 /  50  50  30  40

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Ruthi



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