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000
FXUS63 KDDC 311129
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
629 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

...Updated aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

This morning:

The old 12Z WRF-ARW model indicated the potential for patchy fog across
south-central Kansas early this morning. The new run still supports
this solution, which, in reality, is bearing out with 5 sm visibility
and BR at KPTT. Have patchy fog in the wx grids from Clark to Pratt
counties/and SE this morning. Forecast soundings show an environment
that is conducive for radiation fog, however, the saturated layer is
very thin (as expected with said environment) and dense fog is not expected.
Attributed 1 sm vis in order to get a limited threat index on the EHWO
just for heightened awareness for travelers. This fog will quickly
dissipate by mid morning. Elsewhere, a slightly drier air mass and
a downslope component to the wind vector will limit patchy fog
potential.

Today:

Other than some scattered mid level clouds, a tranquil weather day is
expected with no precipitation and fairly light and variable winds.
Went with slightly cooler with maximum temperatures today as evapotranspiration/
moisture fluxes should result in slightly cooler highs than what the
NAM is suggesting (the model looks too warm and has had a positive bias
this Summer) in where the heavier precipitation axis occurred yesterday.
The warmest will be along the Interstate 70 corridor where drier conditions
have prevailed. Values range from 79F-84F.

Tonight:

Again, quiet weather conditions expected through the overnight. A downslope
component to the wind vector will prevail through tonight into Friday
morning with SSW/SW winds. This will keep minimums up slightly with
values in the 60F-62F range. No precipitation is expected.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

The medium range models currently show weak northwesterly flow aloft
continuing over the central High Plains between an upper level ridge
over western North America and a closed upper low north of the Great
Lakes region. A shortwave trough will drop out of southern Canada
into the Midwest on Friday. This will push a weak cool front south
into western Kansas on Friday. Given the dry and fairly stable
airmass in place, precipitation chances will be at a minimum.

The northern Great Lakes upper low will eject into the eastern
Canadian provinces by Saturday and increasing westerly flow will
allow the upper ridge to move east into the central part of the
country through the weekend. This will bring slightly warmer
temperatures to western Kansas through the early part of next week.

The next significant chances for precipitation across the central
High Plains will return toward the middle of next week. An upper
disturbance currently moving west over Mexico is progged by the
models to move northward around the west side of the upper ridge
this weekend before moving east toward the northern and central
Plains by next Tuesday. Increasing southerly flow ahead of this
system will pull some low level moisture back into the region with
increasing instability for scattered showers and thunderstorms
through the middle part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

Expect a few to scattered mid level clouds moving over the TAF
sites through the morning and early afternoon hours. A few cumulus
clouds can also be expected through the afternoon hours. Winds
will be variable at less than 10 knots through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  80  61  88  63 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  81  60  87  62 /   0   0  10  10
EHA  80  61  85  62 /   0   0  10  10
LBL  80  62  88  64 /   0   0  10  10
HYS  84  62  90  63 /   0   0  10  10
P28  82  62  89  65 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Gerard