Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 242050
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
350 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016


.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 320 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

A shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest will progress into
the northern plains by Saturday and help push a cold front into
Kansas by Saturday afternoon. With upper level troughing over the
Great Lakes throughout next week, the front will tend to stay
quasi-stationary. Weak upper level ridging is advertised to
develop over the southern and central Rockies next week, with weak
northwesterly mid to high level flow across western Kansas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Thunderstorms were developing along the Urban corridor early this
afternoon. Corfidi vectors are westerly at 15 kts so it`s
possible that this activity could move into far western Kansas
this evening and then into Garden City and possibly even Dodge
City later tonight. One negative factor is the lack of easterly
upslope flow like we had yesterday. Thunderstorms may also develop
later this afternoon near interstate 70 in an area of weak low
level convergence. Given the strong instability, these storms
could be severe with hail as large as half dollars and wind gusts
up to 60 mph. A cold front will be moving into western Kansas late
Saturday afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along
the front and then progress slowly southeastward Saturday night.
The storms late Saturday afternoon could be severe with hail as
large as half dollars and wind gusts to 60 mph.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

If a large cold pool develops Saturday night with the
thunderstorms, this could stabilize western Kansas so that
thunderstorm activity would be discouraged later Sunday. However,
if this doesn`t happen and instability develops given the moist
low level upslope flow, then thunderstorms would be possible later
in the day Sunday and especially Sunday night. Thunderstorms are
possible just about every day next week given the weak west-
northwesterly mid to high level flow and the aforementioned front
lingering over the southern and central plains. At this point it
is very difficult to pinpoint where any storm clusters would be
and the timing is problematic. On the days that feature more
sunshine, highs could reach into the lower 90s, but mid to upper 80s
are more likely in the wake of any nocturnal storm clusters.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 109 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

South winds will prevail through the period at 10-15 kts due to
surface troughing on the high plains. VFR conditions will persist
as there is only a very slight chance of a thunderstorm affecting
KGCK between 00 and 06z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  71  95  68  92 /  20  40  50  30
GCK  70  95  67  91 /  30  40  50  30
EHA  70  95  67  90 /  20  40  40  20
LBL  71  97  68  92 /  20  40  50  30
HYS  71  94  66  91 /  20  50  60  20
P28  72  97  73  95 /   0  20  30  30

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Finch
SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Finch



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