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000
FXUS63 KDDC 271937
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
237 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

...Updated long term discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

An upper level ridge will continue to be present across the Southern
Plains and Rockies throughout the short term period with an upper
level long wave trough positioned across the eastern United States.
Mid levels of the atmosphere will be fairly saturated with partly to
mostly cloudy skies expected through tomorrow. A surface cold front
currently extends from eastern Colorado, down through the Panhandles
of TX and OK, then through northern Oklahoma. This frontal boundary
is expected to slowly sag southward into northern Texas tonight into
tomorrow. Cool and moist southeast flow will be observed behind this
feature bringing below normal temperatures to the CWA. Scattered
thunderstorms are expected to form along and slightly behind the
aforementioned front. Most of the activity looks to remain south of
the area this evening into the overnight hours. However, there is
still a slight chance that a few of these storms could slide
northward and into far southwestern Kansas. Storm chances end by
sunrise tomorrow with partly cloudy skies expected into the early
afternoon. Additional thunderstorms are then possible again across
far western Kansas by late afternoon spreading east as the evening
progresses. Otherwise expect increasing cloud cover. Lows overnight
are expected to dip into the lower to mid 60s with highs tomorrow
ranging from the upper 70s across far southwestern Kansas to mid 80s
across central and south central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

Moisture and warm air advection improves in the 850mb to 700mb
level Monday night across southwest Kansas. This moisture and lift
will then spread across the remainder of western and central
Kansas through mid week as 850mb to 700mb frontogenesis improves
and subtle upper level disturbance embedded in a northwest flow
crosses the Central High Plains. Central and western Kansas will
also be near the right entrance region of an upper level jet from
late Tuesday into early Wednesday. This continues to support the
previous forecast with precipitation developing early Monday night
in southwest Kansas then then expanding north and east through the
Tuesday. Given the persistent moisture and forcing over western
Kansas mid week....clouds, rain, and unseasonably cool
temperatures will continue. Periods of moderate to heavy rainfall
will also be possible at times between Monday night through
Wednesday night, however at this time exact timing and location of
where this steadier and heavier rain showers will occur is still
unclear. At this time will stay close to the previous forecast
with where the mention of heavy rainfall will occur and trended
towards the WPC on rainfall amounts from Tuesday through
Wednesday. Taking these into account the potential for rainfall
totals ranging from 2 to 3 inches exist over portions of southwest
Kansas over a 24 hour period.

By late week a more significant upper level trough will cross the
central plains and shift this moisture and lift south into
Oklahoma bringing an end to the steady rainfall on Thursday. There
will be a slight chance for over thunderstorms weekend.
Temperatures also expected to gradually warm but highs are
expected to stay below the seasonal averages of 90 to 95.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MVFR conditions with low clouds AOA020 will be observed across the
GCK terminal for the next hour with decreasing clouds thereafter.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail this afternoon into tonight
with decreasing high clouds AOA100. Winds will generally be from
the northeast around 10 knots this afternoon decreasing and
shifting to more of a northerly direction around 5 knots this
evening into the overnight.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  64  83  64  82 /  10  10  30  70
GCK  64  83  64  80 /  10  20  30  80
EHA  65  79  65  80 /  40  30  40  80
LBL  66  81  65  80 /  30  30  40  80
HYS  63  85  63  84 /   0  10  20  50
P28  66  86  66  85 /  10  10  20  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Hovorka_42