Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 270539
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1239 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

IN THE NEAR TERM, THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER
TEXAS WHICH WILL SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, AND FLATTEN OUT
SOMEWHAT AS IT MOVES EAST. THIS CHANGE IN THE UPPER PATTERN WILL
ALLOW AN UPPER TROUGH OFF THE NORTHWEST COAST TO EDGE EAST TOWARD
THE ROCKIES TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT OVER WYOMING WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT AND OVERTAKE WESTERN KANSAS. I EXPECT THE FRONT TO BE
THROUGH SCOTT CITY AND HAYS BY 08Z, THE GARDEN CITY AREA BY 11Z,
AND THROUGH THE DODGE CITY AREA BY 13Z ON TUESDAY. LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION IT EXPECTED WITH THIS FROPA, BUT SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL ACCOMPANY IT. THERE COULD BE SOME VIRGA OR EVEN A FEW
SPRINKLES JUST BEHIND THE FRONT PASSAGE, BUT NO MEASURABLE RAIN IS
EXPECTED.  DUE TO THE QUESTIONABLE TIMING OF THE FRONT PASSING
THROUGH, WINDS SHIFTING SHARPLY TO THE NORTH, AND THE VARIABLE
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER, MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT TRICKY
TONIGHT. LOWS SHOULD VARY FROM THE MID 40S IN THE HAMILTON COUNTY
AREA, TO THE LOWER 50S FROM HAYS TO DODGE CITY TO ELKHART, AND TO
NEAR 60F DEGREES IN BARBER COUNTY WHERE THE FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE LAST, AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY.

NORTH WINDS WILL PICK UP INTO THE 20G30MPH RANGE IN THE WAKEENEY,
SCOTT CITY, AND GARDEN CITY AREAS EARLY TUESDAY, AND GENERALLY
RANGE IN THE 15G25MPH RANGE ELSEWHERE. THERE WILL SOME MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ON TUESDAY, BUT FOR THE MOST PART THERE WILL
BE MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 60S IN OUR EXTREME NORTHWEST FROM LAKIN TO WAKEENEY, TO THE
LOWER 70S FROM LA CROSSE TO DODGE CITY TO LIBERAL, AND TO AS HIGH
AS THE MIDDLE 70S IN THE COLDWATER AND MEDICINE LODGE AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDING
INTO WESTERN KANSAS. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH A
FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE REST OF THE
WEEK SUPPRESSING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FROM DEVELOPING OVER THE
CWA. A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE DOWN THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WHICH WILL IN TURN HELP PUSH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVERAGE. OTHERWISE EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TUESDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND NORMAL TUESDAY
INTO THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S
AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
TO THIS IS ON TUESDAY MORNING WHERE TEMPERATURES COULD DIP TO
AROUND FREEZING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING WITH
WINDS INCREASING FROM LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO ABRUPTLY NORTHWEST AND
NORTH AT 25-35KT BY AROUND 12-14Z. ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE
FORECAST. THEN BY 00-02Z INCREASING MID CLOUDS MOVE IN WITH SOME
VIRGA AND WINDS DECREASING RAPIDLY TO NORTHWESTERLY AT 8-12KT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  39  65  38  70 /  10   0   0   0
GCK  35  64  36  70 /  10   0   0   0
EHA  37  63  40  70 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  37  66  38  71 /  10   0   0   0
HYS  36  64  36  69 /  10   0   0   0
P28  42  67  38  70 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...KRUSE



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