Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 190500
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1200 AM CDT MON SEP 19 2016

...Updated Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sun Sep 18 2016

Upper level high pressure was in the process of building over the
central High Plains in the wake of yesterdays shortwave trough
which is currently pushing through the Mississippi Valley. Upper
level heights continue to build through the day Monday. Strong
upper level westerly flow will expand east across the northern
Rockies and High Plains into the Great Lakes by Monday morning. A
shortwave in the westerly flow will push a cold front south into
the central Plains during the day but this will likely stall out
along the Nebraska/Kansas border Monday afternoon. Given the overall
warming of the atmosphere over western Kansas, high temperatures
on Monday should be topping out well into the the mid 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sun Sep 18 2016

Upper level high pressure continues to build over the central and southern
CONUS through Tuesday. One more warm day is in store for Tuesday with
increasing southerly winds as surface pressure falls in the lee of the
Rockies. Also on Tuesday, a strong upper wave digs into the Pacific
Northwest. This will help kick an upper disturbance off the coast
of southern California toward the central Plains late Tuesday night
and Wednesday. The GFS tries to develop some elevated nocturnal
convection from Hays to Dodge City late Tuesday night. While I can`t
totally rule this out, none of the other models are hinting at it.
Currently we are carrying less than 15 percent pops and a dry forecast
which I will leave as is for now. On Wednesday, a surface boundary
slips into the northern and western part of the forecast area which
could initiate a few thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon.

Late in the week, the medium range models show the upper level
trough over the Pacific Northwest intensifying as it digs into the
northern Rockies and Great Basin region. The upper low then slowly
moves east into the northern Plains through next weekend. Chances
for precipitation will increase again by late Friday and
especially into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Mon Sep 19 2016

Areas of reduced vis in BR/patchy fog expected overnight,
restricted to areas near and SE of DDC. Reduced vis to near 3sm
at DDC for a few hours this morning, but widespread fog is not
expected. Strong high pressure will provide excellent flying
weather (VFR/SKC and light winds) through Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  58  90  60  94 /  20   0   0   0
GCK  52  92  57  95 /  20   0   0   0
EHA  55  92  56  93 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  56  93  56  95 /  10   0   0   0
HYS  57  90  61  95 /  20   0   0   0
P28  59  89  66  94 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Turner



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