Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 151100
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
500 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

...Updated Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 1200 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

Unseasonably moist boundary layer still hanging on across the
SE zones as of midnight, with dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s
and dense fog reported at Pratt. Surface high of near 1027 mb
centered over Wyoming as of midnight is headed our way, sending a
strong dry cold front through SW KS through sunrise. North winds
will be strong through the early morning hours, gusting over
30 mph at times. Strong dry advection with the incoming airmass
will sweep any stratus, fog and moisture out of the CWA by 6 am.

Wednesday...Sunny and pleasant with diminishing winds. 00z NAM
tracks the Wyoming surface high to near Hays by 3 pm, and winds
will diminish rapidly to light and variable by late afternoon.
With a much drier atmosphere, expecting few if any clouds,
although expect cirrus to be increasing from the west by 6 pm.
Afternoon temperatures par for the course for mid-November, in the
50s, except lower 60s SE of Dodge City.

Tonight...Dry and seasonably cold with passing cirrus. SEly return
flow establishes quickly as high pressure ridge migrates eastward.
Even with increasing SE/S winds through Thursday morning, with a
drier boundary layer, still expecting seasonably cold morning lows
in the 30-35 range.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 135 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

The extended stretch of dry weather will continue. After teasing
us with a possible pattern change yesterday, models tonight again
show no chances for meaningful precipitation in SW Kansas through
Thanksgiving.

Thursday...Windy and warmer. Lee troughing establishes under fast
zonal flow aloft. Afternoon temperatures warm back well above
normal, into the 60s, with lower 70s along the Colorado border.
South winds will average 20-30 mph with higher gusts.

Friday...Warm! All models now depict an impressive warm plume
spreading across the central and southern plains Friday afternoon,
south of a strong surface cyclone expected to be near Garden City
by 6 pm Friday. South and east of this surface cyclone, downslope
wind components, dry ground, and 850 mb temperatures of 20-22C
will allow for unseasonable, near record warmth. The record high
at Dodge City for November 17th is 80, and this forecast will be
predicting a new record high of 82. Mid to upper 80s are likely in
the typical downslope favored locations, such as Ashland and
Coldwater. With the surface cyclone traversing the CWA, the winds
will be held in check, especially north of US 50. Still windy along
the Oklahoma border, but nothing extreme (gusts 40 mph). Will still
have to monitor wildfire potential across the southern zones Friday
afternoon, given the unseasonably warm temperatures and persistently
dry conditions and dry/dormant vegetation.

A strong cold front will sweep through Friday night. With 00z
ECMWF forecasting 850 mb winds of 40-45 kts, gusts of that
magnitude are possible with the frontal passage. The primary
shortwave with the trough passage will arrive Saturday morning,
with perhaps enough lift/moisture for some light rain/snow showers
across the northern zones. Significant precipitation is not
expected.

Saturday...Sunny but much cooler, with diminishing north winds.
Highs back in the 50s. ECMWF depicts the next surface high near
Liberal around 6 pm, so winds will be light by late day.

Sunday...Sunny and warmer, with south winds returning us to the
upper 50s and lower 60s.

Monday...Warmer still, in the lower to mid 60s, as the next
shortwave trough dives into Nevada. 00z ECMWF still evolves this
system into a closed low, but precipitation chances looks dismal
for SW KS. Another strong dry windy cold front will blow through
Monday night, but it appears the cutoff low will not have any
moisture to work with until it is buried in Texas well south of
us. Much colder weather is likely somewhere in the Monday/Tuesday
timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 500 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

VFR/SKC through this TAF cycle with only a period of cirrus
expected this evening. Cold front has cleared the airports as of
11z, with strong north winds (peak gust 36 kts at GCK). North
winds will remain strong only through about 14z, then rapidly
diminish as incoming surface high settles in. Winds are expected
to go light and variable for several hours at all of the airports
late this afternoon and early evening. Return flow resumes quickly
tonight, with SE winds near 12 kts after 09z Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  59  34  62  46 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  55  35  64  43 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  55  35  73  45 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  57  34  66  44 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  56  33  60  44 /   0   0   0   0
P28  61  34  60  47 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Turner


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