625
FXUS63 KDDC 250509
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1209 AM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms late this
  afternoon and early tonight west of a Hays to Ulysses line.
  Main hazards will be isolated wind gusts of 50-60 mph and
  isolated pea to dime size hail.

- Locally moderate rainfall can be expected from late afternoon
  and evening thunderstorms.

- A warming trend returns to southwest Kansas over the weekend.
  this will result in afternoon highs climbing into the 95 to
  100 degree range with lows in the upper 60s and low 70s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 231 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

A considerable fetch of moisture and moisture transport remains
anchored from the southern High plains into the Northern Plains
regions Today...although the max is not to out northeast. This
is leaving a narrow band of showers persisting from the
Panhandles to near Omaha which is coincident with just ahead of
the synoptic stationary boundary over west central Kansas into
the lower Missouri valley. As the day wears on, any possibility
of increased thunderstorm chances will seem to be mitigated by a
marked drop in CAPE as shown in the HREF means. Less than
impressive low level lapse rates at 6.5 deg/k, and even weaker
mid level lapse rates, coupled with an overall lack of deep
moisture convergence will lead to much less risk this afternoon
for thunderstorms, at least the larger clustered strong to
severe kind we saw Monday. That said, very humid conditions this
afternoon as the PWATs are are a bit more balances spatially at
about 1.4-1.7 inches, which is running at about 150 to 200% of
normal, even for early Summer in western KS. Any showers will
bring rain rates of only up to around one tenth of an inch an
hour, giving a reprieve to the soaked areas from yesterdays
storms. Additionally there shower and storms will be limited to
around 20-30 percent coverage at best, widely scattered through
the afternoon and evening as only about one half of our forecast
area, the northwest is in the marginal category (level 1 of 5)
for severe weather. Similarly the excessive rain outlook is a
category lower than yesterday, and only marginal across the
northern and western counties.

Wednesday available moisture lessens over the region, weak
forcing with weak forcing the entire area is out of the
Excessive rain outlook and only outlooked for general
thunderstorms (small hail, lighting gusty wind under 50 mph).
The next risk will be with respect to the heat as the week wears
on, but only reaching the elevated risk category (level 2 of 4)
across the easternmost zones, aided by warmer overnight lows in
the low 70s east of U.S. hwy 283, along with widespread 90s for
the entire week. Another round of thunderstorms centered
sometime around late Sunday will bring a reprieve to the hotter
air and allow highs to moderate into the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1201 AM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Southerly winds overnight at 10 knots or less will increase to
near 20 knots between 15z and 18z as stronger boundary layer
winds mix down to the surface. BUFR soundings and guidance both
indicating VFR conditions over the next 24 hours but ceilings
in the 8000 to 12000ft AGL will begin to increase from the west
after 00z Thursday as an upper level trough approaches. Along
with the increasing winds towards the end of the TAF period
there will be slight chance for thunderstorms (20-30%) in the
Garden City and Liberal area but given these chances are so low
and given it is over 18 hours away will not include this in the
06z TAFS.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Russell
AVIATION...Burgert