Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 200859
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
359 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

...UPDATED FOR SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

MAINLY ZONAL FLOW WAS NOTED AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF STATES, WITH WESTERN KANSAS LOCATED NEAR THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES. THE REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL
SYSTEM WERE LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS AND A CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW WAS SITUATED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WILL AMPLIFY INTO A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BY TONIGHT.
A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS PASSING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
EARLY THIS MORNING, RESULTING IN A WEAK COLD FRONT PROGRESSING
INTO NEBRASKA. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG THIS FRONT
IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA AS OF 3 AM. AS THIS LEAD SYSTEM
PASSES TODAY, THE ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING SOMEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS
AND THEN GRADUALLY DEVELOP SOUTHWARD/SOUTHEASTWARD WITH THE MID
LEVEL FLOW TOWARD THE OKLAHOMA STATE LINE BY EVENING. SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES WILL BE AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG; BUT LOW TO MID
LEVEL WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK. HENCE, ROTATING UPDRAFTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED. HOWEVER, 50-60 KT WINDS AT 250MB MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
STORM TOP VENTILATION TO PROMOTE HAIL AS LARGE AS QUARTERS. GIVEN
THE WEAK CONVERGENCE AND MARGINAL FORCING FOR ASCENT, STORMS WILL
PROBABLY NOT BE ALL THAT WIDESPREAD. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE MID TO HIGH 80S AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A MORE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT, PUSHING
ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN KANSAS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY
LINGER TONIGHT IN ELEVATED FASHION. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE
JUST SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE FORECAST PROBLEM LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
RECIRCULATING BACK TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THE
FIRST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME OVERNIGHT SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE PRIMARY POLAR FRONT MOVES SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. BOTH WRF CORES (ARW AND NMMB) AND NAM12 HAVE A FAIRLY
DECENT CONVECTIVE QPF SIGNAL IN THE 06-15Z TIME FRAME ALONG THE 850-
700MB FRONT, AND AS A RESULT HAVE BUMPED UP POPS TO 35 TO 45
PERCENT, ESPECIALLY IN THE 06-12Z SUNDAY TIME FRAME. THESE STORMS
WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND DISSOLVE AFTER 15Z AS THEY APPROACH THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER, WITH THE REMAINDER OF SUNDAY SEEING RECOVERING SKY
COVER (ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS) WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE 70S, TOPPING OUT 80-83F OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HANG ON THROUGH A LONGER PERIOD OF
THE DAY NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER AS POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE DEVELOPS,
HELPING MAINTAIN LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS.

A PACIFIC JET STREAK WILL BE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION MONDAY, RESULTING IN FURTHER LEE TROUGH
DEEPENING MONDAY. THIS WILL DRAW UP MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE,
ENHANCING THE LOW STRATUS EVEN MORE CLOSE TO THE COLORADO BORDER.
THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING ABOVE LOWER TO MID
70S. THIS IS ALSO WHERE POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED AS DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY YIELD SOME SHOWERS. BY LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY, DEPENDING
ON DEGREE OF WARMING AND IF STRATUS SCATTERS OUT, SOME MORE VIGOROUS
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR THROUGH
THE LOWER-MID TROPOSPHERE WILL BE VERY GOOD, BUT THE LIMITING OF
INSTABILITY DUE TO PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDINESS WILL PREVENT WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER RISK. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRAVEL FROM NORTHERN
UTAH TO SOUTH DAKOTA FROM EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. UNTIL THE TROUGH AXIS CLEARS WESTERN KANSAS, HIGH CHANCE POPS
WILL BE IN THE FORECAST FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL NOT RESULT IN A FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH THIS FIRST LOW
LIFTING QUICKLY NORTHEAST MID-WEEK WITH A MUCH DEEPER TROUGH
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WEST COAST. A VERY IMPRESSIVE POLAR JET WILL
IMPINGE ON THE WESTERN CONUS ENHANCING THE LEE TROUGH LATE IN THE
WEEK WITH FAIRLY WARM LOWER TROPOSPHERIC TEMPERATURES DEVELOPING AS
A RESULT. HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST HAS BEEN INCREASED WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 19-21Z,
RESULTING IN A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST AT 10-13KTS AND
SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT KGCK/KDDC. BEFORE THEN, WINDS
WILL BE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT AROUND 10 KTS AND VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  89  64  82  57 /  30  30  10  10
GCK  87  62  81  58 /  30  30  10  10
EHA  87  61  79  60 /  20  20  20  20
LBL  88  64  82  60 /  20  30  20  10
HYS  88  60  77  53 /  30  30   0   0
P28  91  67  85  57 /  20  30  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...FINCH



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