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000
FXUS63 KDDC 241718
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1218 PM CDT Wed May 24 2017

...updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Wed May 24 2017

Stratocumulus has dissipated, leaving a clear sky and strong
radiational cooling this morning. As of midnight, upper 30s
already being reported at Scott City, Syracuse and Ulysses.
Dewpoints also in the upper 30s will prevent much more of a drop,
but temperatures of 38-42 will be common at sunrise (normal is mid
50s). In fact, the record low at Dodge City for May 24 is 39/2001,
and we will be close to that number.

Wednesday...After the chilly start, one of the nicest days of the
year! Full sunshine, light winds 10 mph or less, and comfortable
temperatures ranging from near 70 near Hays, to near 75 at Dodge
City, to near 80 near Elkhart. Enjoy!

Tonight...Clear and not as cool. SE winds increase after sunset at
10-15 mph, keeping most locales in the upper 40s and lower 50s
Thursday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Wed May 24 2017

Thursday...A strong warmup expected. 00z ECMWF warms 850 mb
temperatures to near +23C at Dodge City, and to near +29C at
Elkhart. In the expected mixed boundary layer, this translates to
afternoon temperatures well into the 80s, with lower 90s from
Elkhart to Hugoton to Liberal. Grids and forecast are dry for all
zones through 7 pm Thursday under a strong capping inversion/EML.
By evening, models gin up a decent ~990 mb surface low near Lamar,
Colorado, with a CAPE axis of 1000-1500 J/kg along the KS/CO
border. GFS forecast soundings across the western zones show a
well-pronounced inverted-V profile, with significant downdraft
CAPE to near 1500 J/kg, leaning to a potential for strong
downbursts and outflow winds (dry microbursts). ECMWF does show
some convective initiation across the western counties Thursday
evening. GFS shows initiation over NE Colorado Thursday afternoon,
with a possible MCS impacting NW KS Thursday evening. Pop grids
favoring the northern zones Thursday evening are leaning toward
the GFS solutions, and SPCs marginal 5% wind/hail probabilities
Thursday evening. With a warm boundary layer and strong inverted-V
soundings, primary threat would be wind gusts to near 60 mph.

Friday...Potential for active thunderstorms. Frontal boundary sags
south through SW KS Thursday night, with a NE wind Friday morning
veering SEly Friday afternoon. As such, upslope components and
boundary layer moisture will improve. With zonal flow aloft and
very little forcing for ascent, convective evolution will be
highly dependent on orographic forcing in Colorado Friday
afternoon (near the Palmer Divide/Limon), and subsequent MCS
behavior downstream into western Kansas Friday night. Scattered
pops favor the northern counties in line with GFS, but have noted
00z ECMWF`s strong QPF/MCS signal in western Kansas Friday night.
GFS solutions have also strongly signaled MCS evolution, but the
GFS MCS tracks through NW KS and Nebraska. Atmosphere over SW KS
will be much more favorable for severe weather Friday afternoon
and evening, with CAPE upwards of 2000 j/kg and backed surface
flow. Feel supercells in eastern Colorado will grow upscale into a
forward propagating MCS into KS Friday night, much like ECMWF
suggests, with damaging winds to 70 mph the primary risk. Given
this is the first night of a holiday weekend, with many people
heading outdoors, will highlight this threat in social media
products starting on this shift.

Saturday...Several degrees cooler, with N/NE winds behind cold
frontal boundary (and/or MCS outflow boundary), sagging south to
near I-40 by afternoon. Models suggest some scattered elevated
showers and thunderstorms remain possible Saturday in this post-
frontal environment, but the warm sector and associated severe
weather threat is expected to be pushed well south of SW KS.

Sunday...A beautiful spring day for Memorial Day weekend. Sunny
and dry, a light north wind, and temperatures in the 70s.

Memorial Day...Rain chances limited, with continued mild
temperatures in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Wed May 24 2017

Light and variable winds over the next 12 hours will become more
southerly with speeds up to 15kt and gusts to 25 kts by Thursday
morning. Ceilings will not be an issue and VFR conditions expected
through the TAF period.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  73  51  84  56 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  79  50  88  54 /   0   0  10  20
EHA  82  51  91  53 /   0   0  10  10
LBL  79  51  90  55 /   0   0   0  10
HYS  70  49  81  56 /   0   0   0  40
P28  72  50  83  60 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Russell