Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 250942
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
442 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

ACTIVE EVENING TO OVERNIGHT OF SEVERE CONVECTION HAS EXITED SOUTHWEST
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS AS STORMS ARE FOLLOWING THE NOSE OF A LOW
LEVEL JET INTO EASTERN KANSAS. BASED ON THIS SETUP, THE MORNING
HOURS LOOK RELATIVELY QUIET ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AS A WEAK
PACIFIC FRONT/TROUGH MOVES INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS BUT IS ENTERING A
FAIRLY WORKED OVER ENVIRONMENT. UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY,
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE QUICKLY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S EXPECTED FOR HIGHS.

ATTENTION NOW SHIFTS TOWARD LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING AS
THE UPPER WAVE PLAGUING THE REGION OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS,
FINALLY EJECTS EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS. WITH DECENT SOLAR
INSOLATION AND A MOIST AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT/TROUGH, EXPECT
THE ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE QUICKLY WITH CAPE VALUES AROUND 2000
J/KG POSSIBLE BY MID AFTERNOON. COMBINE THIS WITH LITTLE TO NO
INHIBITION VIA LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM THE APPROACHING WAVE, AND
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY BY
EARLY EVENING. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT LOOKS MORE ON THE MARGINAL
SIDE AS SHEAR PROFILES DO NOT SUPPORT SUPERCELLS BUT MORE OF A
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WIND THREAT. WITH THIS BEING STATED, A FEW
STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE AND WIND GUSTS
OF 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

HIGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN REGARD TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND
CONVECTIVE/FLOODING THREATS. LARGE DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODEL OUTPUT
FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EXIST. THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR
STORMS TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING, AS THE NAM IS INDICATING AT
THIS TIME, WITH REGENERATION LATER IN THE DAY AND EVENING. HOWEVER,
THE SHEAR LOOKS WEAK, SUPPORTING MORE OF A HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN
THREAT THAN SUPERCELLS. THE SHEAR INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY ON
WEDNESDAY WHICH HAS LOOKED LIKE A GOOD SEVERE WEATHER DAY FOR A
FEW SHIFTS RUNNING NOW. THE MEAN UPPER FLOW SHIFTS TO A TROUGH
ACROSS THE DESERT SW LATE IN THE WEEK, WITH ADDITIONAL
OPPORTUNITIES FOR WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT DRIFTING THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS REGION. THE MODEL
CONSENSUS FORECAST WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD
GIVEN THE FORECAST AREA HAS GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THESE
POTENTIALLY POORLY TIMED/PREDICTABLE FORCING MECHANISMS. A
RELATIVELY DRY PERIOD MAY SETUP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A MID LEVEL
RIDGE IS INDICATED BY THE EC/GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 131 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

ACTIVE EVENING TO EARLY OVERNIGHT OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IS BEGINNING TO SLOW DOWN FOR THE GCK AND HYS
TERMINALS WHILE A COUPLE MORE HOURS WILL EXIST FOR DDC. OTHERWISE,
CEILING AND VISIBILITY VALUES ARE IMPROVING BEHIND THE CONVECTION
WITH MVFR VALUES ANTICIPATED. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARD THIS
AFTERNOON AS NEXT ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPS ALONG A SLOW
MOVING FRONT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  78  53  78  57 /  30  40  20  20
GCK  76  53  77  55 /  40  40  20  20
EHA  77  53  78  54 /  30  30  20  20
LBL  77  54  79  57 /  30  30  20  20
HYS  77  54  79  56 /  30  40  10  20
P28  78  58  77  60 /  20  30  30  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJOHNSON
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...AJOHNSON


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