Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 202102
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
302 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

...UPDATED SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

TEMPERATURES MAY REACH THE 50 DEGREE MARK LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO THE
NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT FROM NEAR SYRACUSE TO PRATT. THE AIRMASS
IMMEDIATELY TO THE SOUTH ACHIEVED A FEW 50 TO 54 DEGREE HIGHS SO FAR
AS OF 2 PM. MODELS AND MOS PRODUCTS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE MID 20S IN MOST AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT  SAVE THE FAR SOUTHEAST SECTIONS WHERE ADVANCING STRATUS BY
LATE OVERNIGHT  COULD KEEP STUNT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND EFFECTIVELY  WARM
THE SURFACE LAYER. THIS CHANGING MESOSCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE POLAR JET SPREADING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN SHOWING LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING ACROSS
OKLAHOMA AND SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN KS. ALTHOUGH DRIZZLE IS A
POSSIBILITY AND THE TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THE WARM ADVECTION WILL
BE DEFINITELY COLD ENOUGH FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE, THE SETUP ISN`T
CONDUCIVE TO A SIGNIFICANT DRIZZLE EVENT. THE ATMOSPHERE NEEDS TO
SATURATE AND WILL LIKELY ONLY REALIZE A VERY SHALLOW LAYER OF
UPSLOPE BELOW THE SHORT LIVED ROUND OF WEAK VERTICAL LIFT BETWEEN
900 AND 800 MB. THE STRATUS WILL HAVE A NEGATIVE EFFECT OF THE
DIURNAL TREND FOR THE DAY FRIDAY, MAINLY IN THE EAST OF HIGHWAY
283 WHERE THE STRATUS WILL TAKE LONGER TO CLEAR THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

SATURDAY:

A RELATIVELY WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND AS
DOWNSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. INCREASED HIGHS TO
MAINLY IN THE 60S. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH THE DAY. MINIMUMS WILL BE 30S WEST TO 40S EAST.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND:

A FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. WINDS COULD BECOME FAIRLY
STRONG AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
HIGHS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER AND IN THE 50S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND
30S FOR MONDAY MORNING. BEYOND THAT, TEMPERATURES WILL EVENTUALLY MODERATE
AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST AND LEE TROUGHING RESUMES BEFORE
ANOTHER FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH RESULTANT COOLER TEMPERATURES.
MODELS ARE VARYING ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS FRONT, BUT THE ECMWF IS SHOWING
A SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC FRONT WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPS FOR TURKEY DAY. IF
THIS VERIFIES, THAN THE SUPERBLEND SOLUTION AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW IS
TOO WARM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 136 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

THE FOCUS FOR THIS TAF FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE ONSET OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT STRATUS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE DEEPER LIFT
FOR PRECIPITATION PROCESSES SHOULD REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE LOCAL
TERMINALS, HOWEVER LIGHT FOG AND IFR/LIFR STRATUS SHOULD DEVELOP
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AFTER ABOUT 8Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  27  45  32  60 /   0  10  10  10
GCK  27  46  27  61 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  29  52  32  64 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  27  48  28  62 /   0   0   0  10
HYS  24  43  30  58 /  10  10   0  10
P28  31  46  36  60 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...RUSSELL



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