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000
FXUS63 KDDC 140817
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
317 AM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

...UPDATED FOR THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 231 AM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

ANOTHER DRY DAY IS FORECASTED FOR TODAY WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO
THE LOWER 100S. UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE DEPICTED BY
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE OBSERVED IN THE MID LEVELS WITH CONTINUING
WARM TEMPERATURES CAPPING OFF ANY CONVECTION FROM OCCURRING. THIS
WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. GUSTY SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
OBSERVED AT THE SURFACE WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM AROUND 60
DEGREES ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND 50 DEGREES
ACROSS THE KS/CO BORDER. THIS LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION ACROSS FAR
WESTERN KANSAS WILL ALLOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO DIP THE TEENS
INCREASING FIRE DANGER. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECASTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND NORTHWEST KANSAS IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF DODGE CITY`S FORECAST AREA.

UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES
NORTHWARD INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED BUT
WILL HIGH CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO ENVELOPE WESTERN KANSAS. WINDS
DECREASE TO AROUND 15 MPH OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
60S ACROSS THE KS/CO BORDER TO LOWER 70S ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

ON SATURDAY, A SMALL, BUT POTENT UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE NORTH
FROM WESTERN TEXAS AND BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO WESTERN
KANSAS DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  FOR NOW, I THINK 30 PERCENT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE ABOUT RIGHT. THAT WAVE WILL OPEN UP AND
SLOW DOWN SATURDAY EVENING, WITH A FRONT MOVING SOUTH AND TURNING
INTO A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT. CHANCE CATEGORY POPS AROUND 30 PERCENT WILL EXIST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT THEN DIMINISH
TO LESS THAN 20 PERCENT BY 12Z SUNDAY.  THEN THE TEMPORARY ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT BRINGS ANOTHER WAVE OVER THE ROCKIES AND THROUGH
WESTERN KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE FRONT WILL ADVANCE NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE MORE
MOISTURE IN PLACE BY LATE SUNDAY, SO SUNDAY NIGHT MAY HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN.  RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY BY 00Z MONDAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE HAYS TO MEDICINE
LODGE CORRIDOR.  I WENT WITH AS HIGH AS LIKELY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN OUR EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES FROM ELLIS TO STAFFORD TO
BARBER SUNDAY NIGHT. THE QPF WILL LIKELY BE HIGHEST THERE, AND
THE ECMWF, GEM, AND GFS ALL GIVE OVER AN HALF INCH OF RAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL SEE A COOL DOWN, WITH A COLD FRONT HUGGING
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.  THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL
GET SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AND MINOR SHORT WAVES WILL PARADE
THROUGH THE PLAINS.  PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL EXIST FROM MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, AND FINALLY EXIT TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
UPPER WAVES GOING EAST ALOFT AND A WAVERING FRONT ADVANCING NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT AND THEN BACK SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT OR BECOMING
STATIONARY, WILL GIVE INGREDIENTS FOR RAINFALL CHANCES MAINLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER, PRECIP,
AND THE TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGES. TEMPERATURES WILL START
RELATIVELY WARM IN WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY, THEN COOL DOWN TO THE LOWER 80S BY TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTH, THEN REBOUND UPWARD INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 90S THURSDAY AFTER A WARM FRONT ADVANCES NORTH. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL START SUNDAY MORNING IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER
70S, COOL TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, AND
RETURN TO THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70SS BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN FAIRLY DRY. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTH SOUTHWEST IN THE LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO
20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE MIXES AND THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 231 AM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 100 TO 103 DEGREE RANGE
ON THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO
OVER 20 MPH. THIS COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S
WILL RESULT IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING INTO THE TEENS FOR
SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.
THIS WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS AND A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED. ELEVATED TO
HIGH FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. OUTDOOR BURNING
IS DISCOURAGED ACROSS ALL THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 101  72  90  69 /  10  10  30  30
GCK 101  70  92  68 /  10  10  30  40
EHA  98  67  93  68 /  10  10  30  30
LBL  99  70  91  69 /  10  10  30  30
HYS 103  72  92  68 /  10  10  30  30
P28 100  73  91  71 /  10  10  30  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM
CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ043-044-061>063-074>077.

&&

$$

SHORT TEMP...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42
FIRE WEATHER...HOVORKA_42