Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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061
FXUS63 KDDC 240833
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
333 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

...updated discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

The main items of interest for today is the deformation rain band that
is forecast to wrap around the synoptic low and the high wind potential.
The strongest deformation is forecast across eastern Colorado and into
northern Kansas. Therefore, have the highest pops in our north across
the forecast district. Both global and mesoscale guidance have come
into decent agreement with this configuration. The synoptic low is
taking its time before it finally ejects across the Plains tonight.
This should delay the onset on the strongest winds on the backside
of the low. Mixing and an isallobaric response does suggest the need
for a high wind warning. Have cancelled the watch to the east as the
magnitudes look weaker. Have added an end warning buffer since the
low is moving more slowly across the greater region. Rain amounts will
be on the light side as most of the stronger lift and associated instability
with the 500-hPa cold pool is not in our area.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

The long term models continue to show varying solutions and QPF amounts
in the extended period. The 12Z EC showed this with several inches
of QPF throughout the model domain. The good news in this perpetual
drought is that the 00Z EC run continues in progging heavy precipitation
across SW Kansas. The model does continue to vary with the position
of this heavier axis as the synoptic lows/trofs keep changing with
each run. The bottom line is we might see several bouts of showers
and thunderstorms across the forecast district. Moisture from the Gulf
of Mexico shouldn`t be too much of a problem because it looks like
the Gulf will be fairly wide open. Temperatures in the extended look
fairly seasonal and not too warm, which is just what we could use
(a break - from the recent drought and wildfire events).

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

There will be two bouts of precip over the terminals. The first is at
the beginning of the pd with a weakening complex. The second is a wrap
around moisture late today around a low. Otherwise, overnight LLWS
will be possible in association with a strong LLJ. Winds will shift
and increase significantly during the afternoon to northerly. 35-45
kt could be possible at KGCK. Lower magnitudes are likely for KDDC/KHYS.
MVFR stratus also possible towards end of the pd.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  45  61  37  65 /  40  20  10   0
GCK  42  56  34  66 / 100  30  10   0
EHA  41  54  34  67 /  70  30   0   0
LBL  43  59  34  67 /  80  20  10   0
HYS  52  65  38  61 /  30  30  20  10
P28  55  71  42  65 /  10  20  30   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning from 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ this morning to 11 PM
CDT /10 PM MDT/ this evening for KSZ061-062-074-075-084-085.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Sugden



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