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000
FXUS63 KDDC 042343
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
543 PM CST Tue Mar 4 2014

...Updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

Tonight:

A cold front will traverse across the forecast area of responsibility
late tonight. Upslope northeasterly winds are expected in the wake of
the fropa. Forecast boundary layer pressure condensation deficits along
with guidance from the NSSL WRF all hint at the concern for patchy upslope
fog late tonight into tomorrow morning. Meanwhile, strengthening 800-600
hPa frontogenesis and strengthening 285 Kelvin isentropic lift support
the idea of starting pops in the northwest zones and then dropping these
values southeast as the baroclinic boundary shifts south and east. Given
the similar depictions of QPF from both cores of the WRF, this supports
increasing the precipitation chances overall to the low end likely category.

Tomorrow:

Most of the precipitation will occur tomorrow morning. Precipitation
types are a little uncertain, but went ahead with the top down approach,
which suggests a transition over to snow when its all said and done.
WRF-NMM core is higher with QPF and resultant snow accumulations than
compared with the WRF-ARW. The 18Z NAM has come in with more amounts/QPF
than its 12Z run. Will go with widespread 1" amounts in the official
NDFD grids. An isolated 2" report cannot be completely ruled out, particularly,
if the deformation band is stronger than currently forecast. Might have
low balled these snowfall amounts, but given the progressive nature
of the synoptic wave, did not want to get too carried away. Looks like
it could be a low end advisory event, but the general consensus with
WFO neighbors was to not have any highlights attm and see what 00Z data
supports.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 213 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

The extended forecast period, starting with Wednesday night, will
see a short wave exiting to the east of our forecast area.  I will
leave just a slender section of Pratt and Barber Counties for light
snow Wednesday night.  Then on Thursday, as fresh snow cover will be
laid down, but plentiful sunshine will shine down and warm up
southwest Kansas to near 50F degrees in the Stafford to Barber
Counties areas, but zoom temperatures up into the mid 60s in our
west with little snow cover to work with.  South winds will help
keep temperatures somewhat elevated Thursday night in the middle 30s
to lower 40s.  I considered lowering mins a bit over the snow areas
of my eastern CWA, but clouds and south winds can keep the surface
temperatures higher vs lower.  Friday will be partly sunny with
winds becoming north after a cold front passes south, with north
afternoon winds at 15 to 20 mph and gusty.  An upper level trough
will approach from the west late Friday, and will lead to a chance
of rain or snow early Friday night, then a chance of snow for all
the area after midnight Friday night.  I do not see too much
snowfall with this system, but up to an inch in spots.  Lows Friday
night should end up in the mid 20s to around 30F degrees.

On Saturday, the upper flow will return from the west to northwest,
and begin a slow warm up.  Saturday will be in the upper 30s to
lower 40s, then Sunday should warm nicely in to the lower to upper
50s, followed by Monday with highs in the upper 50s to middle 60s.
A weak cold front appears to be crossing north to south on Tuesday
per the ECMWF model, bringing highs in the middle 50s to near 60F.
Low temperatures from Saturday morning through Tuesday morning will
be warming from the middle 20s Sat and Sun, to the middle 30s to
around 40F degrees by Tuesday morning.

A note about the 8 to 14 outlook, upon further looking into the long
range models, this period should be characteristic with below normal
temperatures and maybe near normal precipitation.  Maximum
temperatures should be near normal, but minimum temperatures below
normal.  Another upper wave may cross the plains late Wednesday into
Friday, giving a slight chance for some rain or snow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
ISSUED AT 539 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

VFR conditions are expected for the remainder of this evening with
increasing high clouds AOA200. Mid to Low level clouds increase
after midnight with MVFR conditions expected after 08Z. Freezing
fog is possible towards sunrise lowing ceilings and visibilities
to IFR or even LIFR conditions. Winds will generally be from the
southeast around 10 knots this evening shifting to the northeast
shortly after midnight. Stronger northeast winds at 10 to 15 knots
are anticipated after sunrise with gusts around 25 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  25  31  21  57 /  10  60   0   0
GCK  26  33  22  63 /  30  60   0   0
EHA  29  41  26  66 /  30  50   0   0
LBL  25  36  23  63 /  20  60   0   0
HYS  25  33  19  56 /  50  60   0   0
P28  22  34  18  52 /  10  60  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Burke
AVIATION...Sugden