Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 221743
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1243 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

Precip chances return to western Kansas this evening as an upper
level shortwave trough slides southeast across the Upper Midwest,
sending an attendant frontal boundary further southward across
southwest and central Kansas. Although a weak flow aloft and a
lack of organized shear will prevail, enough instability will be
present to support the potential for isolated thunderstorms in a
band of increased convergence associated with the frontal boundary.
Even though the severe potential is minimal, the environment is
such that a few storms could become strong enough to produce small
hail and gusty winds in excess of 40 to 50 mph. Thunderstorm
chances shift southward closer to the Oklahoma border Sunday as
the frontal boundary pushes further south. With the weak frontal
boundary moving through tonight, look for lows down into the
60s(F) across west central Kansas to the 70s(F) in south central
Kansas. Temperatures will not be quite as hot tomorrow with highs
generally in the 90s(F) Sunday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 353 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

The frontal boundary is expected to push through the forecast area
by Sunday morning. Temperatures behind the front will be
relatively cooler than today and closer to seasonal norms in the
upper 80s to lower 90s. South central Kansas could still spike up
into the mid to upper 90s depending on how far south the front makes
it before stalling out. There will be at least a slight chance for
showers and thunderstorms on Sunday afternoon mainly over the
southern half of the forecast area.

We will see a return of warmer temperatures to the region through
the early part of next week as the upper level ridge rebuilds
over the central High Plains. Another disturbance topping the
upper ridge around mid week could force another cool front south
into western Kansas...along with another increased chance for
thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across portions of southwest
and central Kansas through this evening, potentially affecting KHYS,
and to a lesser extent, KDDC and KGCK. Otherwise, VFR conditions will
prevail through early Sunday. Light and variable winds will persist
early to mid afternoon ahead of weak cold front approaching from the
north. Winds will then turn northerly 10 to 20kt late afternoon into
this evening as the cold front moves further south across southwest
and central Kansas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 103  70  92  68 /  10  20  30  30
GCK 100  68  89  66 /  10  30  30  30
EHA  97  66  89  67 /  20  30  30  30
LBL 101  68  92  69 /  10  20  30  30
HYS 104  70  91  68 /  20  60  30  20
P28 106  75  97  71 /   0  10  30  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ031-045-046-
064>066-077>081-087>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...JJohnson



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