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000
FXUS63 KDDC 220900
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
400 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

...UPDATED FOR SHORT TERM FORECAST...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TODAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE "MAY
LIKE" DURING THE AFTERNOON RISING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS SURFACE PRESSURES FALL ACROSS THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO. THERE WILL BE RATHER STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT THERE COULD BE SOME HIGH
BASED WEAK CONVECTION NEAR THE WARMEST BOUNDARY LAYER AIR.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH THOUGH.

THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BE LIFTING EAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, BUT A WIND MAXIMA ROTATING AROUND THE
LOW WILL HAVE A SURFACE RESPONSE THAT WILL BRING A FRONT INTO THE
AREA BY TONIGHT. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL HAVE AN EASTERLY
COMPONENT AND WITH AN UPSLOPE TRAJECTORY STRATUS MAY VERY WELL
DEVELOP DURING THE NIGHT. WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE WHAT THEY ARE THIS
MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

A PERIOD OF QUIESCENT WEATHER WILL PREVAIL IN WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, AND TEMPERATURES WILL PROVIDE THE BIGGEST FORECAST
CHALLENGE. CONSIDERABLE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD
INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS MORNING AS THE VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IN NEW MEXICO MOVES EAST INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE HIGH
CLOUDINESS WILL THIN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH PROPAGATES EAST
INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. VERY COLD AIR ALOFT WILL PERSIST, AND
AFTERNOON HEATING WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH BASED CUMULUS
CLOUDINESS AGAIN TODAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE SUBTLE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING, AND THE LOW LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. TEMPERATURES AT
H7 ARE CONTINUING TO COOL, AND MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL BE NEARLY
ABSENT THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT, THERE SHOULD BE FEW IF ANY HIGH
BASED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. A SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN EASTERN
UTAH WILL DROP INTO NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO THIS
AFTERNOON, AND THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET STREAK WITH THE MINOR
TROUGH MAY PROVIDE SOME UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO
LATE IN THE DAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS TO HAVE SOME SLIGHT MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY IN FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS, AND A FEW VIRGA SHOWERS MAY
SPREAD FROM COLORADO INTO MORTON COUNTY BEFORE DYING THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN MONDAY AS A
CONSEQUENCE OF THE INVASION OF COOLER AIR LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER WESTERN KANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT, AND
WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
STABILIZES. DEW POINTS IN THE 30S, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND COLD AIR
ALOFT WILL FAVOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING, AND TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP INTO THE 40S DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.

THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IN SASKATCHEWAN WILL BUILD INTO THE
NORTHWEST TERRITORIES AS THE DEEP TROUGH NEAR 130W CLOSES OFF OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE A
LOBE OF THE POLAR VORTEX NORTHEAST OF HUDSON BAY WILL DIG SOUTH TO
JAMES BAY WEDNESDAY, AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
OPEN UP AND MOVE EAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY, AND ANOTHER DAY OF
MILD, QUIET WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED IN WESTERN KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD. THE BASE OF A SMALL S/WV
TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE ORIGINAL UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST WILL SWING THROUGH DURING THE DAY AND SATELLITE IMAGES DOE
SHOW SOME ENHANCEMENT OF MID/UPPER CLOUDS WITH THIS FEATURE.
SURFACE WINDS IN THE PRESENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME
VARIABLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. AS
PRESSURES LOWER TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEAST AND THEN EAST OR NORTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  80  51  73  58 /   0  10  20  40
GCK  80  50  72  58 /   0  10  20  30
EHA  83  54  78  59 /  10  10  30  30
LBL  83  54  75  60 /  10  10  30  30
HYS  74  47  71  56 /   0  10  20  40
P28  80  54  73  59 /   0  10  20  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HUTTON
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...HUTTON