Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 171940
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
240 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING
WILL SLOWLY MEANDER NORTHWARD INTO COLORADO THROUGH TONIGHT. MID
TO UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS
SYSTEM OVER WESTERN KANSAS WILL REMAIN RATHER CHILLY, WITH 500MB
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN -16C AND -20C. AT LOWER LEVELS, MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
HOWEVER, WEAK CAPPING, LOTS OF CONVECTION AND RESULTANT COPIOUS
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW HAS PUSHED THE REALLY RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
(60+ F DEWPOINTS) TO THE RED RIVER AND NORTHERN TEXAS. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING, POSSIBLY SPARKING ANOTHER
CLUSTER OF STORMS THIS MORNING IF THE LOW LEVEL STABLE LAYER CAN
BE OVERCOME AT THIS TIME OF THE DAY. ALTHOUGH SEVERE WEATHER WITH
LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE
AFTER MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST, THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THE LOWER LEVELS
CAN RECOVER ENOUGH FOR SUFFICIENT SURFACE BASED CAPE. GIVEN THE
COLD UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN
KANSAS, THERE WILL PROBABLY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR LARGE HAIL
AT LEAST THE SIZE OF QUARTERS OR HALF DOLLARS. IF DEWPOINTS
RECOVER INTO THE MID 50S, THEN CAPE COULD REACH 1500 J/KG, ALONG
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ROTATING STORMS AND LARGER HAIL UP TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER. LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL TODAY, BUT
ANY MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES COULD RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME TORNADO
POTENTIAL. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY FOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S TODAY, EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS SOME MID 70S AROUND
ELKHART. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING BELOW THE 50S TONIGHT ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS, EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS SOME UPPER 40S ALONG THE
COLORADO BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE VERY SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION UNTIL IT FINALLY CLEARS THE REGION...WHICH WILL NOT BE
UNTIL SOMETIME SUNDAY. WE WILL BE KEEPING SOME CHANCE POPS
ALONG/NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER AS THE 500-700MB DEFORMATION AXIS
PIVOTS EASTWARD ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY SUNDAY. STRONG NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
FOLLOW ON SUNDAY AND AN OVERALL COOL, DAMP, WINDY DAY APPEARS QUITE
LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WE WILL SEE SOME SCATTERING OUT OF
CLOUDS BY LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST, BUT IT
WILL NOT LAST LONG AS ANOTHER MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE
SWINGING SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AROUND A DEEPENING
UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES LONGWAVE GYRE. THIS WILL ONLY ACT TO KEEP
COOL TEMPERATURES AROUND MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
RAIN IN A WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW DEFORMATION AXIS. BY MID-WEEK, WE WILL
SEE SOME WEAK RIDGING APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS WITH WESTERN KANSAS
IN THE MIDDLE OF A SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN. ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS, THE
CONTINUED AMPLIFICATION OF THE NORTHERN BRANCH WILL LEAD TO A MERGER
OF NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY WITH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH JET ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST REGION. MEANWHILE, THE AFOREMENTIONED GREAT LAKES
LONGWAVE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN INFLUENCE WITH A COLD AIRMASS
(FOR MID/LATE APRIL) LOCKED IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE MIDWEST REGION. A FAIRLY ROBUST LOWER TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC
ZONE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS APPEARS
TO BE A SETUP FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED (A) PRECIPITATION EVENT(S)
AFFECTING SOUTHWEST KANSAS LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. IT IS UNCLEAR
HOW THIS WILL ALL UNFOLD AT DAYS 7-10 IN THE FORECAST, BUT THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN CERTAINLY APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR A WETTER THAN
AVERAGE 3-5 DAY PERIOD FOR MID TO LATE APRIL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
WILL CONTINUE TO REFLECT 20-40 POPS FOR EACH PERIOD MID-LATE NEXT
WEEK AS THIS WET PATTERN TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

IFR STRATUS CLOUDS WERE SCATTERING OUT FASTER THAN EXPECTED THIS
EARLY AFTERNOON, AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEPTH WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON. SURFACE BASED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND RAIN AND ISOLATED STORMS EXPECTED IN THE OVERNIGHT,
WITH GENERALLY HIGHER CEILINGS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  52  72  46  64 /  30  30  30  30
GCK  48  69  45  61 /  40  30  20  20
EHA  42  68  44  62 /  10  20  20  10
LBL  46  71  46  63 /  20  20  20  10
HYS  56  72  49  61 /  70  50  50  60
P28  56  75  51  66 /  80  50  60  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ084.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...RUSSELL



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