Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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322
FXUS63 KDDC 242001
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
301 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

...updated short and long term...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Tue May 24 2016

Focus in the short term is severe weather tonight. Satellite shows cumulus
across southwest Kansas. Sfc analysis shows an old outflow boundary
moving north across the forecast district and a dryline farther to the
southwest. We launched at 19Z special sounding. There is plenty of SBCAPE
with values over 4000 J/kg. The sounding did show a significant cap
in place, but this should erode over time with continued sfc heating.
Wind shear is supportive for supercells with 38 kt of 0-6 km bulk shear
and 21 kt of 0-1 km shear for tornadoes. The 12Z 4 km NAM showed intense
supercells across southwest Kansas with significant updraft helicity.
The HRRR is showing the same thing, although differs in location of
the storms. Convection should form along the boundary across southwest
Kansas (probably from Garden City down to Meade) and then move to the
east through this evening. Threats will include tornadoes (some of which
could be strong), giant hail of 3-4", and outflow winds as the system
could form into a line later on in the evening. The central zones are
most under the gun as far as severe weather is concerned.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Tue May 24 2016

The next chance for storms in on Thursday as a wave moves out. Severe
weather is possible once again during the afternoon and evening. The
best chance of storms will be across the eastern zones. Beyond this
we may see another chance of storms next weekend. Temperatures through
the extended period will be on the warm to near normal side.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Tue May 24 2016

KDDC is slowly improving out of LIFR conditions this morning and should
be MVFR by 19Z. KGCK/KHYS will remain VFR. Attention then turns to afternoon
convection. Latest guidance has the dryline east of KGCK, so don`t have
TS/CB in the TAF. Do have CB/TS first for KDDC and then later for KHYS
this afternoon and evening. KDDC stands the best chance for seeing +TSRA.
Otherwise, winds will be ESE to SSE 12-25 kt.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  61  89  57  87 /  70   0   0  20
GCK  58  90  52  87 /  40   0   0  20
EHA  53  90  52  86 /   0   0   0  10
LBL  56  91  54  89 /  20   0   0  10
HYS  62  87  57  85 /  70   0   0  50
P28  65  90  66  88 /  70   0   0  50

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Sugden



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