Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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349
FXUS63 KDDC 131807
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1207 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

Short range models indicate a weak upper level shortwave trough
moving across the Northern Rockies early this evening then
dipping southeastward into the Northern Plains overnight before
moving into the Upper Midwest Sunday. Meanwhile, an attendant
cold front is projected to push southeast through western Kansas
early Sunday morning. However, a less than robust flow aloft
combined with much drier air in the lower/mid levels will keep
conditions fairly dry through Sunday afternoon. As for temperatures
tonight, a prevailing low level southerly flow will help erode
the colder air mass across the high plains before a cold front
begins to push into western Kansas early Sunday morning. Look for
lows down into the 30s(F) with the upper 20s(F) possible across
west central Kansas and near the I-70 corridor. For Sunday, highs
may struggle to reach the 50s(F) near the I-70 corridor as cooler
air filters southward into western Kansas during the day. Highs
in the 50s(F) are more likely further south near the Oklahoma
border.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

Models have been consistent with a followup/secondary vort lobe
rotating through a bit farther south about 24 hours later which
will improve chances for rain or snow late Sunday night into very
early Monday morning. The remainder of the forecast period will
see rising thicknesses and more northwest flow aloft, resulting in
a warming trend through at least Thursday. Could not rule out
another 80 degree reading by Thursday as a warm dry downslope
pattern once again develops and possibly critical fire weather
conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Sunday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

MVFR cigs will linger in the vicinity of KGCK through early this
afternoon as a stratus deck slowly erodes away. Otherwise, VFR
conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through early Sunday
morning. Gusty southerly winds around 20 to 30kt will persist
through late this afternoon as a lee side trough of low pressure
strengthens across eastern Colorado. The winds will subside below
20kt this evening with the loss of daytime heating then turn
northerly 10 to 20kt early Sunday morning as a weak cold front
moves through.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  30  56  31  62 /   0  10  80   0
GCK  30  57  30  64 /   0  10  80   0
EHA  35  58  32  66 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  32  58  30  66 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  27  52  31  58 /   0  10  80   0
P28  32  58  33  64 /   0  10  80   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...JJohnson



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