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000
FXUS63 KDDC 071205
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
605 AM CST Fri Mar 7 2014

...Updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014

Short range models indicate weak upper level ridging moving eastward
out of the Central Plains today. Meanwhile, the upper level
shortwave in the Pacific Northwest will deepen as it digs southeast
across the Colorado Rockies into the Western High Plains later today
bringing the possibility for precip to portions of western Kansas
this evening into early Saturday. As the upper level system
approaches, an attendant cold front ahead of it will push southeast
across southwest and central Kansas this afternoon while moisture
continues to pool ahead of the boundary. Although the flow aloft
is expected to remain fairly weak, precip is likely to develop
sometime this evening across west central and extreme southwest
Kansas in a band of increased H7 frontogenesis, then spread
southeastward overnight into early Saturday morning. Based on
NAM/GFS model soundings, initial precip type is expected to be
liquid with a switchover to snow generally west to east as colder
air surges southward dropping vertical profile temperatures below
freezing. Snow amounts may be a challenge though depending how
much liquid falls beforehand, potentially melting initial
snowfall. Still, both the NAM and GFS indicate QPF signals of just
over a quarter inch across extreme southwest Kansas toward 12Z
Saturday morning. As a result, upward of 1 to 2 inches of snow
may be possible generally along and west of Highway 83 in far
southwest Kansas with lighter amounts eastward. An advisory
may be needed eventually Saturday morning for western portions
of southwest Kansas.

Temperatures will be cooler today as colder air begins to surge
southward into western Kansas in wake of a cold front pushing
through the region by this afternoon. The NAM/GFS show the H85
0C isotherm dipping southward into central Kansas by early to mid
afternoon resulting in cooler high temperatures near the I-70
corridor. Highs are expected well up into the 40s(F) with near
50F possible here with the 50s(F) further south. A few lower to
mid 60s(F) may be possible closer to the Oklahoma border depending
on the timing of the frontal boundary. Look for lows down into the
20s(F) Friday night as arctic high pressure pushes southward out
of the Northern Plains into Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014

The Tonight/Saturday snow event across mainly the southwestern and
south-central portions of the forecast area (south of the Arkansas
River to the Oklahoma border) will most likely be coming to an end
late morning to around midday along the Oklahoma border as the 700mb
zone of frontogenesis becomes more elongated and weaker. Mid-level
subsidence will quickly move in with clearing skies from northwest
to southeast during the afternoon hours. With far west-central
Kansas seeing more sunshine, they will be the warmest across the
region. Cold air advection from overnight into early morning will
quickly be erased by overwhelming downslope momentum warming. The
extreme southeastern portion of the forecast area (Barber County)
will likely hold in the 30s all day with light snow not ending there
until around midday or perhaps early afternoon.

The late weekend weather will be much warmer and tranquil as
downslope momentum really takes hold across the northern and central
High Plains. A marked warm-up at the surface will result, especially
Monday, when afternoon temperatures should exceed 70 just about
everywhere across western Kansas. Going into early next week, we
will be watching another storm system develop across the
Intermountain West and Rockies Monday Night into Tuesday. There
remains tremendous uncertainty regarding sensible weather outcome
and impacts with this storm system. The latest ECMWF run now
suggests much better mid and low level cyclogenesis across Kansas
favoring a more ominous, rather high-impact winter weather event
complete with moderate accumulating snow and high wind. It should be
known that this is the only model showing such a robust solution at
this time, however the ECMWF is our most skillful deterministic
global model at this time frame (Day 4-6), so the solution must be
respected. As far as the official forecast is concerned, we only
raised POPs just a little bit into the chance category Tuesday
Night. Hopefully, the global models will come into some better
agreement regarding the Tuesday Night/Wednesday storm system to
provide a more confident forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 604 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014

A wind shift to the north will occur at GCK and DDC in the 13-14Z
time frame, but wind speeds behind the front will not increase until
around 16-18Z as the surface low begins to develop further and begin
moving east across the Oklahoma panhandle. Light snow will develop
late tonight, especially at GCK and will go with lowest visibility
there during the 06-12Z Saturday time frame. HYS terminal may not go
into IFR during this event, or if so, for only a few hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  55  25  42  26 /  10  60  60   0
GCK  53  25  47  26 /  20  60  50   0
EHA  60  28  47  28 /  20  60  60   0
LBL  60  27  44  26 /  20  60  70   0
HYS  50  25  48  26 /  10  30  30   0
P28  57  27  37  24 /  10  60  70   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ this evening to
9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ Saturday FOR KSZ061>063-074>076-084>086.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Umscheid