Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 141815
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1215 PM CST Sat Jan 14 2017

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 1215 PM CST Sat Jan 14 2017

Impacts of a strong winter storm will affect southwest and central
Kansas tonight and Sunday as short range models indicate a strong
closed off upper level low shifting slowly eastward out of Baja
California into extreme west Texas during the period. This will
continue to influence an increasingly difluent southwest flow aloft
across the Western High Plains while increasing low/mid level
moisture transport spreads north and west across the region. As a
result, a drier H85-H7 boundary shown on this morning`s DDC sounding
will begin to slowly saturate through this evening. Meanwhile, an
easterly upslope flow will develop across the area tonight
increasing lift across the area as surface high pressure in the
Upper Midwest begins to push slowly eastward. Factoring in recent
radar trends, widespread precip across the Texas and Oklahoma
panhandles will continue to spread slowly northeast into south
central and portions of southwest Kansas this evening through Sunday
afternoon.

With model soundings showing H85 temperatures around 3C to 8C while
higher than forecast temperatures this afternoon are expected to
drop to around 27F to 32F tonight, look for primarily rain late this
afternoon with a switch over to freezing rain later this evening as
precip overspreads the region. Based on NAM/GFS/ECMWF QPF fields, we
could see widespread ice accumulations ranging around .5 to 1.0
inch. Locally higher amounts above 1.0 inch cannot be ruled out.
Ice accumulation will likely be hindered initially because of the
aforementioned higher temperatures this afternoon.

Factoring in steadily climbing surface dewpoints, lows tonight are
expected to only drop into the mid to upper 20s(F) with near 30F
possible in locations closer to the Oklahoma border. Temperatures
will not climb much Sunday with highs expected only up into the
lower to mid 30s(F) by the afternoon time frame.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 340 AM CST Sat Jan 14 2017

Significant icing will continue Sunday and Sunday night in
southwest Kansas. Temperatures Sunday may rise above freezing in
Comanche, Pratt and Barber Counties but will remain below freezing
elsewhere. As the upper level cyclone moves into western Kansas
Sunday night and Monday, low level north flow will increase, and
cooler temperatures will spread south in the lee of the Rockies.
Precipitation will change to sleet or snow as the cold air spreads
east, and a few inches of snow accumulation can be expected before
the precipitation winds down Monday morning. There may be
sufficient freezing rain yet after 12Z Monday in Trego and Ellis
Counties to merit extending the ice storm warning, but confidence
in the precipitation type and intensity is not high enough to
justify doing so at this time. Increasing north winds Monday will
cause additional damage to ice coated trees and power lines.
Temperatures will remain cool Monday with highs from the lower 30s
in west central Kansas to the lower 40s in south central Kansas.

Significant warming will occur Tuesday and Wednesday as strong
west to southwest flow across the northern Rockies result in
development of an extensive warm plume in the lee of the
mountains. Another strong upper level trough will move into the
western United States Thursday and approach the Central Plains
Friday. Although low level moisture will be limited, there may be
a few showers as the trough moves across Kansas Friday and Friday
night. A blocky pattern will evolve late in the week as an upper
level anticyclone builds west of Hudson Bay and a deep upper level
cyclone closes off over the Southern Plains. Cooler air will
invade Kansas next Sunday as the surface cyclone deepens along the
Gulf Coast, but arctic air will be confined to Alaska and
northwestern Canada. Moisture flowing around the deepening cyclone
probably will result in another opportunity for rain or snow,
especially in southern Kansas, next Saturday night and Sunday.

In the longer term, a return to colder weather appears likely
from late January into February. Stratospheric warming is in
progress over Asia, and the numerical models suggest that the warm
pool will spread into Alaska and the northwest territories by the
last week of January. In addition, a coherent area of upper level
divergence will enhance thunderstorm coverage in the western
Indian Ocean by late January, and energy propagation from this
thunderstorm cluster will favor ridging Alaska and western Canada.
Details that far out are highly uncertain, but it is likely that
there will be additional invasions of cold arctic air after 26
January.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1100 AM CST Sat Jan 14 2017

MVFR cigs will persist in the vicinity of KDDC and KGCK through
late this evening as low level stratus prevails across southwest
and central Kansas during the period. MVFR cigs will develop later
tonight at KHYS. Periods of IFR cigs will then be possible later
tonight as areas of freezing rain begin to move northward out of
Oklahoma into southwest and south central Kansas. Easterly winds 5
to 10kt will develop late this afternoon then persist across
southwest and central Kansas through early Sunday morning as high
pressure shifts slowly eastward across the Upper Midwest.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  35  25  32  28 /  60  90  90  90
GCK  36  25  32  27 /  30  90  90  80
EHA  34  28  33  26 /  70 100  90  80
LBL  34  28  33  27 /  70 100  90  90
HYS  34  25  30  27 /  30  70  80  80
P28  34  28  36  32 /  70 100  90  90

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Ice Storm Warning until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Monday for KSZ030-
031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...Ruthi
AVIATION...JJohnson



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