Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
FXUS63 KDDC 300114
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
814 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016
Issued at 814 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2016
Based on radar trends in eastern Colorado and the latest HRRR
solutions, increased thunderstorm coverage across the western
zones toward midnight. HRRR has a good handle on storm coverage at
present, and suggests likely coverage mainly west of Garden City.
Per coordination with SPC, strongest risk for damaging winds will
be across Hamilton/Kearny county vicinity toward midnight.
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2016
A wind shift line has moved to between Garden City and Dodge City
this afternoon with some cumulus just south of Dodge City, and
another area of more enhanced cumulus in parts of Barber County.
Forecast soundings are unstable with only a weak cap over the Dodge
City area and 2000 to 3000 J/kg forecast CAPE. There could be an
isolated thunderstorm near the wind shift line and then a slightly
better chance in the Barber County area. If any storm develops it
could go briefly severe with quarter hail and a strong wind gust.
Then later tonight, models show the best chances for rainfall are
mainly north of Dodge City, however with this current northwest flow
pattern, any storms that develop in eastern Colorado and Nebraska
could dive southward into much of the area. Will keep 30 to 50
percent chance going. Severe storms do not look likely with the main
threat of strong outflow winds, small hail, and heavy rainfall with
any storm complex that can develop. It may also be more difficult
for storms to form in far western Kansas this evening and overnight
as 700 mb temps are fairly warm around 15C. Lows tonight will range
from the mid to upper 60s with light southeast winds.
For Thursday, a stronger shortwave in northwest flow aloft is
forecast for the afternoon and evening with an attendant cold front
moving across western Kansas. Will keep fairly high chances for
rainfall going, again with a potential of heavy rainfall. Could also
have a chance of strong to severe storms with stronger wind shear
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2016
For the period of Thursday night into next Wednesday, an ongoing
convective complex of storms may be moving across parts of western
Kansas Thursday night with aggravated northwest flow aloft. For
Friday northwest flow aloft begins to transition to more zonal flow
with more shortwaves forecast into Sunday across the Western High
Plains. Will keep fairly high chances going for rainfall, and areas
of heavy rainfall still look good. After Sunday, rainfall chances
decrease as the main upper jet and any shortwaves move north.
Highs will be cooler and in the 80s into Sunday, but then warm back
into the 90s by mid week next week. Lows will be mainly in the 60s
then warm to around 70 after Monday.
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 600 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2016
NW flow aloft expected to spread more SHRA/TSRA into SW Kansas
again late tonight. HRRR model solution indicates thunderstorm
complex over NE Colorado at 23z will move rapidly SE and begin
affecting the terminals around midnight. HRRR solution performed
well with last night`s convection, so used it again as a first
approximation to place convective TEMPO groups in the 00z TAFs.
Strong outflow winds to 50 kts will again be the primary concern,
with HRRR suggesting impacts to aviation are most likely at GCK.
Stronger shortwave in the NW flow arrives Thursday, with NAM model
suggesting potentially widespread TSRA after 18z Thursday. Only
included VCTS/CB for now, but TEMPOs are likely with future TAF
packages for Thursday.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 68 89 65 82 / 30 50 60 50
GCK 67 88 65 83 / 40 50 60 50
EHA 67 91 64 86 / 30 50 60 50
LBL 68 92 66 87 / 30 50 60 50
HYS 66 85 64 81 / 40 40 40 50
P28 69 91 68 84 / 30 50 60 50