Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 301710
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1210 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

...UPDATED SYNOPSIS AND AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

AT 12Z MONDAY A +90 KNOT 250MB JET EXTENDED FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA
TO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS WITH LEFT EXIT REGION OF THIS UPPER JET
BEING LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. FURTHER NORTH AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.
OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS A NORTHWEST FLOW WAS
PRESENT WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW
BEING LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED FROM EASTERN COLORADO TO WESTERN
NEBRASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

ANOTHER DRY SHORT TERM PERIOD IS EXPECTED. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES
ARE THE SURFACE  WINDS, TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS. AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST THIS MORNING, THE DRIEST AIR WILL BECOME
DISPLACED BY SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW POINT AIR ON THE RETURN FLOW
SIDE OF THE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH WARMEST READINGS IN THE FAR WEST AND
LIKELY IN THE LOW 80S. THE SURFACE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO THE
15 TO 20 MPH RANGE , BUT WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY WEST OF A HAYS TO
DODGE AND LIBERAL LINE BY AFTERNOON AS A SHARP SURFACE TROUGH/VERY
WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS NW KS.

MAINLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT SKIES ARE EXPECTED, A GOOD SETUP FOR
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL BE HIGHER
IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE MORE MILD OVERNIGHT
LOWS THAN THE HIGHER ELEVATION WESTERN PLAINS. LOWS COULD VARY BY
10 DEGREES OR MORE FROM SYRACUSE TO MEDICINE LODGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE, A BROAD RIDGE ON THE MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERE
WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY AS A PACIFIC
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INLAND FROM THE PAC NORTHWEST TO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL INDUCE LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A WEAKER LOW DEVELOPING
ALONG THE LEE TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY. IMMEDIATELY
SOUTH OF THE WESTERN KANSAS LOW, A VERY WARM DOWNSLOPE AIRMASS WILL
OVERSPREAD SOUTHWEST KANSAS, LEADING TO HOT TEMPERATURES (BY APRIL
1ST STANDARDS). WE HAVE INCREASED THE HIGHS ACROSS THE BOARD TO THE
UPPER 80S, WITH PERHAPS A COUPLE OF 90-DEGREE READINGS SOMEWHERE
FROM GARDEN CITY TO LIBERAL OR THEREABOUTS.

THE WESTERLY MOMENTUM IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE WILL TRANSLATE TO THE
SURFACE IN THE AFTERNOON, SO THE MORNING ADVECTION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ON SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PUSH EAST ON SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE MOISTURE PUSHING EAST, THE
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE QUITE LOW, AND CONFINED MAINLY
TO CENTRAL KANSAS AREAS FROM HAYS TO STAFFORD. A DRYLINE WILL
SHARPEN BY LATE AFTERNOON, AND THE ECMWF INDICATES THAT A DRYLINE
STORM MAY FORM SOMEWHERE FROM GREENSBURG SOUTH INTO FAR NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA. SHOULD A DRYLINE STORM FORM WEDNESDAY, THERE SHOULD BE
ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY FOR LARGE HAIL. GETTING A
STORM IN THE FIRST PLACE WILL BE QUITE THE OBSTACLE WITH VERY WARM
700MB TEMPERATURES IN THE +6 TO +8C RANGE (VERY WARM FOR THE FIRST
OF APRIL).

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THURSDAY
TEMPERATURES 15 TO PERHAPS 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY. A
SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES, AND WITH THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE OVERHEAD LATE
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT, THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE AT
PRECIPITATION. 20-30 POPS ARE IN ORDER AREAWIDE THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY LOOKS EVEN COOLER WITH TEMPERATURES STUCK IN THE 50S MUCH OF
THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL MOVE EAST INTO
WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY APPROACHES
THE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS BY 21Z
MONDAY, AND THEN FALL BACK TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY 00Z TUESDAY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED GIVEN ONLY HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS LATE
TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

DRY AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE DRIVEN TO BELOW 15
PERCENT MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 THIS AFTERNOON JUST AS THE WIND
SPEED IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASE TO
AROUND THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE. AS A RESULT ALTHOUGH FIRE DANGER
WILL BE ELEVATED THIS AFTERNOON, CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY LOW FOR
RED FLAG CRITERIA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  80  45  82  51 /   0   0  10  10
GCK  81  41  82  48 /   0   0  10  10
EHA  80  45  82  48 /   0  10  10  10
LBL  80  46  83  49 /   0  10  10  10
HYS  80  42  79  50 /   0   0  10  10
P28  77  47  84  53 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BURGERT
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...BURGERT
FIRE WEATHER...RUSSELL


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