Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 311721
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1221 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE HRRR WAS INDICATING A BROKEN LINE OF RELATIVELY LIGHT
REFLECTIVITY MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED DEVELOPMENT
ZONE INTO CENTRAL KS BY AROUND 10-12 UTC. THIS SOLUTION WAS FOLLOWED
WITH BASICALLY LOW POPS BELOW 20 PERCENT. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT ISSUE
FOR THE DAY WILL BE A LATE DAY OR EVENING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THE
NMM AND ARW MODEL RUNS DEVELOPED A QLCS TYPE BOWING SEGMENT ACROSS
NORTHERN KS, ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT/DRYLINE INTERSECTION
OVER NORTHERN KS. FARTHER SOUTH, OVER OUR AREA, ANY CONVECTION IN
THESE SOLUTIONS COULD BE GENERALLY MORE DISCREET AND MORE HIGH BASED
(HAIL AND WIND THREATS POSSIBLE) WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER, IT IS POSSIBLE OUTFLOWS/COLD POOLS COULD FORCE
MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT FARTHER BRINGING MORE OF OUR AREA
INTO A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MORE BREEZY AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE THIS
AFTERNOON. MODELS SUGGEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE
COMMON WITH GUSTS IN TO JUST UNDER 30 KNOTS. YESTERDAY`S HIGHS OF
LOW 90S TO MID 90S IN THE SOUTHWEST SECTIONS ARE A REASONABLE TELL
FOR HIGHS TODAY. THE LATEST SHORT TERM CONSENSUS SUPPORTS MID 90S
TO NEAR 100 DEGREES IN THE SW GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR AND BETTER DOWNSLOPE. WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
POTENTIAL MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER OUTFLOW ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT, A
LARGE GRADIENT OF AROUND 20 DEGREES COULD EXIST FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS
FROM MID 50`S OUT WEST TO MID 70S IN THE PRATT COLDWATER AND
MEDICINE LODGE AREA SETTING AN EARLY MILD LOW JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE FRONT FOLLOWING TONIGHTS STORM SYSTEM WILL REACH THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT WESTERN OKLAHOMA BY LATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.
THE DAYTIME HOURS MONDAY WILL BE FAIRLY TRANQUIL AS SUBSIDENCE WILL
PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. MODEST TEMPERATURES IN
THE 80S ARE EXPECTED. THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT MONDAY NIGHT AND WE
WILL FIND OURSELVES IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC JET. THIS WILL ENHANCE FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 900-800MB
LAYER, SUPPORTING NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ONCE THE LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS. THE MOST FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY
STORMS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS, WHICH IS WHERE WE WILL
HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE POPS (AROUND 40 PERCENT). THIS FRONTAL ZONE
WILL NOT MOVE TUESDAY, AND WE WILL NEED TO CARRY SOME CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AT OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE FIRST PART OF
SEPTEMBER (MID TO UPPER 80S AS A RULE). THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY
DISSOLVE BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY BY WEDNESDAY, AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW FIELD BEGINS TO RESPOND TO LOWER PRESSURE MUCH
FARTHER NORTH WHERE THE POLAR JET WILL BE LOCATED. THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM MID-WEEK WILL BE MUCH FARTHER NORTH WITH WEAK ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS COLORADO AND KANSAS FOR THE MOST PART. THIS WILL LEAD TO
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER WEATHER. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
CONTINUE TO LOOK LIKE THE HOTTEST DAYS NEXT WEEK WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE 95-100F RANGE FOR MUCH OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN KANSAS.
THE NORTHERN POLAR JET STORM SYSTEM THAT WAS MENTIONED WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS/ADJACENT CANADIAN PRAIRIES
LATE IN THE WEEK, USHERING IN SOME MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS AIRMASS WILL LIKELY REACH KANSAS BY END OF
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE APPEARS TO BE A FAIRLY STRONG
SIGNAL OF COOLER/WETTER WEATHER SEPTEMBER 6-8 TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

A DRYLINE WILL SET UP BETWEEN THE GCK AND DDC TERMINAL THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS FELT ACROSS THE GCK TERMINAL AND
SOUTH TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS FELT AT THE HYS AND DDC TERMINALS. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO OCCUR ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS ABOVE 20 KNOTS AND GUSTS ABOVE 30 KNOTS. WINDS
THEN DIE DOWN THIS EVENING BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE HYS AND DDC
TERMINALS EARLY THIS EVENING BRIEFLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS. I HAVE PLACED A TEMPO GROUP IN THE TAFS TO REFLECT THIS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  99  65  87  65 /  50  30  10  30
GCK 100  62  87  63 /  20  30  10  20
EHA 100  62  91  63 /  10  10  10  10
LBL 103  65  91  64 /  10  20  10  20
HYS  97  64  84  63 /  50  60  20  20
P28  99  71  90  70 /  10  20  20  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42


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