Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 250829
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
229 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

...UPDATED FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A BROAD, UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST FROM THE
PLAINS TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY, AND BE OVER AN AXIS FROM
MINNESOTA TO ILLINOIS TO MISSISSIPPI BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  A
SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL SLOWLY EDGE EAST TODAY
AND BE NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  TODAY WILL
BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING. BY LATE
MORNING, THE APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE WIND SPEEDS TO 15 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTY.
THESE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL AID IN THE WARM UP TODAY, AND HIGHS
SHOULD BE IN A SMALL RANGE, FROM AROUND 50F DEGREES EAST OF
HIGHWAY 183, TO THE MID 50S IN THE HAMILTON, STANTON AND MORTON
COUNTY AREAS.

TONIGHT, THERE IS A WEAK COLD FRONT COMING SOUTH FROM THE WYOMING
PLAINS, AND THE COLD FRONT SHOULD DROP INTO THE SURFACE TROUGH BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND 3 AM CST.  THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME MID LEVEL
CEILINGS WITH IT, BUT I DOUBT THE WHOLE NIGHT TIME PERIOD WILL BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY.  RATHER, SKIES SHOULD START OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY AND
BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS TONIGHT WILL
START OUT WEST AROUND 10 MPH, AND THEN SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AT AROUND 10 MPH AS THE FRONT PASSES BY.  MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE THE COOLEST IN THE SYRACUSE TO
DIGHTON TO WAKEENEY AREAS, AND FALL TO THE MID 20S.  TO CONTRAST
THIS, THE SOUTHEAST ZONES SOUTHEAST OF A ST. JOHN TO KINSLEY TO
ASHLAND LINE, WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH MINS OVERNIGHT, ONLY
FALLING TO THE LOWER 30S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

A VERY MILD WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN THE CARDS FOR THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A BROAD ANTICYCLONICALLY
CURVED PATTERN SETS UP ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND ADJACENT WESTERN
PLAINS. THE PREVIOUS FEARS OF A COLD AND POTENTIALLY WET
THANKSGIVING END OF THE WEEK ARE NOW A DISTANT MEMORY AS JUST THE
OPPOSITE WILL BE HAPPENING. WE HAVE TO GET THROUGH ONE MORE SUBTLE
NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE TO OUR NORTH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT (TRACKING FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS/NORTHWEST
MISSOURI/SOUTHWEST IOWA) BEFORE WE CAN BEGIN OUR WARM-UP. WEDNESDAY
TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE WERE LOWERED QUITE A BIT (8
TO 12 DEGF ACROSS THE AREA) AS REMNANT COLD AIR WILL BE TOUGH TO
DISLODGE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE VERY WEAK RESULTING IN VERY
LIMITED MIXING.

DOWNSLOPE MOMENTUM WILL CRANK UP IN THE 900-800MB LAYER ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A 24-HR 850MB TEMPERATURE INCREASE
OF ABOUT +12C ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
MOMENTUM WILL CONTINUE ABOVE THE SURFACE THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY,
BUT THE SURFACE FLOW WILL MOST LIKELY BE SOUTH OR SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS WILL PREVENT DEEP
MIXING, AND WHILE A WARM-UP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IS
ANTICIPATED, THE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND WAY OUT WEST
TOWARD ELKHART WHERE SURFACE MOMENTUM WILL BE DOWNSLOPE AND MIXING
WILL BE DEEP. MID TO UPPER 60S ARE LIKELY THURSDAY OUT THERE.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THIS WARMTH WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD LOWER TO MID 60S AND NEAR 70 ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWEST KANSAS.  THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS TODAY SHOW AN ARCTIC
AIRMASS CHARGING BACK SOUTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT, THOUGH, WHICH WILL
LEAD TO TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO WINTER REALITY INTO THE 30S AND
40S. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT REMAINS IN QUESTION AT 6 DAYS OUT, OF
COURSE, BUT AS OF RIGHT NOW WE COULD BE LOOKING AT SUNDAY HIGHS IN
THE MORNING IN THE UPPER 40S WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING RAPIDLY INTO
THE 20S OR 30S BY AFTERNOON. THE DAY 7-10 PERIOD LOOKS INTERESTING
AS THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW A TROUGH DEVELOPING OUT ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST REGION, BUT IT IS WAY TOO EARLY AND EXTREMELY UNCLEAR HOW
THIS WILL ALL AFFECT SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND
ADJACENT REGION IN THE DEC 1-4 TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

VFR WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.
THERE IS SOME MID LEVEL ALTOCUMULUS CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH,
GENERALLY AROUND SCT TO BKN AT 090. LATER ON TUESDAY AROUND 15Z,
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AT 15G25 KNOTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  51  29  50  31 /   0  10  10   0
GCK  52  28  50  31 /   0  10   0   0
EHA  53  31  52  36 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  53  28  52  34 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  51  29  44  26 /   0  10  10   0
P28  53  32  51  31 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...BURKE


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