Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
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202 FXUS63 KDDC 070926 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 426 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Critical Fire weather conditions are expected west of highway 283 This Afternoon - A dry weather pattern will persist for several days. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 247 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024 No precipitation is expected for the rest of the week. There will be a couple of fronts that shift wind directions the first of which will be Tonight which will also bring in a canopy of mid to high level cloudiness. North winds behind the trough/front will be quite light for western KS normals, and look to average about 10-13 mph through the overnight. The NBM doesnt venture too far from the previous nights lows averaging upper 40s near Medicine Lodge and lower 40s at Syracuse. This seem reasonable as not a lot differential temperature advection was associated with this last airmass change. Tuesday nights front will impact the highs on Wednesday. Pleasant 70s area wide are the statistical consensus for afternoon highs among the models. Some of the MOS or climate influenced output favor the warmer solutions, but the models themselves area pointing to the slightly cooler outcome. Tuesday night and Wednesday mornings temperatures look to be repeat of the previous couple of nights, in the upper 40s/low 50s southeast to low 40s in the western Ark valley. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 247 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024 A sharply positively tilted upper trough becomes oriented from the western Great Lakes across the Nebraska and Kansas into the Great Basin by Thursday. With additional push of cooler northern High Plains air southward, frontogenesis forced pockets of shower and storms are possible in the region, but look to favor areas north of western KS and west to near the front range. Then heading into the weekend, deterministic models of the main 3 global spectral set are very similar in the mass fields, with a split flow subtropical jet across the sun belt, and a sharp northern Plains trough targeting the Great Lakes. Any kind of front or trough might set off diurnal storms but widespread severe events area not likely given the rich dew point air is relegated to to the southern Plains and lower Mississippi valley. Hence low/slight chances for showers or thunderstorms (10-20%) are peppered through the weekend. The week 2 outlook (day 8-14 by Climate Prediction Center) does lean wet (33-40% chance of wetter than normal conditions), with about a 40-50 percent chance for above normal temps in the same period (May 14-20) . && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 422 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024 Surface winds will gradually increase after sunrise, to the 20 to 26 knot range with strongest gusts around GCK near 35 knots. The area is behind an exiting weather system/cold front that has ushered in drier air and as a result there wont be any impacts form ceilings or surface visibility restrictions at least during the remainder of these TAFs. Some clouds coming back into the picture toward the end of the TAF should not impact aviation as a weak front comes in late tonight - all indications suggest this will be VFR cloud cover based on the forecast sounding temperatures dew point depression traces. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 247 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024 Very dry conditions both This afternoon and Wednesday afternoon. The difference is Today will be quite windy, resulting in the conditions exceeding the red flag criteria across the western half of the forecast area (roughly everywhere west of a line from Wakeeney to Dodge and Ashland, all three included. The expected much weaker winds on Wednesday afternoon precludes the need for another warning, however, the conditions are in the elevated category, meaning open fires can still quickly escape and area very difficult to control. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for KSZ043-044-061>063-074>077-084>087. && $$ SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM...99 AVIATION...99 FIRE WEATHER...99