Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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227
FXUS63 KDDC 191147
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
647 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 157 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST BECOMING MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TODAY. MEANWHILE, A SIGNIFICANT H5 VORT
MAX IS PROGGED TO EJECT NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS SETTING UP THE CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE PERIOD. AS THE SYSTEM
APPROACHES, THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE AS
A +70KT JET CLIMBS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. MEANWHILE, THE
SURFACE HIGH MOVING EAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
ENHANCE MORE OF AN EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WHILE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED ACROSS EASTERN NEW
MEXICO. AS A RESULT, RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING, THEN SLOWLY SPREAD
NORTH AND EAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

ALTHOUGH LIMITED, NAM/GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME INSTABILITY
ALOFT WITH MUCAPE VALUES SLOWLY INCREASING TO ABOVE 500 J/KG THIS
AFTERNOON. BECAUSE OF THE PRESENCE OF SOME INSTABILITY, EMBEDDED
ISOLATED THUNDER MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
KANSAS AS SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. HOWEVER, THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER IS LESS LIKELY, EVEN WITH MORE FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. CONSIDERING THE EXTENDED
DURATION OF THIS EVENT, RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE SIGNIFICANT
ACROSS THE REGION WITH PW VALUES UP AROUND 1 INCH. SOME LOCATIONS
COULD SEE CONSIDERABLY MORE RAIN THAN OTHERS. PERIODS OF RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS.

WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TODAY AS THE COOLER AIR
MASS ALREADY IN PLACE, COMBINED WITH LIKELY PRECIP AND OVERCAST
SKIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY, WILL HELP TO KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES DOWN BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE BY AS MUCH AS 20 TO
25 DEGREES. LOOK FOR HIGHS GENERALLY UP INTO THE 50S(F) TODAY WITH
THE LOWER TO MID 60S(F) POSSIBLE IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. EXPECT
LOWS DOWN INTO THE 40S(F) TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

AFTER THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES TUESDAY NIGHT,
A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE IN
THE 50S WEDNESDAY, WITH LOWER 60S THURSDAY, ALONG WITH LOWS IN THE
40S. AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE APPROACHES FRIDAY, THERE IS A
GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH COOL SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
AND HIGHS IN THE 50S. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH BY
SATURDAY ALONG WITH SURFACE TROUGHING IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES,
AND ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. AS IN THE PAST TWO
WEEKENDS, IT APPEARS THAT THE MAIN WARM SECTOR WILL STAY SOUTH OF
KANSAS SATURDAY, REDUCING THE CHANCES FOR HIGH- END SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL SOME CHANCE OF A FEW SEVERE
STORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY STAY IN THE 60S SATURDAY IF IT STAYS
CLOUDY, WITH LOWER 70S POSSIBLE IF SKIES BECOME PARTIALLY CLEAR.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AS
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSES. WARMER HIGHS IN THE 70S
ARE EXPECTED. THERE IS STILL SOME CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AS WEAKER UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES PASS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IN THE PRESENCE
OF LEE TROUGHING, SOUTH WINDS AND RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SOMEWHAT WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE TAF SITES TODAY AND
TONIGHT. MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 06Z, WITH THE
RAIN STARTING IN KHYS BY 17Z. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR
THEN IFR TODAY, AND THEN EVENTUALLY LIFR AFTER A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTH BY 02-04Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  58  43  58  42 / 100  90  10  10
GCK  54  43  57  41 / 100  90  10  10
EHA  57  43  59  44 / 100  50  10  10
LBL  57  43  59  44 / 100  70  10  10
HYS  53  42  56  41 /  90  90  30  10
P28  63  52  62  46 /  90  90  20  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...FINCH



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