Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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218
FXUS63 KDDC 270653
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
153 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

...Updated long term section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 107 AM CDT Fri May 27 2016

An upper level low will slide into the Central High Plains today
then into the remainder of the Central Plains tonight. This will
allow an area of low pressure at the surface to continue to deepen
across southwest Kansas today then shift into central and eastern
Kansas this evening into the overnight period tonight. An
association warm front will extend east to northeast from this
area of low pressure with a cold front extending to the south.
Winds north of the warm front will generally be from the east to
southeast with winds from the southeast south of this front. Winds
behind the cold front will generally curl from the southwest to
northwest as the day progresses. Another round of strong to severe
thunderstorms will be possible across central and south central
Kansas during the late afternoon into evening. Damaging wind and
large hail will be the main concern but an isolated tornado can
not be ruled out. Additional storms also look to form across
eastern Colorado and far western Kansas in the late afternoon but
are not expected to become severe. These storms slide eastward as
the evening and early overnight period progresses. Any storms that
develop should move out of western Kansas by midnight then move
out of the area by day break Saturday morning. Skies look to be
partly cloudy today becoming mostly cloudy this evening into the
early overnight hours. Cloudiness then decreases from west to east
overnight. As for temperatures, highs today look to range from the
lower 70s across west central Kansas to lower 80s across south
central Kansas. Lows tonight are expected to range from the upper
40s across the KS/CO border to upper 50s across south central
Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 152 AM CDT Fri May 27 2016

The upper level low will move northeast out of the area Saturday
with westerly downslope flow developing across the Central
Rockies. This will result in lee troughing to developing at the
surface across eastern Colorado by the afternoon. This feature
will allow northwest winds during the day to shift to the south to
southeast Saturday night. No precipitation is expected Saturday
into Saturday night with decreasing cloudiness during the day and
partly cloudy skies overnight. This will be short lived as the
next upper level disturbance moves into the area Sunday increasing
cloudiness with a chance of storms in the afternoon into the
evening hours. The chance of thunderstorms continue into the early
part of next week as a series of upper level disturbances move
into the area. In addition, a persistent southeast flow at the
surface is expected to continue into early next week which will
keep advecting some low level moisture back into western Kansas.
This will not only favor improving chances for thunderstorms next
week but also the lows early next week are expected to be
unseasonably warm. Drier conditions are then expected during the
middle to late part of next week as an upper level ridge builds
across the western United States. However, there still could be a
few isolated thunderstorms during peak heating each afternoon. As
for temperatures, highs Saturday and Sunday look to top out in the
lower 80s then fall to around 80 degrees early next week. Lows
look to only dip into the upper 50s to around 60 degrees through
the early part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Fri May 27 2016

An area of low pressure with associated warm and cold fronts will
be found across western Kansas this morning. This will lead to
easterly winds at the HYS terminal and northwesterly winds at
the GCK terminal. Wind direction at DDC will be difficult to
predict due to the location of the aforementioned features. I
have placed a northwesterly wind direction in the TAFs for now
but may need to be changed if the boundary slides back west. VFR
conditions will prevail across DDC and GCK terminals overnight
with decreasing cloudiness. The KHYS terminal will remain at VFR
until a few hours before sunrise when low stratus or patchy fog
may form causing MVFR conditions. Any fog that does form should
burn off within a few hours of sunrise.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  57  79  53  82 /  20  30  40  10
GCK  53  75  51  83 /  20  40  40  10
EHA  50  74  51  83 /  10  30  20  10
LBL  52  78  53  83 /  10  30  20  10
HYS  55  78  55  79 /  40  40  40  10
P28  64  82  58  83 /  60  40  40  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Hovorka_42



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