Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 111141
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
541 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

...Updated aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

High pressure sinking south through the plains states will affect
temperatures to the negative side over the next couple of days.
Stratus was advancing across the Missouri valley into central
Nebraska and northern Kansas. The latest HRRR model runs have
continued to advect stratus of around 1000ft bases through the Hays
area and perhaps as far south as Dodge City after 12 UTC.  So
stratus dissipation and local visibilities due to fog may be the
main forecast problems of the morning influencing temperature
trends. Afternoon highs will be not as warm today, however drier dew
points and downslope trajectories should still help temperatures
warm toward 70 in the far west.

.LONG TERM...(Friday THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

Very low precipitation probabilities were included associated with
mainly a freezing drizzle and fog possibility on Friday night into
very early Saturday morning, however, this only glances the
northwest most sections of west central Kansas as the model signal
is focused over the northwest part of the state. A general cooling
trend each day ends by Sunday as the easterly surface wind gets
whipped around from the west once again as a shortwave dives through
the Northern Plains. A short period of weakly cyclonic flow aloft
will continue into the Monday timeframe and pops may need to be
revisited in the coming forecast cycles, but at this point the
confidence is extremely low for precipitation chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Friday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 541 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

IFR stratus is currently spreading south toward central Kansas. It
should be moving into the Hays area shortly after the beginning of
this TAF issuance. The stratus should impact operations through the
morning hours but should erode east of the area by midday. Do not see
the stratus moving too much more to the southwest so Garden City and
Dodge City should remain VFR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  57  31  51  22 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  61  29  53  24 /   0   0   0  10
EHA  66  33  59  29 /   0   0   0  10
LBL  62  31  58  26 /   0   0   0  10
HYS  49  30  42  20 /   0   0   0  20
P28  54  32  52  22 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Gerard


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