Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 020530
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1230 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

...Updated Short Term...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Mon May 2 2016

Cloud canopy across SW Kansas will gradually erode through the
morning hours, as weak shortwave moves east. Atmosphere dries out
substantially on Monday, allowing for much more sunshine.
Afternoon temperatures will recover nicely from Sunday`s
unseasonably cold readings, into the lower 60s, but this is still
about 10 degrees below normal for early May. Still a much more
pleasant day for Monday, given NW winds much more behaved at only
10-20 mph.

A mostly clear sky overnight will allow radiational cooling to
send temperatures below normal again, with lows at sunrise Tuesday
morning ranging from the upper 30s to the lower 40s. Some increase
in cloud cover towards dawn Tuesday, as a weak shortwave
approaches from the north.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016

An upper level lobe of energy will move southward across the
Northern Plains and into the Central Plains Monday night into
Tuesday. The only way this will affect the weather pattern at the
surface is to push the dome of high pressure south into the
Southern Plains. Cloud cover will continue to decrease during this
time frame with winds shifting to more of a northwest direction.
An upper level ridge will then build above the Rockies Tuesday
night through Thursday then shift eastward into the Plains
Thursday night into Friday. No significant weather is expected
during this time frame with mostly clear skies and dry conditions.
Meanwhile, a large upper level low is progged to move into the
Western United States Thursday and Friday then over the Four
Corners this weekend. Mid to upper level cloudiness will increase
as this feature approaches with winds shifting to the south.
Precipitation chances increase across the area this weekend with a
few storms possibly becoming severe Saturday afternoon and again
Sunday afternoon. Confidence is still low on the timing and
position of this system so future runs will be looked at closely.
A warming trend is expected through Friday with highs reaching
into the upper 70s to around 80 degrees by Friday. Lows look to
start out around 40 degrees Monday night then slowly rise into the
low to mid 50s by this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Mon May 2 2016

Scattered -SHRA near DDC will end over the next few hours. Much
improved flying weather on Monday, with VFR expected. Decreasing
clouds through 12z, followed by only scattered clouds or SKC
Monday afternoon. After 15z Monday, NW surface winds of 10-20 kts,
with winds going light and variable around 00z Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  38  62  40  69 /  30  10  10  10
GCK  38  62  39  69 /  20  10  10   0
EHA  37  60  38  69 /  60  10  10  10
LBL  39  62  37  70 /  60  10  10  10
HYS  39  63  40  70 /  20  10  10   0
P28  42  65  42  72 /  50  10  10  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Turner



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