Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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946
FXUS63 KDDC 271700
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1200 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

...Updated Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Short term concern is the evolution of fog this morning. Meso models
like the RAP, HRRR, ARW, NMMB are in good agreement of the possibility
of dense fog developing across a portion of the forecast district.
The winds as of early morning are downslope, which is not favorable
for fog. Will watch obs and will adjust as necessary.

Otherwise, for today, we will see warmer temperatures on average. High
pressure will ridge over the area with weak warm air advection developing
through the day. The warmest temperatures are forecast across far SW
Kan, where values of around 70F are expected. To the northeast by Hays,
Kan, mid 60s are in the forecast. No precipitation is expected today.
Overnight lows heading into Tuesday morning will be relatively mild
- 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Attention the turns to Tuesday through Thursday. A large trof will approach
the region during this period. Considerable moisture advection is expected
with PWATs increasing to around 1". Keep in mind this is well above
the 90th percentile for March PWAT climo. The forecast values actually
above the max. The bottom line is there will be considerable moisture
to work with and a heavy rain event still appears likely. There will
be strong WAA induced precipitation ahead of the synoptic wave and
very strong isentropic lift in its wake. The EC is still cranking out
1-2" area wide by Thursday evening. Tuesday and Wednesday have temperature
bust potential as it probably will be cooler than what is currently
forecast with all the rain and cloud cover. Severe weather doesn`t
appear that likely as SW Kan will be on the cold side of the synoptic
wave. There could be thunder though, however, widespread stratiform
rain looks to be more likely. The forecast will dry out Thursday and
into Friday with 500-hPa shortwave ridging expected over the forecast
domain. Another synoptic system is still forecast by the EC for late
Saturday and into Sunday. This second storm will still bring precip
with it, however, lighter amounts are possible as PWATs are not forecast
as high as with the first dynamic system. The EC has been remarkably
consistent over the last several nights bringing in much needed beneficial
rains to SW Kan.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Broken stratus and stratocumulus will continue to erode east of
DDC and near HYS this afternoon. Several hours of good flying
weather expected at the airports through this evening, with VFR
expected to hold through about 06z Tuesday. High confidence that
flight categories will degrade to IFR/LIFR after 06z, as strong
moisture advection begins ahead of dynamic closed low in NE
Arizona. Stratus will envelope all of SW KS by 12z Tue, with areas
of reduced vis in BR/patchy fog as well. SE winds will become
gusty overnight (gusting 20-25 kts) and this is expected to
prevent dense fog formation. LIFR stratus cigs will be the primary
aviation impact. After 15z Tue, widespread -RA is expected, with
IFR vis as well. Only included light rain in the TAFs for now, but
rain will be moderate to heavy at times through Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  43  58  45 /   0  10  90  90
GCK  68  45  52  42 /   0  10  90  90
EHA  70  44  53  39 /   0  10  70  80
LBL  71  46  56  44 /   0  10  90  90
HYS  65  43  58  45 /   0   0  80  90
P28  67  44  60  51 /   0   0  80  90

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Turner



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