Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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000
FXUS63 KDDC 300600
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
100 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

...UPDATED SHORT...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

850-HPA WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS. THIS WILL LEAD TO WAA INDUCED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. EVENTUALLY THE THERMAL FIELDS BEGIN TO BROADEN
WITH WEAKENING WAA. STUCK WITH THE WRF-ARW SOLUTION, WHICH HAS THE HIGHEST
POPS THIS MORNING ALONG AND SOUTH OF AN EAST/WEST LINE BISECTING DODGE
CITY. AGAIN, THERE MIGHT BE A MINIMUM IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON PERIOD. THE NEXT QUESTION IS FOR ADDITIONAL RENEWED
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BEST AREAS WILL BE ALONG
THE COLORADO BORDER IN THE UPSLOPE REGIME AND NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER
WHERE THERE IS SOME WEAK FRONTOGENESIS. HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS IN THIS
AREA, HOWEVER, THE ATMOSPHERE MIGHT BE PRETTY WELL WORKED OVER AT THIS
POINT IN TIME. THUS, DID NOT GET CARRIED AWAY WITH POP VALUES AND LEFT
IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE. FOR TEMPERATURES, BOISE VERIFICATION REVEALS
A POOR VERIFICATION RECORD WITH SEVERAL MODEL CLUSTERS SUFFERING FROM
A HIGH BIAS. WITH ALL THE RECENT RAINS, FEEL THAT MOISTURE FLUXES WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT. AS SUCH, HAVE GONE WITH A MIDDLE TO SLIGHTLY
COOLER SOLUTION WITH WIDESPREAD 80S FOR HIGHS. MINIMUMS HEADING INTO
FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

THE FRONTOGENESIS AND UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK CONFIGURATION WILL
NOT BE AS FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OVER SOUTHWEST
KANSAS BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WILL COMMENCE, WITH HIGHS REACHING CLOSE TO 90 ALONG INTERSTATE 70
BY FRIDAY, WITH UPPER 80S ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MAY REACH THE MID 90S ALONG INTERSTATE 70 BY SUNDAY,
WITH LOWER 90S FARTHER SOUTH. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE LOW TO
MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE, IN THE
PRESENCE OF RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, MAY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

CIGS SHOULD BE VFR THROUGH TAF PD. THERE MIGHT BE SOME WEAK WAA INDUCED
TS FOR KDDC THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO ADD
TS/CB IN THE TAF FOR NOW GIVEN OPERATIONAL FLIGHT IMPACT IS QUESTIONABLE.
WILL WATCH AND AMEND AS NEEDED. KGCK/KHYS SHOULD REMAIN CONVECTION FREE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. EASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY
TODAY AT 5-10 KT MAGNITUDES. CONVECTION TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING LOOKS
TO REMAIN SOUTH OF TERMINALS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  66  89  65  90 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  65  89  64  90 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  63  87  64  88 /  20  30  20  20
LBL  66  88  67  89 /  20  20  20  20
HYS  63  91  66  92 /  10  10  10  10
P28  68  88  69  91 /  20  20  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...SUGDEN



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