Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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000
FXUS63 KDDC 270503
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1103 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 950 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

WV IMAGERY AND 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITIONING EASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST WHILE A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS THE WESTERN
HIGH PLAINS. NEAR THE SURFACE, A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
DRIER AIR REMAINS SETTLED ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS(F) TO THE LOWER 20S(F).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE
EVENING. BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY TURN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AND THEN TO SOUTH BY LATE TONIGHT. MINIMUMS WILL BE IN THE 20S. FOR
TURKEY DAY, LEE TROUGHING WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WITH
RESULTANT 10-25 MPH SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH
THE DAY. WHILE BIRD CARCASSES WARM IN THE OVEN, THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
DO ITS OWN WARMING WITH 10-14C 850-HPA TEMPERATURES ADVECTING ACROSS
THE REGION. EVEN THOUGH RELATIVELY POOR MIXING IS EXPECTED, MIX DOWN
TEMPERATURES STILL SUPPORT NEAR 70F OUT WEST, AROUND 60F CENTRAL, TO
50S EAST. OVERALL, SHOULD BE VERY MILD FOR YOUR TYPICAL THANKSGIVING,
WHICH AVERAGE HIGHS ARE NEAR 50 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THERE ISN`T A WHOLE LOT THAT HAS CHANGED IN THE OVERALL THINKING
REGARDING SENSIBLE WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM (THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK) ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY APPEAR TO
STILL BE ON TRACK FOR VERY MILD WEATHER. THE GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARD
THE ECMWF REGARDING SATURDAY TEMPS, AND WE HAVE BOOSTED THE HIGHS
SATURDAY TO AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE REGION WEST AND SOUTH OF A GARDEN
CITY TO DODGE CITY TO GREENSBURG TO COLDWATER LINE. WITH THE BROAD
LEE TROUGH AXIS GENERALLY OVER THE WESTERN KANSAS REGION BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY, WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK. THE ARCTIC AIR WILL BE
AWAITING, THOUGH, UP NORTH THIS WEEKEND. THE TIMING OF THE ARCTIC
FRONT IS A BIG CHALLENGE, AS IT NOW APPEARS IT MAY HOLD OFF JUST
LONG ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE IN ONE MORE (AT LEAST HALF) DAY OF MILD
TEMPERATURES BEFORE THE OTHER SHOE FALLS. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE
THROUGH LATE MORNING NOW (INSTEAD OF PRE-DAWN LIKE IT WAS THOUGHT
EARLIER), WITH THE ROBUST TEMPERATURE DROP LAGGING BEHIND AN HOUR OR
TWO, SUCH THAT WE WILL NOW LIKELY SEE OUR HIGHS AROUND NOON FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. WHEN THE TEMPERATURE FALLS AFTERNOON SUNDAY, IT WILL BE
ABRUPT ON STRONG NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS.  WE WILL PROBABLY SEE
TEMPERATURES FALL SOME 30 DEGREES OVER THE SPAN OF JUST 3 TO 5
HOURS. THE OFFICIAL HOURLY TEMPERATURE GRIDS FOR SUNDAY WILL TRY TO
REFLECT A NON-DIURNAL CURVE WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING IN THE
AFTERNOON.  MONDAY TEMPERATURES WERE DROPPED ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES
ACROSS THE BOARD, AND THAT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH. IT DOES NOT APPEAR
THERE WILL BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER MONDAY, SO INSOLATION
WILL HELP SOME, OTHERWISE WE WOULD CERTAINLY BE STUCK IN THE MID 20S
ALL DAY.  THIS ARCTIC AIR WILL LIKELY NOT LAST, AS IT WILL BE
SHALLOW, THANKS TO CONTINUED STRONG CROSS-MOUNTAIN MOMENTUM HELPING
RE-ESTABLISH THE LEE TROUGH UP AND DOWN THE HIGH PLAINS. TUESDAY
TEMPERATURES MAY REBOUND BACK TO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50,
ALTHOUGH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME OF THIS (MODIFIED)
AIRMASS BACK INTO SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS MID-WEEK.  THE FORECAST WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD AS THIS FAST, ZONAL PATTERN
DOES NOT FAVOR PRECIPITATION ON THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1102 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY 5
TO 15KT TOWARD DAYBREAK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL THEN
INCREASE UP TO AROUND 15 TO 25KT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
A LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  22  58  33  69 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  22  63  32  69 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  25  69  37  73 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  24  66  32  69 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  21  51  31  66 /   0   0   0   0
P28  24  55  34  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...JJOHNSON


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