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000
FXUS63 KDDC 200507
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1207 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

WV IMAGERY AND 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A CLOSED OFF UPPER
LEVEL LOW OSCILLATING ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA.
MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE BROADER SCALE TROUGH
IS DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN REGION. A NARROW
+70KT UPPER LEVEL JET IS STREAMING EAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO INTO
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. NEAR THE SURFACE, A STRONG AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS SITUATED ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH AN
ELONGATED TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH A SECONDARY LOW IN
EASTERN NEBRASKA, THEN FURTHER SOUTH INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. IR
SATELLITE DEPICTS A VERY SHARP DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR
WICHITA, KS IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO JUST WEST OF ABILENE,
TEXAS. THE DRYLINE IS SLOWLY RETREATING WESTWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH A SECOND PIECE OF ENERGY SWINGING
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE OF THIS LOW AND MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. TOWARDS THE
SURFACE, THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS KANSAS BUT STALL OUT ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. WINDS BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL
GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW.
EVEN WITH THIS DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT OF THE WIND, A FEW SHOWERS OR
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING PEAK HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO AMPLE MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. NONE OF THESES STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE BUT
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE STRONGEST.
OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE OBSERVED THROUGH TOMORROW.
SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS AND
THE KS/CO BORDER TO UPPER 50S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS
TOMORROW ARE ANTICIPATED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND 80 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
ANOTHER BUSY DAY WITH A TORNADO WATCH OUT TIL 10 PM FOR OUR EASTERN
3 MOST COUNTIES.  PROBLEMS WITH GFE ONLY COMPOUNDED THE BUSY DAY.
THE EXTENDED PRETTY MUCH STAYED THE SAME, WITH LIMITED TIME TO
ANALISE THE DATA.  THE 3 EAST COUNTIES OF BARBER,  PRATT AND
STAFFORD WILL LIKELY, IF ANY, HAVE ONLY SEVERE HAIL ON THE SMALL
SIDE.  THE WINDS BY THIS TIME ARE NEARLY STACKED FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.  HOWEVER, SINCE THE CURRENT WATCH WAS LINKED TO AREAS TO
THE EAST, A TORNADO WATCH WAS DECIDED ON.

STEPPING INTO THE EXTENDED, THERE WILL BE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT WILL BE QUICKLY MOVING
NORTH AND THEN TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH. A COLD FRONT WHILE DIP INTO
THE I-70 AREA. LOW END 20 POPS EXIST TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKEENEY
AND HAYS AREA.  A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM AND
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  LOW 20
PERCENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ENTER WESTERN KANSAS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, INCREASE TO 30 TO 50 POPS ON THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH
FROM THE NORTHERN LOW SWEEPS THROUGH DODGE`S AREA.  THAT UPPER
TROUGH WILL BASICALLY KEEP 30 TO 45 PERCENT POPS THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE FAR EASTERN ZONES OF STAFFORD, PRATT AND BARBER COUNTY WILL
STILL HAVE 20 POPS IN FOR SUNDAY.  IF I HAD TO PICK ONE DAY WHEN THE
BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN IS, IT WOULD HAVE TO BE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT.  A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE FROM THE NORTHWEST AND GIVE THE
BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES.  THERE COULD EVEN
BEEN SOME SEVERE STORMS LATE THURSDAY, WITH BOTH THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVING OVERHEAD AND THE SURFACE FRONT SINKING IN, OR BACKING IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST.  TEMPERATURES DID NOT CHANGE MUCH FROM PREVIOUSLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER, VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. AS
FOR WINDS, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN NEBRASKA WILL LIFT
SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO MINNESOTA TODAY. MEANWHILE, A SECONDARY
SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST TEXAS. AS A RESULT, LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK THEN BECOME NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY
WHILE SLOWLY INCREASING UP TO AROUND 10 TO 15KT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  50  77  52  81 /  20  10  10  10
GCK  49  75  50  81 /  20  10  10  10
EHA  49  77  51  84 /  20  10  10   0
LBL  50  79  52  84 /  20  10  10  10
HYS  50  72  51  77 /  20  20  10  10
P28  55  80  55  82 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...JJOHNSON