Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
FXUS63 KDDC 300456
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1156 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016
...Updated aviation section...
Issued at 814 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2016
Based on radar trends in eastern Colorado and the latest HRRR
solutions, increased thunderstorm coverage across the western
zones toward midnight. HRRR has a good handle on storm coverage at
present, and suggests likely coverage mainly west of Garden City.
Per coordination with SPC, strongest risk for damaging winds will
be across Hamilton/Kearny county vicinity toward midnight.
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2016
A wind shift line has moved to between Garden City and Dodge City
this afternoon with some cumulus just south of Dodge City, and
another area of more enhanced cumulus in parts of Barber County.
Forecast soundings are unstable with only a weak cap over the Dodge
City area and 2000 to 3000 J/kg forecast CAPE. There could be an
isolated thunderstorm near the wind shift line and then a slightly
better chance in the Barber County area. If any storm develops it
could go briefly severe with quarter hail and a strong wind gust.
Then later tonight, models show the best chances for rainfall are
mainly north of Dodge City, however with this current northwest flow
pattern, any storms that develop in eastern Colorado and Nebraska
could dive southward into much of the area. Will keep 30 to 50
percent chance going. Severe storms do not look likely with the main
threat of strong outflow winds, small hail, and heavy rainfall with
any storm complex that can develop. It may also be more difficult
for storms to form in far western Kansas this evening and overnight
as 700 mb temps are fairly warm around 15C. Lows tonight will range
from the mid to upper 60s with light southeast winds.
For Thursday, a stronger shortwave in northwest flow aloft is
forecast for the afternoon and evening with an attendant cold front
moving across western Kansas. Will keep fairly high chances for
rainfall going, again with a potential of heavy rainfall. Could also
have a chance of strong to severe storms with stronger wind shear
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2016
For the period of Thursday night into next Wednesday, an ongoing
convective complex of storms may be moving across parts of western
Kansas Thursday night with aggravated northwest flow aloft. For
Friday northwest flow aloft begins to transition to more zonal flow
with more shortwaves forecast into Sunday across the Western High
Plains. Will keep fairly high chances going for rainfall, and areas
of heavy rainfall still look good. After Sunday, rainfall chances
decrease as the main upper jet and any shortwaves move north.
Highs will be cooler and in the 80s into Sunday, but then warm back
into the 90s by mid week next week. Lows will be mainly in the 60s
then warm to around 70 after Monday.
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1151 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2016
Scattered showers are currently moving through far western Kansas
but are expected to stay west of the GCK terminal. I did place
VCTS in the TAFs to account for the close proximity. Otherwise,
VFR conditions will prevail with increasing mid level clouds.
Winds will generally be from the south to southeast at less than
10 knots. A better chance of thunderstorms are possible tomorrow
night, especially around the HYS terminal.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 68 89 65 82 / 30 50 60 50
GCK 66 88 65 83 / 70 50 60 50
EHA 66 91 64 86 / 30 50 60 50
LBL 67 92 66 87 / 40 50 60 50
HYS 67 85 64 81 / 40 40 40 50
P28 70 91 68 84 / 30 50 60 50