Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KDDC 220521
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1221 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

...UPDATED FOR THE AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE
PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE, WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. MID TO HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL SPREAD FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AS WELL. WITH THE RATHER MOIST MID LEVELS, CAPPING WILL BE
VERY WEAK; BUT SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES WILL ONLY BE ABOUT
500-700 J/KG. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN WESTERN
KANSAS AND PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHWESTERN
KANSAS AND INTO CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT THE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION GIVEN
THE LIMITED INSTABILITY; BUT THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK,
WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES IN CENTRAL KANSAS. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL PROBABLY NOT FALL BELOW THE 50S DUE TO THE LOWER 50S
DEWPOINTS AND SOUTH WIND. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD REACH INTO THE
MID TO HIGH 70S DESPITE THE MID LEVEL CLOUD AND POSSIBLE AFTERNOON
SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

PRECIPITATION WILL BE EXITING THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS AN ASSOCIATED SYNOPTIC WAVE MOVES EAST. THAT IS PRETTY MUCH THE LAST
SHOT FOR RAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM DOMAIN.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY TRANQUIL AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE REST OF THE BUSINESS
WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
AND WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE WARMEST DAY IS FORECAST FRIDAY
AS THE RIDGE IS IN THE CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE FORECAST AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED WARM 850-HPA TEMPERATURES - LOW
20CS! LOW TO MID 80S LOW REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.

THE NEXT CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND RESULTANT COOLER TEMPERATURES
IS POSSIBLE NEXT MONDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES
WILL THEN TREND TO NEAR OR PERHAPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL - DEPENDING
ON THE ACTUAL STRENGTH OF THE COLD FRONT. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY
IS FORECAST TO BE LIMITED, SO MODELS AREN`T SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF QPF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THE FLIGHT CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE VFR OVERALL. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT FOG TOWARD SUNRISE, AND THEN A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH AROUND
13-15KTS THIS MORNING, AND SOUTHWEST AT 15G25KT LATER TODAY.
CONVECTION WAS INTRODUCED AFTER 22Z AT GCK, 23Z AT DDC AND 01Z AT
HYS. THESE STORMS DO NOT LOOK TOO STRONG AND SHOULD ONLY REDUCE
CIGS TO BKN030-040.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  53  77  53  84 /  50   0   0   0
GCK  49  77  50  84 /  20   0   0   0
EHA  49  78  51  84 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  52  79  52  84 /  20   0   0   0
HYS  51  73  52  83 /  70   0   0   0
P28  56  79  55  85 /  50   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...BURKE



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.