Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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537
FXUS63 KDDC 130544
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1144 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2017

...Updated aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 324 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2017

The next in the series of northwest flow shortwave troughs was
located across Alberta this afternoon, rounding the top of the
longwave ridge. This will continue to dive southeast tonight and end
up centered across the Siouxland daybreak tomorrow morning. This
track and evolution looks very much like the Monday wave as a
surface low develops and tracks across the Upper Midwest region. We
will see a wind shift from the west tonight to a north-northwest
direction -- along with an increase in speed -- not long after
sunrise. The westerly winds tonight at around 10 to 13 mph will help
keep the boundary layer mixed just enough to prevent temperatures
from dropping much below lower 30s. Just like the Monday system, the
surface cold advection will largely be masked by downslope off the
higher terrain of Wyoming and western Nebraska. As a result, despite
the fairly strong north winds, temperatures will still warm through
the 50s, and topping out in the lower 60s south of the Arkansas
River most likely.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 324 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2017

A stronger north-to-south oriented jet will be pushing into the
Rockies and adjacent plains Thursday, and this will help bring a bit
colder air down into western Kansas along with an increase in some
mid to high level cloud. Highs Monday are expected to be in the 40s
most of the area and any light precipitation tied to this jet will
be confined to Colorado.

The entire ridge out west will be dissolving with a mean west-
northwest flow pattern Friday into the weekend. We will eventually
see the mean ridge axis redevelop back to the west, just off the
west coast of the CONUS. This will result in a mean trough farther
west over the Central CONUS. The entire shape of this trough is
highly unclear with respect to the synoptic/subsynoptic details, as
there will probably be an interaction between a southern stream and
a northern stream disturbance as is hinted by the latest round of
global spectral model solutions. This appears to be the beginning of
an overall shift in the hemispheric regime that could take us away
from the high-index PNA pattern for awhile (colder temperatures and
perhaps a better chance for some moisture?)

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1144 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2017

VFR conditions will persist through this forecast period. Winds
will gradually shift to the northwest through the remainder of
tonight and then increase from the northwest to north Wednesday
morning as a cold front pushes through western Kansas. Wind gusts
into the 30-35 knot range will be possible by late morning into
early afternoon before winds slowly subside.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  33  61  29  48 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  30  59  29  47 /   0   0   0  10
EHA  32  60  30  47 /   0   0  10  10
LBL  30  61  31  48 /   0   0  10  10
HYS  35  58  30  46 /   0   0   0  10
P28  31  64  31  50 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Gerard



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