Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 281924
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
224 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

...Updated short term and long term discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

A surface high will build across western Kansas overnight and
Saturday as an upper level ridge axis crosses the Rockies and
moves out into the Western High Plains. With mostly clear
conditions overnight along with light winds will trend towards
undercutting the cooler guidance by a couple of degrees.

On Saturday the upper ridge axis will cross into the central
plains as a series of upper level disturbances move from the base
of the eastern Pacific trough towards the northern Rockies. The 24
hour change in 900mb to 850mb temperatures between 00z Saturday
and 00z Sunday indicate little if any warm up across far western
Kansas. Also given an east to southeasterly flow Saturday
afternoon around a surface to 850mb high that will be slowly
moving across western Kansas during the day there will be even
some cooling occurring across central Kansas. Using 850mb
temperatures at 00z Sunday as a guide for highs there will be
little if any change in temperatures west of highway 83.
Temperatures further east will be at or a few degrees cooler than
highs today.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday NIGHT THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

A warming trend will begin on Sunday and continue through at
least early next week. Highs will easily climb into the low to mid
90s by Monday. The 850mb to 700mb temperature trends suggest that
the highs will be even warmer than this. Given the mixing depth
potential will favor the warmer temperatures from the 850mb to
700mb temperature for highs on Monday. These warm temperatures
will then continue through the remainder of the work week so will
favor temperature at or slightly warmer than what the latest
CRExtendedFcst_Init suggests. Any chance for precipitation next
week appears to be confined to west central and portions of north
central Kansas given the forecast location of the upper level
ridge and the developing southwesterly flow across the central
Rockies.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Saturday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

A surface high will build across western Kansas overnight and
Saturday as an upper level ridge axis crosses the Rockies and
moves out into the Western High Plains. With mostly clear
conditions overnight along with light winds will trend towards
undercutting the cooler guidance by a couple of degrees.

On Saturday the upper ridge axis will cross into the central
plains as a series of upper level disturbances move from the base
of the eastern Pacific trough towards the northern Rockies. The 24
hour change in 900mb to 850mb temperatures between 00z Saturday
and 00z Sunday indicate little if any warm up across far western
Kansas. Also given an east to southeasterly flow Saturday
afternoon around a surface to 850mb high that will be slowly
moving across western Kansas during the day there will be even
some cooling occurring across central Kansas. Using 850mb
temperatures at 00z Sunday as a guide for highs there will be
little if any change in temperatures west of highway 83.
Temperatures further east will be at or a few degrees cooler than
highs today.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  60  89  61  91 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  59  91  59  92 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  61  90  63  93 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  61  92  62  93 /  10   0   0   0
HYS  61  89  60  92 /   0   0   0   0
P28  65  89  63  91 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert



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