Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 211123
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
623 AM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017

Certainly, of greatest short-term interest in the forecast is cloud
cover for the 85-95% partial solar eclipse at midday. Unfortunately
for eclipse-watchers in southwest Kansas, the cloud forecast has not
changed, and in fact confidence has increased quite a bit that there
will be a near-complete sky obscuration from mid level clouds with
scattered rain showers and thunderstorms around. Afternoon
temperatures will depend greatly on the duration and expanse of
cloud cover as well as the shower/thunderstorm activity. Lowest
temperatures will be in the west with lower 80s for highs, and
around 90 in the Red Hills of Comanche and Barber County.

Better precipitation chances will be later on this evening and
through the nighttime hours east of Highway 283 as a surface front
pushes south and interacts with the deeper moisture and slow-moving
subtropical disturbance. Both the WRF ARW and NMM cores show a very
aggressive convective signal 03-09z along the front, including as
far southwest Ulysses and Garden City. Currently, highest POPs
(Likely) will be east of Dodge City, but these higher POPs may need
to be expanded farther west as confidence increases and the HRRR and
12z runs of the WRF models get a better handle of a difficult-to-
forecast pattern.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017

An upper level ridge will build in across the Rockies mid week with
surface high enveloping the Central Plains. This will lead to a dry
forecast for southwest Kansas through Thursday Night with pleasant
temperatures in the 80s for highs. By Friday, warm advection will
develop in the 900-800mb layer as the flow pattern flattens out.
This will increase our thunderstorm chances. The flow pattern on the
synoptic scale will slowly become northwesterly aloft, which may
enhance our thunderstorm potential given at least a slightly
perturbed flow pattern aloft with semi-daily disturbances moving
across the Central Plains. Timing of these features is highly
uncertain beyond 3 or so days, so expect some fluctuation in the POP
forecast going into the weekend into early next week. Overall, with
mean ridging in the western CONUS and troughing in the east, the
temperatures through the end of this period will likely be at or
slightly below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 619 AM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017

Periods of showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible through
this evening, potentially affecting all TAF sites. Otherwise, VFR conditions
are expected to prevail at all TAF sites through late this evening.
South to southwest winds 10 to 20kt will persist across western Kansas
through tonight as a surface low remains anchored across eastern Colorado.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  90  67  86  60 /  40  50  20  10
GCK  87  66  84  59 /  40  40  20   0
EHA  86  65  83  61 /  40  20  20  10
LBL  88  67  85  61 /  40  30  20  10
HYS  88  66  84  58 /  50  50  10   0
P28  94  71  87  62 /  30  50  30  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...JJohnson



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