Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
836
FXUS63 KARX 022121
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
321 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

THE BAND OF HEAVY SNOW CONTINUES TO MAKE NORTHWARD PROGRESS ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH WHILE THE SECONDARY DEFORMATION BAND TAKES
SHAPE FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE 02.12Z
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF SHOWING A FRONTOGENESIS BAND
SETTING UP IN THIS REGION ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE SURFACE
LOW AND SHOWING THIS TO BE ON THE WEAK SIDE. SO WHILE IT WILL
CONTINUE TO SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT IN THIS DEFORMATION
AREA...ACCUMULATIONS UNDER THIS MAY ONLY BE A COUPLE OF INCHES AT
BEST.

FARTHER TO THE EAST OVER NORTHEAST IOWA INTO CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...THE CONCERN STILL REMAINS WHETHER THERE WILL BE A LOSS
OF ICE IN THE DRY SLOT. THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THERE SHOULD
BE A TOTAL LOSS OF ICE OVER THIS AREA BUT CONCERNED THIS MAY NOT
BE OCCURRING. CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES FROM SATELLITE DATA INDICATE
ICE IS STILL IN THE CLOUDS DOWN TO ABOUT CENTRAL IOWA AND THEN
THERE LOOKS TO A LOSS OF ICE. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS
LOSS OF ICE COMING INTO THE SOUTHEAST SECTIONS FOR A CHANGE OVER
TO SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FREEZING RAIN. THIS COULD PRODUCE SOME
ICING WITH A GLAZE OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.

AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES PAST THE AREA...THE WINDS WILL TURN MORE
TO THE NORTHWEST AND THEN START TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP. WIND GUSTS OVERNIGHT FROM
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN
SHOULD GET BACK INTO THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE TO PRODUCE SOME
BLOWING SNOW. JUST HOW MUCH BLOWING SNOW OCCURS COULD BE IMPACTED
ON WHETHER THE FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN OCCURS AND PUTS A HARD
COATING ON TOP OF THE SNOW.

THE 02.12Z MODEL DATA ALSO CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL BECOME AN OPEN WAVE OVERNIGHT WITH THE TAIL END OF THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMING ACROSS LATE TONIGHT. THIS FORCING LOOKS
TO BE ENOUGH AS ICE ALOFT COMES BACK INTO THE AREA TO PRODUCE A
SMALLER AREA OF ENHANCED SNOW ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA INTO SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOOKING TO GET
ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW FROM THIS SECONDARY PUSH.

BASED ON ALL THIS...THE ONLY PLANNED CHANGE TO THE CURRENT
HEADLINES TO TAKE THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE AREA AND DOWNGRADE
THE WARNING TO AN ADVISORY.

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHWEST BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND
STILL LOOKING AT ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO COME DOWN OUT
OF CANADA AND MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE MOISTURE WILL NOT
HAVE MUCH OF A CHANCE TO RECOVER AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SO ONLY
EXPECTING A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM. THE MODELS HAVE
BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING A BIT MORE LIGHT SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND ALSO BRINGING IT A BIT FARTHER SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THIS NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DROP ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WAVE LOOKS TO BE A
LITTLE BIT STRONGER THAN THE THURSDAY WAVE...BUT AGAIN THERE WILL
BE VERY LIMITED TIME FOR ANY MOISTURE RETURN TO OCCUR. AS A
RESULT...NOT EXPECTING THIS WAVE TO BE ABLE TO PRODUCE MUCH SNOW
EITHER AND WILL HAVE SOME 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCES FOR MOST OF THE
AREA. THE PARADE OF NORTHWEST FLOW SYSTEMS WILL THEN CONTINUE WITH
YET ANOTHER ONE COMING IN FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AT THIS
POINT...THIS LOOKS TO BE THE STRONGEST OF THESE NORTHWEST FLOW
SYSTEMS AND WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THE AREA. WILL CARRY SOME 20 TO 40 PERCENT SNOW CHANCES
FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES CENTERED ON
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

WITH HEAVY SNOW AXIS WORKING THROUGH THE AREA CURRENTLY...BOTH
KRST/KLSE REPORTING BELOW 1/4SM THIS PAST HOUR.

EXPECT KRST TO REMAIN IN MODERATE/HEAVY SNOW BAND FOR THE REST OF
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...SLOWLY TAPERING OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT.
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTH AND REMAIN QUITE
STRONG FROM 06Z ON FOR SOME BLOWING SNOW AS WELL. RIGHT
NOW...LOOKS LIKE 10-12 INCHES TOTAL SNOWFALL FOR THE AIRPORT
BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY 12Z. OTHERWISE...PLAN ON LIFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT AROUND 14Z INTO IFR.

FOR KLSE...LOOKS LIKE WORST OF THE HEAVY/ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL
WORK NORTH OF THE AREA BY 22Z...PERHAPS TRANSITIONING OVER TO A
MIX OF FZDZ/-SN THROUGH MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY SNOW AGAIN
AFTER 08Z. LOOK FOR THE SNOW TO TAPER OFF AFTER 12Z.
OTHERWISE...PLAN ON LIFR CONDITIONS...IMPROVING TO IFR AFTER
22Z...REMAINING THERE THROUGH 18Z WED.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ017-029-
     032>034-041>044-053.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ054-055-
     061.

MN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ079-086>088-
     094>096.

IA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR IAZ008>010-018-
     019.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR IAZ011-029-
     030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...DAS



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.