Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 081746
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1146 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 208 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2017

Main forecast concerns in the short term are on snow accumulations
late this afternoon through this evening.

Currently watching a weak band of flurries and at times very light
snow stretching from southeast Minnesota eastward through central
Wisconsin drifting south. The visibility has dropped into the 3
to 5 mile range as the light snow moves through at a couple of
sites over central Wisconsin. Thinking there may be a dusting to
perhaps a hundredth of an inch of snow accumulation with this
band. The band will continue to drift south across the area
through around mid morning before weakening. Occasional flurries
are then possible today as stratus overspreads the region. A fast
moving shortwave trough pushes through the region late this
afternoon into this evening bringing a quick shot of light snow to
the area. Most the accumulations will be along and east of the
Mississippi River where 1 to 2 inches of snow is possible. There
is the possibility for 2.5 to perhaps 3 inches over portions of
central Wisconsin. Overall forecast models have trended a little
less with snow accumulation with the 00Z model runs. Areas north
of interstate 94 could see the accumulating snow start during the
evening commute. Further to the west, expect to see a few
hundredths to perhaps an inch of snow over portions of northeast
Iowa and southeast Minnesota.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 208 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2017

Main forecast concerns in the long term are on snow chances
Sunday night into Monday and the potential for strong northwest
winds during the day on Monday.

A colder airmass settles over the region on Saturday with highs
struggling to make it out of the 20s. Persistent northerly winds
will drive wind chill values into the single digits for most of the
day. Temperatures then warm a bit for Sunday into Monday as low
pressure tracks from southern Manitoba into the Upper Mississippi
River Valley. There is the potential for measurable snowfall with
this system Sunday night into Monday morning but confidence is
low on the placement of the snow. A model consensus places
accumulating snow mainly over northern Wisconsin, but will have
to keep a close eye on this. A rather chilly airmass moves in for
Monday night into Tuesday in the wake of the low. Lows Monday
night will fall into the single digits to teens with wind chill
values in the single digits below zero. The cool northwest flow
will continue across the region right on through the end of next
week. There will be more opportunities for light snow mainly
Wednesday into Thursday night. No stronger systems are on the
horizon at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1146 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2017

Once MVFR stratocumulus dissipates at KLSE, expect VFR conditions
at both TAF sites for the rest of the afternoon with light
westerly winds. For later this evening, a clipper system will drop
south across the region, bringing a quick shot of snow. Expect
visibility restrictions in the 1-3 SM range. Ceilings will also
drop into the MVFR range, but some IFR conditions are also
possible, especially at KRST. Snow is likely to only last for 2-3
hours, followed by flurries and a wind shift to the northwest,
gusting at times into the lower 20 kt range. Still some timing
uncertainty, but cloud bases should rise back above 3000 ft agl
later tonight with a continuation of breezy northwest wind
through the rest of the period.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wetenkamp
LONG TERM...Wetenkamp
AVIATION...Rogers


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