Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 141130

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
530 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 229 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2018

Southwest surface flow in place across the area early this morning
under mostly clear skies. This flow was keeping temperatures in the
teens and 20s as of 2 am.

Southwest flow continues today under mostly sunny skies as 925mb
temperatures warm into the +1 to +9C range. Despite snowpack, we
should see highs today in the upper 30s to the middle 40s. So, some
snowmelt expected today. This snowmelt will load the lower boundary
layer with moisture, and is expected to lead to some fog development
tonight, mainly along and south of I-90. Look for lows in the middle
and upper 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 229 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2018

Thursday will see a cold front dropping into the area while a weak
wave of low pressure ripples northeast through IL. Our area looks to
remain mostly dry between these two systems despite mostly cloudy
skies. Cannot rule out a few rain or snow showers brushing portions
of southeast MN into northern WI, so carried small-end precipitation
chances there. Otherwise, plan on highs topping off in the middle
30s to near 40 degrees. Small-end rain/snow chances continue
Thursday evening as a weak mid-level trough moves through. Then look
for clearing skies and cold air advection through the remainder of
the night with lows dropping into the single digits and teens.

High pressure will provide dry and chilly conditions Friday and
Friday night with highs expected to be in the teens and lower 20s,
and lows in the single digits above zero.

A cold front rolls through the area Saturday for a chance of snow
with highs topping off in the middle 20s to the lower 30s.

Looks a bit more active for Sunday through Tuesday as several lows
eject out of the Rockies into the Upper Midwest. Predictability on
exact temperature profiles and resulting precipitation types with
these systems is rather low at this point. We should be prepared for
a wintry mix as highs will be in the 20s and 30s with lows in the
single digits to lower 20s.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 530 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2018

The main concern through tonight will be whether the moisture
from the snowmelt will be enough to allow fog to form overnight.
With some snowmelt Tuesday, pockets of fog have formed and this
could bring a short period of MVFR visibility to KRST early this
morning. With additional snowmelt occurring today, expecting
there will be more fog that will form tonight. Confidence not
extremely high on the placement or timing and for now, will bring
in some MVFR visibility reductions to KRST for late tonight.




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