Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 161700
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1155 AM CDT Thu Mar 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 356 AM CDT Thu Mar 16 2017

Complex incoming weather system. Resulting short term concern will
be some light snow accumulations/wintry mix tonight mainly north of
I-94.

Early morning water vapor/upper air analysis showing a trough/wave
of low pressure moving across western MT/ID. Already getting some
warm air advection cloud from this system west of the Mississippi
River. Otherwise, temperatures early on this morning are chilly,
ranging from the single digits to teens above zero.

We will continue to see increasing cloud cover today with a slight
chance of light rain this afternoon as warm air advection/isentropic
upglide increases ahead of this wave of low pressure moving into the
Northern Plains. Look fro highs today closer to normal in the upper
30s/lower 40s.

Tonight gets tricky as the wave of low pressure presses on through
the area. NAM model sounding shows mostly light snow across north
central WI going into this evening with a dusting to an inch then
transitioning to a wintry mix as we warm aloft and lose ice in the
cloud. Could get a bit slick on the roads north of I-94 with this
wintry mix along with the light snow accumulation expected across
Clark/Taylor counties. Headlines may be needed but will have the
dayshift assess further for the need.

Could be some lingering drizzle Friday morning as the trough of low
pressure pulls off to the east. By Friday afternoon into the
evening, could see a few showers across north central WI as colder
cyclonic flow produce steep low level lapse rates. Otherwise, milder
temperatures will be seen as highs top off in the 40s, and perhaps a
few lower 50s across far southwest WI.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 356 AM CDT Thu Mar 16 2017

Dry/milder conditions on tap for the weekend as a highly amplified
ridge of high pressure builds over the region. Plan on highs
Saturday in the upper 30s to the middle 40s and in the mid 40s to
middle 50s Sunday.

Rain chances return Sunday night as a cold front makes passage
through the area. Not mich chance in temperatures behind this weak
cold front with highs Monday expected to top off in the middle 40s
to lower 50s.

A bit of a cool down for Wednesday as flow aloft turns more
northwesterly. There will also be a slight chance of rain later
Wednesday west of the Mississippi River ahead of low pressure moving
into the Northern Plains. Otherwise...look for highs in the middle
30s to lower 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1155 AM CDT Thu Mar 16 2017

Cigs: increasing high/mid level clouds ahead of an upper level
shortwave/sfc warm front. Increasing low level moisture should
result in a lowering cloud deck this evening, ahead of an
approaching cold front. IFR/MVFR looks likely for the better part of
tonight into Fri morning. Then see an opportunity to break out of
the low cigs post a cold front Fri morning, but lower cigs quickly
return Fri afternoon as low pressure sweeps southeast across the
eastern Great Lakes.

WX/vsby: warm air advection and some north-south running
frontogenetic lift should result in areas of light showers (mainly
rain) later this evening through the overnight. Higher threat across
western WI, and will add some mention to KLSE as a result. Not
expecting much accumulation. Models favoring some mvfr vsbys and
seems reasonable with melting snowpack, shower threat.

Winds: southeast-south then going west with the passage of a cold
front Friday morning. Looks fairly breezy later in the day Friday as
the pressure gradient tightens up.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...Rieck



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