Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 171127

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
527 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 220 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

Welcome to April!

Models are, and have been, in solid agreement on a significant warm
up for the region this weekend. All build an upper level ridge
across the region today, shifting it east tonight as a shortwave
slips across southern Canada, with more ridge building then for
Sunday. 850 mb temps progged to jump from around +5 C at 00z last
night, to +15 C by 00z Sat. A slight cool down Sat but right back to
around 7-8 C Sun. NAEFS 850 mb temp anomalies close to +3 for today
and sits from +1 to +2 Sat/Sun. 925 mb move from +2 C to +14 C
today. Lots of warm air a loft - can we tap into it? Bufkit
soundings still have February and snow cover on their mind, and keep
a strong sfc inversion in place all day today, weakening somewhat
through the weekend. Doesn/t seem reasonable given the lack of snow
cover now across the local area. A lot more sun today compared to
Thursday, with mostly sunny conditions favored for the rest of the
weekend. So how will this play out for out temperatures? Source
region isn`t that far away with low-mid 60s across central Iowa
Thursday. Won`t push it that far, but a few locations have a good
shot of breaking 60 today and Sunday. Near record to potentially
record heat.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 220 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

Models in pretty good agreement with sliding an upper level west
coast trough eastward to across the Upper Mississippi River Valley
by 06z or so Tue. Some hints that it could link up with what
eventually becomes a cutoff low in the southern flow - but whether
or not it would doesn/t appear to have a big impact on the resulting
sensible weather for the local area. A decent fetch of 850 mb
moisture transport leads the system into the region, along with some
low level warming. Frontogenetic forcing fairly meager at this time
and limited/if any instability indicated. Plenty of saturation per
bufkit soundings/rh fields. Expectations would be for a band of
showers to move through Mon/Mon night - and with temps so warm, it
would fall as liquid. Don`t see a thunder threat at this time.

No end to the unseasonably warm conditions as broad ridging is
progged to move right back in post the quickly moving trough. While
not looking as warm as this weekend, highs 10 to 20 degrees above
the mid Feb normals are anticipated.

The GFS and EC point to a cool down for the following weekend with a
storm system slated to drive across the region.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 527 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

Good VFR conditions expected today/tonight as generally dry and warm
SW to W flow spread across the region. Biggest concern this period
will be winds this afternoon and evening.  A very strong but shallow
inversion will be over the area this afternoon. Winds in the 925mb
range (above the expected inversion height) are progged in the 20-
25kt range. Depending on how deep warming/mixing occurs this
afternoon, some of these winds could mix to the sfc at site like
KRST. WIth highs expected to approach/exceed 60F, quite possible to
mix to 925mb this afternoon and did add some wind gusts to KRST 18-
23z today.  This evening as a sfc cold front and a mid level trough
axis approach, 9256mb winds swing SW to NW and increase into the
35kt range. With light what should be S/SW winds in the MS river
valley this evening, did add LLWS mention to KLSE this evening to
alert those on approach or climb-out to the shifting/increasing
winds in the bottom 2K ft.


Issued at 321 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

Temperatures will be some 20 to 30 degrees above normal Friday
through Monday.

Here are some record highs and record high lows for La Crosse and
Rochester for Friday February the through Monday February the the:

                          Record Highs

             La Crosse                     Rochester
            -----------                   -----------

Fri (17th)    64/1981        Fri (17th)     63/1981
Sat (18th)    64/1981        Sat (18th)     60/1981
Sun (19th)    59/1930        Sun (19th)     59/1930
Mon (20th)    61/1930        Mon (20th)     60/1930

                         Record High Lows

Fri (17th)    41/1981        Fri (17th)     35/1981
Sat (18th)    38/1981        Sat (18th)     37/1954
Sun (19th)    38/2002        Sun (19th)     36/2002
Mon (20th)    41/1930        Mon (20th)     34/1954




LONG TERM....Rieck
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