Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KDMX 030954
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
354 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016

BLIZZARD CONDITIONS DIMINISHING BUT STILL ANTICIPATING BLOWING
SNOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA. THE ENHANCED MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW BAND IS
QUICKLY FALLING APART ACROSS THE EAST...BUT EXPECT ANOTHER INCH
POSSIBLE PRIOR TO 12Z OVER THE EAST. VISIBILITY WITHIN THE BAND
HAS BEEN LESS THAN A HALF MILE AT TIMES...SO KEPT HEADLINES GOING
THROUGH THE EXPIRATIONS TIME OF 12Z. HRRR HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON
THIS SNOW BAND MOVING EAST. THE BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS COMBINED
WITH THE HEAVY SNOW PACK OVER CENTRAL TO NORTHERN IOWA WILL
CONTINUE TO CAUSE SOME SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW CONCERNS THROUGH
18Z BEFORE WINDS SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON. KEPT SNOW
CHANCES GOING ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AS
SOUNDINGS COOL AND REMAIN SATURATED WITHIN THE DENDRITIC LAYER. SO
LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES LIKELY TO CONTINUE...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY
ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. OBVIOUSLY ANY ADDITIONAL
FALLING SNOW WITH THE CURRENT SNOW PACK AND WINDS...VISIBILITY
CONCERNS AND TRAVEL CONDITIONS REMAIN HAZARDOUS. THIS IS LIKELY TO
BE HANDLED WITH A WINTER WX ADVISORY ONCE THE WARNINGS EXPIRE AT
12Z THIS MORNING.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016

LONGER TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH MEAN
EASTERN TROF AND RIDGING ACROSS THE WEST. THROUGH THE END OF THIS
WORK WEEK...A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL DROP THROUGH THE
UPPER MIDWEST PROVIDING THE BEST THREAT OF ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER.
AS FOR TONIGHT IN IOWA...WEAK WARM ADVECTION WILL BE UNDERWAY AS
THERMAL TROF PUSHES EAST OF THE STATE. THIS IS ALSO IN ADVANCE OF
THE FIRST SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE MIDWEST ON THURSDAY. THE
BULK OF FORCING WITH THIS WAVE WILL REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF IOWA
AND MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE LIMITED. AT MOST...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
LATE TONIGHT AND LINGER ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST INTO THURSDAY
BUT THE PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL. THE NEXT WAVE TO
AFFECT THE STATE WILL TOP THE WESTERN RIDGE AND APPROACH LATER
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. FORCING WILL BE A BIT MORE ROBUST
ACROSS IOWA WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT OVERALL MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED.
THEREFORE...ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PCPN IN NORTHERN IOWA ARE
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES...OVERALL PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY MORE WITH
WESTERN RIDGE STRENGTHENING ALLOWING EASTERN TROF TO DEEPEN.
ENERGY WILL DROP DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THIS DEEPENING TROF DRAGGING
ARCTIC AIR FROM CANADA SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL US BY THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. MUCH COLDER AIR IS ANTICIPATED BY MONDAY
ALONG WITH SOME THREAT OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY WITH
SURFACE READINGS APPROACHING DENDRITIC GROWTH VALUES. TEMPERATURES
MAY REMAIN SOMEWHAT TRANSITIONAL INTO NEXT WEEK WITH BAROCLINIC
ZONE SHIFTING BACK AND FORTH THROUGH THE MID AND LOWER MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY DURING THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...03/06Z
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT BETWEEN THE
FOG...LOW CEILINGS...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY AS THE SNOW MOVES OUT AND WINDS SLOWLY
SUBSIDE. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXTENT TO WHICH CIGS MAY
CLEAR OUT/RISE ON WEDNESDAY...AND BELIEVE AT LEAST MVFR CIGS WILL
PROBABLY PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ADAIR-ADAMS-BLACK HAWK-CASS-CLARKE-GRUNDY-JASPER-MADISON-
MARSHALL-POLK-TAMA-UNION-WARREN.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
AUDUBON-BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-DALLAS-GUTHRIE-HARDIN-STORY.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR CALHOUN-
CARROLL-CERRO GORDO-CRAWFORD-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GREENE-HAMILTON-
HANCOCK-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-SAC-WEBSTER-
WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...LEE


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.