000
FXUS63 KDMX 060922
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
322 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014

SFC RIDGE AXIS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF THE
AREA BY MID-MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND THE
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO IMPACT THE AREA FRIDAY. WITH THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS...WAA AND MOISTURE ADVECTION
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH H85 TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND +5C.
CURRENTLY HAVE LOW STRATUS SHIELD SITUATED ACROSS THE CWA STRETCHING
OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST...WITH THE WAA AND MOISTURE ADVECTION EXPECT
THIS LOW CLOUD SHIELD TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
WITH SOME POSSIBLE EROSION ACROSS THE SOUTH TOWARD THE AFTERNOON.
THE CLOUDS WILL LIMIT WARMING...BUT DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER WAA
STRONG ENOUGH SHOULD STILL SEE TEMPS PUSH INTO THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S ACROSS THE CWA.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014

MAIN CONCERNS FOR WINTRY WEATHER WILL BE EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS
CANADIAN COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND SOUTH OF
THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY. WARM AIR STILL EXPECTED TO STREAM NORTHEAST
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS INCREASING OVERNIGHT. AS FRONT
ENTERS NORTHWEST IOWA...SATURATION WILL SLOWLY OCCUR WITH MIX OF
-FZDZ AND -DZ. WITH SATURATION INCREASING MIXTURE WILL GIVE WAY
TO LIQUID SOUTH AND TRANSITION DURING THE AFTERNOON NORTH BACK TO
SNOW. OVERALL MOST MODELS SHOW SYSTEM LACKING SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
SO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE. AT THIS TIME
ANY LIGHT FZDZ SHOULD RESULT IN LITTLE ICE ACCUMULATION. A MIX OF
IP AND -RA WILL THEN CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT SNOW. HAVE LEANED
TOWARD A BLEND OF THE EURO/GFS/GEM SOLUTION FOR THE EVENT. NAM ON
THE OTHER HAND IS MUCH MORE ADAMANT REGARDING THE FORCING AT
H850-H700 AND ENDS UP DUMPING OUT BANDED QPF OVER THE CENTRAL
FORECAST AREA. MOST OF THIS ARRIVES BETWEEN 00 AND 06Z AND ENDS UP
AS SNOW. FOR NOW WILL PASS ALONG INFO TO NEXT SHIFT BUT REMAIN
WITH WEAKER SOLUTIONS WITH THIS PACKAGE. NAM WAS THE LEADING
INDICATOR IN HEAVY SNOWFALL EVENT OVER NORTHERN IOWA AND SOUTHERN
MN THIS PAST TUESDAY NIGHT...SO WILL TO CONSIDER IF TRENDS CONTINUE.

AS PER PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...SATURDAY LOOKS COOLER WITH CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE DRIVING SOUTH INTO THE AREA. STRATUS MAY LINGER IN THE
MORNING BUT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SHOULD HELP DIMINISH CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE DAY AS STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. A WELL ADVERTISED WARM UP CONTINUES TO BE IN
THE OFFING FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TONIGHTS SUBJECTIVE H850 ANALYSIS
SHOWS SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER TEMPS JUST WEST OF THE ROCKIES WITH A
LARGE POCKET OF 2O-25C ACROSS THE SW TO CENTRAL WYOMING. WITH THE
WESTERLY FLOW INCREASING BY LATE WEEKEND THIS AIR HAS NO CHOICE BUT
TO MOVE EAST WITH TIME.  BY SUNDAY H850 TEMPS ALREADY WARMING TO 8C-
12C ACROSS IOWA WITH A WELL DEFINED INVERSION AT 925 TO 850MB.
MONDAY LOOKS SIMILAR BUT IN BOTH CASES...LOW LEVEL SFC WINDS WILL
PROBABLY STILL RESULT IN RATHER NICE AFTERNOON HIGHS SIMPLY DUE TO
SFC ADVECTION FROM NEBRASKA/KANSAS INTO IOWA. THE ONE CONCERN WILL
BE OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST WHICH HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING SOME
STRATUS OR POSSIBLE FOG INTO MN AND WI. OVERALL RAISED TMAX FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY TO THE UPPER 30S NORTHEAST TO NEAR 50 WEST SUNDAY
AND TO THE LOWER 40S EAST MONDAY TO THE UPPER 50S WEST. MELTING WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT SO MONDAY WILL HAVE AN EARLY START
TO A VERY MILD DAY. MODELS AGAIN DIVERGE IN SOLUTIONS FOR
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY AS GFS/GEM/EURO ALL OFFER DIFFERING SOLUTIONS FOR
THE EARLY/MIDWEEK SYSTEM CROSSING THE PLAINS. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
BLENDED SOLUTION FOR NOW...BUT EXPECTING MODIFICATIONS MOVING
FORWARD AS HAS CONTINUED THE THEME FOR THIS WINTER.

&&

.AVIATION...06/06Z
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014

LOW CLOUD DECK CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE AREA HOWEVER MVFR/IFR
CIGS HAVE HELD ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN IA WITH CIGS BARELY VFR
AT THE TERMINALS. THIS SHOULD HOLD AT FOD/MCW/ALO OVERNIGHT...BUT
DSM/OTM ARE VERY CLOSE TO THE LOWER CIGS AROUND FL008-014 AND MAY
BE AFFECTED BY THEM AT TIMES BETWEEN NOW AND SUNRISE SO HAVE
COVERED THIS POSSIBILITY WITH TEMPOS. AFTER MID MORNING...CIGS
SHOULD RISE/DISSIPATE AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH NO PRECIP ANTICIPATED.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...LEE