000
FXUS63 KDMX 090501
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1201 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE APR 8 2014

AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED ACROSS ERN SD/NE AND CENTRAL KS
SHOULD BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE STATE TONIGHT...ALLOWING THE SFC PRES
GRADIENT TO SLACKEN. SFC RIDGE AXIS TO PASS THROUGH THE CWA BY LATE
EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AROUND SUNSET INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. RETURN FLOW
KICKS IN ALOFT...WITH SFC WINDS SHIFTING AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST BY
LATE TONIGHT AND STRONG WAA IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THIS ALONG WITH
SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE COULD RESULT IN SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
THE CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. ALSO EXPECT TEMPS TO
STEADY OFF AND POSSIBLY EVEN WARM A FEW DEGREES TOWARD SUNRISE WITH
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...WAA...AND POSSIBLE CLOUD COVER ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. OVERNIGHT TEMPS SHOULD DROP OFF FAIRLY
DECENT THIS EVENING WITH THE WINDS GOING LIGHT AND THE SFC TROUGH
AXIS MOVING OVERHEAD...THEREFORE STUCK WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE MID 30S
ACROSS THE CWA.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE APR 8 2014

IMMEDIATE CONCERNS FOR WED WILL BE FIRE DANGER DURING THE DAY...
ESPECIALLY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS WE WARM UP. THE GOOD NEWS IS WE
CONTINUE ON TRACK TO HAVE A RATHER WARM DAY. HIGHS WILL REACH THE
LOWER TO MID 70S WEST HALF WITH MID TO UPPER 60S EAST/SOUTHEAST.
THOUGH DEW POINTS DROP OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...SHOULD RECOVER A BIT IN
THE MORNING WED PRIOR TO MIXING. STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 25 PERCENT ACROSS THE
WEST HALF OF THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. AT THIS
POINT...LOOKS LIKE CONDITIONS ARE JUST SHY OF WARNING CRITERIA FOR
FIRE...BUT DEFINITELY WILL NEED AT LEAST AN SPS FOR HEIGHTENED
FIRE DANGER DURING TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE
QUICKLY AFTER 7 PM WITH RH QUICKLY RISING. MODELS SHOW MOISTURE
PLUME ADVECTING NORTH FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WED AFTERNOON WITH
VALUES INCREASING OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AFTER THE WARM DAY
TOMORROW A WEAK BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH INTO IOWA THURSDAY WITH SCT
SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS WITH SOME AGAIN FORCING AND MOISTURE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER TO
MID 60S BOTH DAYS. MODELS STILL ADVERTISING MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM
FOR THE WEEKEND WITH TWO PART SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. ALONG WITH THE CHANGE TO SW FLOW ALOFT...MUCH MORE
MOISTURE AND FORCING TO ARRIVE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE WEEKEND IS
BEGINNING TO LOOK RATHER WET. CHANCES FOR ELEVATED THUNDER
INCREASE SATURDAY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION ARRIVES WITH INCREASING
INSTABILITY. MODELS SHOW A BOUNDARY NEAR I80 CORRIDOR WITH WARM
READINGS SOUTH. STRONGER UPSTREAM WAVE TO ARRIVE SUNDAY TRACKING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST IOWA BY SUNDAY NIGHT. EURO/GEM HAVE BEEN MORE
CONSISTENT THE PAST FEW RUNS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE STORM. IF
THE SYSTEM EVOLVES IN THIS MANNER...PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN WOULD
BE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA MOST OF SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH 2 OR MORE
INCH TOTALS. GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY...WILL NOT GET TOO EXCITED
YET. AS THE SYSTEM PULLS OUT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY COLD ENOUGH
AIR MIXES IN BEHIND THE STORM TO MIX RAIN SNOW AT TIMES. BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE RATHER COOL. FOR NOW
WILL STICK WITH 40S AND 50S FOR HIGHS WITH THE COOLER READINGS ON
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE BY TUESDAY WITH SOME CLEARING
POSSIBLE BY LATE IN THE DAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES EAST OF
THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...09/06Z
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT TUE APR 8 2014

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM ERN KS INTO NERN MN WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
TAF SITES TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST BEFORE SUNRISE AND
INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING WEDNESDAY. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
THROUGH THE DAY WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 15 KTS IN THE EVENING. VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...COLD FRONT WILL ENTER IA LATE WED EVENING AND MOVE
THROUGH THE STATE B THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT AS WELL. THINKING NOW IS THAT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THURSDAY.

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...MS