022
FXUS63 KDMX 270535
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1235 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

 ...Updated for the 06z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms tracking east-southeastward through the state
  this afternoon into evening. Damaging winds and heavy rain are
  the main threats, though a tornado is possible mainly in
  northeastern Iowa.

- Thunderstorm activity moves out late tonight with dry
  conditions expected on Friday.

- Warm temperatures continue this weekend and next week with
  additional rain and thunderstorm chances through the second
  half of the weekend and at times next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 109 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Focus is on the developing activity this afternoon into evening.
Midday surface analysis has the warm front hanging out over northern
Iowa near the IA/MN border, continuing to become better defined with
time. The surface low is ejecting out of eastern SD/NW IA/SE MN and
will track across far northern IA/southern MN with time through the
afternoon and evening hours. Adjacent to the low is a cool front
extending southward through eastern NE and beyond. These features
will all be drivers of our showers and storms through the afternoon
and evening with storms having already been bubbling into midday
over portions of west central Iowa with some showers ongoing in
portions of northern Iowa and mostly clear skies to the east of the
bubbling storms/showers. The warm sector south and east of the two
boundaries is directly over the state where temperatures have warmed
into the 80s where precipitation is not ongoing, with very moist and
humid conditions as dew points are near-widespread in the 70s. This
has translated to instability values (MLCAPE) of 1000-2500 J/kg over
the area as of midday with soundings showing robust ECAPE values as
we get into later this afternoon as well. Wind shear over much of
central to southern Iowa remains weaker, but over north central into
far northern Iowa bulk wind shear is much better, 30-40 knots. The
farther north is also where LCLs are lowest and is generally where
the better tornado environment exists, but is also highly
conditional with rain ongoing over that same environment as of
midday. The triple point between the fronts and surface low will
remain a foci for any potential more discrete storms where the
tornado potential would be highest with initial storm
development given the low level CAPE and stretching potential in
that vicinity. The caveat is how this environment recovers
given the activity ongoing around midday. Further south along
the front, generally expecting more linear convection with more
broken storms the farthest south you go given the very weak
shear. For portions of central into northern Iowa, storms along
the line may pose a damaging wind threat, though will monitor
for any potential spin ups as well the further north you go
where the more favorable (though conditional) tornado
environment exists. Not really expecting much in the way of hail
given the overall environment, but some small, to maybe
isolated marginally severe hail could be possible if a more
robust storm is able to develop. Overall, storms are expected to
develop in western Iowa and track east to southeast with time
through the area, but CAMs are not necessarily capturing current
trends well so confidence is decreased in how convection plays
out through the afternoon. Besides the conditional tornado
threat north, and wind threat with the line, will also continue
to monitor our hydro situation as the environment remains
favorable for efficient rainfall, as it has the last several
days. Continue to expect 1-3" with localized higher 3"+ amounts,
though again midday activity may affect how the rest of the
afternoon/evening progress.

By late tonight, storms will have cleared the area with a surface
ridge moving over on Friday. This will bring a much-needed quiet day
in terms of weather back to the area. Waves moving through our
otherwise upper zonal flow will bring precipitation chances back to
the forecast at times later in the weekend (Saturday night into
Sunday) and again at times next week. Will continue to monitor the
threat for any severe weather with uncertainty remaining on where
storms may track into Sunday. Otherwise, temperatures remain warm in
the 80s to 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

As rain moves off to the east, the main concern for the rest of
tonight will be low clouds and fog potential. IFR ceilings
should be quickly entering MCW/FOD, and will eventually reach
ALO/DMX within a few hours. Models are not generally suggesting
that any fog less than 1SM will occur, but there is a 20-40%
chance for MVFR visibilities especially at MCW/DMX and lesser,
but non-zero chances at all other terminals. Any fog is expected
to lift and scatter out around 11z to 12z, and ceilings are
expected to be slower to lift and scatter, but eventually should
by mid-to-late morning with VFR conditions expected at all
terminals for the rest of the period. The low clouds moving in
will occur following a cold front, so expect wind direction to
shift to west/northwest within the next few hours. Speeds should
remain below 10 kt through the period.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 109 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

One final round of heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding is
expected today before at least a short break in precipitation on
Friday. However, as water is routed through the basins and river
systems, river flooding concerns will persist well into next week.

A broken line of storms is expected to develop along a cold front
this afternoon and move from west to east across much of the CWA
into this evening. As in past days, robust moisture content, high
freezing levels and ample instability will again lead to efficient
rain rates. However, this line of storms should be progressive,
moving eastward around 30 mph. Many of the global models and CAMs
are indicating widespread 1-2" rainfall amounts, but the progressive
nature of the storms should prevent rainfall amounts from getting
out of hand. The 26/12Z HREF 24hr PMM valid from 12z Thu to 12z
Fri shows this nicely, with only sporadic amounts over 3"
indicated.

Flash flooding is a concern with the rainfall this afternoon into
tonight however for now we have opted to not issue a flood watch for
flash flooding because we think the current flash flood guidance
(FFG) across our CWA is a little too low. Historically the FFG
starts having a tougher time capturing reality in our region during
this time of year, due to ag crops taking off in their growth. That
issue is admittedly tempered with the recent heavy rainfall, however
we still think the FFG is running a little low. Although some
isolated flash flooding is possible, at this time we do not believe
the flash flooding will become scattered (i.e., rise to the level of
needing a watch). If the storms this afternoon and evening do more
training than we presently expect, though, then the flash flood risk
would increase.

In terms of river flooding, we have returned to 24 hrs of QPF in our
river forecasts. The river forecast updates today do not have any
significant changes aside from some ups and downs within the same
category. The main reasons for the forecast changes are mainly QPE
vs QPF changes from last night was well as shifting of the QPF
locations for today. It should also be noted that for many locations
where action stage is forecast, those forecast crests are near flood
stage.

Due to increased confidence in the river flooding occurring, we have
issued river flood watches for those locations where river flooding
is forecast. The larger streams of most concern presently include
the Cedar, Winnebago and Raccoon Rivers. For some locations, the
elevated stages and river flooding is expected to continue well into
next week.

Additional rainfall is in the forecast for the Sunday timeframe.
This rainfall may be locally heavy and may impact area rivers.
Depending on the location of the rainfall, this rainfall has the
potential to result in quicker rises, slightly higher crests or
slower falls after the crests.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...DLH
HYDROLOGY...05/Zogg