Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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FXUS63 KDMX 050819
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
319 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SHORT TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

IOWA WILL BE ON BACKSIDE OF SIZABLE EASTERN LOW WITH LARGE UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. SURFACE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER
THE STATE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR CONDITIONS. THIS RIDGE WILL
SLIDE SOUTH TODAY WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING MOST
AREAS BY THIS AFTERNOON. THERMAL RIDGING ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL
ALSO BE BUILDING EASTWARD INTO THE STATE WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND
5 DEGREES WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME CLOUDS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING IN AN AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING THERMAL ADVECTION WITH EVEN A FEW
SPRINKLES JUST NORTHEAST OF THE STATE. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE STATE
WILL SEE MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH QUIET WEATHER.

.LONG TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

FORECAST CONCERNS REMAINED FOCUSED ON TEMPERATURES/DEW
POINTS/WINDS FRIDAY AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND ALLOWS FOR
WEAK RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP PRIOR TO 12Z FRIDAY ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA DUE TO THE WAA
BEGINNING BEFORE SUNRISE FRIDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS THE FAR
EASTERN REACHES WHERE RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. THE WAA CONTINUES TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING FRIDAY WITH DEEP MIXING TO AROUND 850MB DEVELOPING BY THE
AFTERNOON. WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES B/T +15C AND +18C...WINDS ATOP
THE MIXED LAYER IN THE 25-30 KNOT RANGE...AND DEW POINTS MIXING
OUT TO THE 40S/NEAR 50...ANTICIPATING A WARM AND WINDY DAY ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH ONGOING MAX TEMPS EXCEPT
NUDGED UP DSM SLIGHTLY DUE TO THE HEAT ISLAND.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN AGREEMENT WITH
WEAK COOL FRONT TO BRING SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION TO THE STATE LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY. VERY LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR
THE FRONT TO WORK WITH AND CONTINUE TO HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE LOW QPF/LOW POPS FOR THIS TIME FRAME. THE FRONT REMAINS
STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TO WESTERN IOWA THROUGH SUNDAY
BEFORE AN UPPER LOW MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND PUSHES IT
NORTHWARD BACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SOME THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH SUNDAY IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. THE
BETTER FORCING FOR ASCENT...THETA-E ADVECTION AND EVEN SOME
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES ARE DURING THIS AFOREMENTIONED TIME
OVER THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST. ANOTHER QUASI CUT-OFF LOW MOVES OUT
OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEGINNING TUESDAY AND
GRADUALLY CROSSES THE CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. SEVERAL PULSES OF ENERGY RIDE THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW
AND AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA. DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT ANY SPECIFIC
SHORTWAVE AS MODELS REMAIN IN GRAVE DISAGREEMENT AFTER MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION.../FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN EXPECTED THROUGH ENTIRETY OF TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY LIGHT
AND WESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY BY THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...CURTIS



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