Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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FXUS63 KDMX 221733
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1133 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WITH THE
NEXT IN THE SERIES OF FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DROPS
SOUTHEAST THROUGH ONTARIO ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT
OF NRN ALBERTA AND BRUSH NERN IA SATURDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY SUNDAY EVENING. JET STREAM WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS WILL THE
STORM TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TODAY DEALT WITH CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES. THE STRATUS DECK LOOKS TO GRADUALLY THIN OUT AND
DISSIPATE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND SHOULD SEE MORE SUNSHINE THAN
CLOUD COVER BY AROUND 19Z-20Z. BOTH THE HRRR AND HOPWRF HAVE
CLOUD COVER DISSIPATING B/T 18-21Z THIS AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHWEST
IOWA TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS COINCIDES WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTING OVER MUCH OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY AND ADVECTS IN SOME
DRIER AIR AND ALLOWS THE INVERSION TO WEAKEN. THUS...WENT SLIGHTLY
ABOVE PREVIOUS FORECAST OVER THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST WHERE THE
CLOUD COVER SHOULD CLEAR OUT A LITTLE SOONER. WENT CLOSER THE
MAVMOS/SREF FOR MAX TEMPS TODAY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015

NOT A LOT OF CHANGE WITH THE IDEAS OF THE MODELS FROM THE PAST FEW
DAYS INTO TODAY. WEATHER SYSTEM OUT OF ALBERTA WILL BRING A CHANCE
FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHEAST...WITH MOSTLY RAIN
OVER THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. NO REAL COLD AIR
FOLLOWING THE SYSTEM AND WILL SEE MILD LATE JANUARY WEATHER
CONTINUE.

A THIRD IN THE SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL PASS WELL TO
THE NORTH OF THE AREA FOR MID WEEK...BRINGING IN VERY MILD AIR.
TUE WILL BE QUITE WARM...MAINLY SOUTHWEST...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
WARMING ON WED. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING THE +16 AT H8 MAKING IT INTO
THE STATE. WENT WARMER THAN MOS AND MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF
OMS FORECASTS FOR WED. ALL SIGNS LOOK GOOD FOR GOOD WARMING OVER
NON-SNOW COVERED AREAS.

THE END OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN.
INDICATIONS POINT TO A STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR BY THE
WEEKEND...LIKELY RIVALING THE COLD OUTBREAK WE SAW THE WEEK OF
THE 5TH.

&&

.AVIATION...22/18Z
ISSUED AT 1133 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015

LOW STRATUS SHIELD CONTINUES TO BLANKET THE REGION AND IS
STUBBORNLY REFUSING TO MOVE OUT. THE BACK EDGE TO OUR WEST IS
MAKING SLOW PROGRESS...AND BELIEVE THAT ONCE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
MOVES OVERHEAD AND SURFACE FLOW INCREASES LATE TODAY/EARLY TONIGHT
AND CLOUDS WILL FINALLY CLEAR OUT. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
WHETHER THEY MAY STALL AFTER SUNSET AND LINGER IN OUR
EAST/SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...BUT FOR NOW HAVE CLEARED THEM OUT AFTER
SUNSET. IN ANY CASE THEY WILL AFFECT THE TERMINALS FOR THE FIRST
SIX HOURS OF THE TAFS WITH SLOWLY RISING MVFR CIGS...AND POSSIBLY
IFR AT MCW EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MS JAN 15
SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...MS JAN 15
AVIATION...LEE


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