Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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FXUS63 KDMX 252204
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
404 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 339 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

MAINLY QUIET CONDITIONS INITIALLY ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING...WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CWA IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE. FRONTAL ZONE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA...WITH
SOME WEAK LIFT SHOWING UP BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SOUNDINGS SHOW
SATURATION IN THE LOWER LEVELS WITHOUT ICE INTRODUCTION AND TEMPS
BELOW FREEZING. THEREFORE HAVE ADDED IN A MENTION OF PATCHY VERY
LIGHT FZDZ ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN CWA AFTER 09Z. LIFT IS VERY
WEAK...SO ICE ACCUMULATION NOT ANTICIPATED. REMAINDER OF THE CWA
SHOULD SEE DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS REMAINING MILD
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 339 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS UTAH TODAY WILL TRANSITION TO AN OPEN WAVE
ON FRIDAY AND LIFT QUICKLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION. THIS
SYSTEM WILL AID CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT
AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL IOWA ON FRIDAY. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE DEPTHS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 5 KFT BEHIND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THIS COMBINED WITH SOME WEAK LIFT WILL BRING LOW CHANCES
FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE INITIALLY. MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARRIVING AHEAD
OF THE UPPER WAVE WILL PROVIDE ICE INTRODUCTION BY THE AFTERNOON
AND WILL SWITCH THE PRECIPITATION CHANCE TO SNOW THOUGH IT SHOULD
NOT BE WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. FARTHER SOUTH...SOUTHERLY
FLOW WITH MOISTURE ORIGINATING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL ARRIVE
AND INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEPTHS THROUGH SOUTHEAST IOWA.
THIS WILL BE ANOTHER REGION WITH DRIZZLE POSSIBLE THE A GRADUAL
TRANSITION TO LIGHT RAIN AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. GOOD
KINEMATIC FORCING FROM THE PRIMARY UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL ARRIVE BY
FRIDAY EVENING AND WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE AREA WITH SNOW NORTHWEST TO RAIN AND SNOW CENTRAL AND RAIN
SOUTHEAST. COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE NIGHT WILL BRING THE SNOW
TRANSITION SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. LITTLE
CHANGE TO SNOW AMOUNTS WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE NORTHWEST WITH
AN INCH OR LESS CENTRAL AND LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS SOUTH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE IN THE MORNING WITH COLD
ADVECTION MOVING IN THROUGH THE DAY. POSSIBLE REBOUND IN THE
AFTERNOON THOUGH LIKELY NOT ABOVE EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES.

OVERALL GOOD CONTINUITY INTO THE WEEKEND AND MID NEXT WEEK. A DEEP
TROUGH WILL CARVE OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. AN UPPER LOW WILL CLOSE OFF ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN US
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND THIS WILL ENSURE A RELATIVELY COLD WEEK
ACROSS IOWA. THE COLDEST DAY STILL LIKELY TO BE TUESDAY WITH SOME
WEAK WARM ADVECTION ARRIVING FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...25/18Z
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW...WITH CLOUD
BASES LOWERING THROUGH THE PERIOD. HAVE BROUGHT A FEW NORTHERN
TAF SITES DOWN INTO THE MVFR RANGE...AND GUIDANCE/MODELS SUGGEST
POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER LOWERING TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.
ALSO HINTS THAT SOME FZDZ IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH VERY
LATE IN THE PERIOD...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND MAY HAVE TO
INTRODUCE IF CERTAINTY INCREASES.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...BEERENDS



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