Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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000
FXUS63 KDMX 191148
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
649 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WITH LITTLE MORE
THAN A WIND SHIFT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH MID WEEK

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BECOME PRONOUNCED ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN
WEST AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE DROPS DOWN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO
THE GREAT LAKES.  THIS WILL ESTABLISH A NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE STATE.  WITHIN THE BROADER FLOW THERE WILL BE SEVERAL
WEAKER SHORTWAVES PASSING ACROSS IOWA TODAY.  WEAK FORCING WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE WAVES HOWEVER MOISTURE OVER THE AREA IS VERY
POOR SO I AM NOT REALLY EXPECTING MORE THAN MID OR HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER.  THERE ARE HOWEVER POCKETS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SO THERE MAY
ALSO BE PATCHY SCT/BKN LOWER CLOUDS AS WELL.  NOT REALLY SEEING THE
CLOUDS AS HAVING A HUGE IMPACT ON TEMPS GIVEN THEY WILL MAINLY BE
HIGH CLOUDS HOWEVER IF A LOWER CLOUD DECK SHOULD DEVELOP OVER AN
AREA IT COULD...AT LEAST BRIEFLY...IMPACT TEMPS.  I GENERALLY WENT
ABOVE GUIDANCE MOST LOCATIONS THOUGH GIVEN THE MAINLY
SOUTHERLY/WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND.

THERE IS ALSO A BROAD AREA OF THETA-E ADVECTION THAT WILL SHIFT
ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN IOWA THROUGH 18Z BUT AGAIN...THE
LACK OF APPRECIABLE MOISTURE WILL KEEP PRECIP OUT OF THE FORECAST
AND JUST SOME CLOUDS IN.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

QUIET WEATHER FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THE PATTERN. IT WILL BRING SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR TO
THE STATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY OVERT HE NORTHEAST.

TEMPS WILL REBOUNDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM OUT OF
THE ROCKIES. DECENT THETA-E AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT. SOUNDINGS
"ONION PEEL" ON THU WITH PWAT OVER AN INCH AND A QUARTER. TIMING OF
THE EVENT IS CONSISTENT AMONG THE MODELS AND ALL AGREE ON A HIGH
QPF...BUT NOT REAL HEAVY...RAINFALL EVENT. UPPED POPS TO 40S AND
50S. WOULD EXPECT THESE WILL NEEDED TO BE RAISED IN LATER
FORECASTS. QPF FROM THIS EVENT IS LIKELY TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE.
CONSIDERED THE MENTION OF THUNDER...HOWEVER THERE IS ONLY A VERY
NARROW WINDOW AND IN SPITE OF THE STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION...THERE ISN`T
MUCH SPEED CONVERGENCE ON THE LLJ AND ELEVATED CAPE IS UNDER 100
J/KG.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS QUIET AND MILD AS THE AIRMASS BEHIND
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IS PACIFIC IN NATURE AND TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...19/12Z
ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE FCST PERIOD THROUGH 23Z BEFORE
BECOMING SKC. SFC WIND WILL BE SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE TO 15G22KTS
BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER 20/00Z.  A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
APPROACH THE TAF LOCATIONS AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
BRINGING WINDS AROUND TO THE NW LATE IN THE FCST.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MS
SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...MS
AVIATION...FAB


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