Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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FXUS63 KDMX 251139
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
639 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

OVERNIGHT SYSTEM IS SHIFTING TO THE EAST WITH A WIDESPREAD AREA OF
STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE STATE. LOCALIZED DENSE FOG IS
POSSIBLE HOWEVER IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO
WARRANT AN ADVISORY. BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST
WHERE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD. SFC BOUNDARY
ALREADY APPROACHING FAR NORTHWEST IOWA WITH VISIBILITIES IMPROVING
QUICKLY WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS ALREADY
MOVING EAST/SOUTHEAST OUT OF WYOMING WITH MID LEVEL FORCING ARRIVING
INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA BY MID TO LATE MORNING. DRY AIR FROM SUBSIDENCE
REGION OF THE OVERNIGHT SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED THROUGH
NORTHERN IOWA AND WILL KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE SOUTH.
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL EXIST MAINLY INTERSTATE 80 AND SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE COOLED HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND MAY STILL BE
TOO OPTIMISTIC GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 40S. COLD ADVECTION WILL ARRIVE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TO FALL FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

EXTENDED WILL GENERALLY BE MARKED BY COOLER CONDITIONS THROUGH END
OF WEEK...WITH A WARM UP COMING LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A FEW PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS
WELL...PRIMARILY IN THE WEST. BEHIND RETREATING LOW PRESSURES
SYSTEM TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS AREA AND DEEPEN THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH SOUTH BRINGING MUCH
COOLER...AND BELOW NORMAL...TEMPERATURES. COLDEST DAYS WILL BE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING OFF SHARPLY AT
NIGHT. WINDS LOOK TO STAY UP OVERNIGHT HOWEVER...AND HAVE KEPT
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ABOVE GOING. HOWEVER...CAA WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND MAY BE TOO WARM. WAVE DROPS SOUTH ACROSS
EASTERN NEBRASKA THURSDAY NIGHT AND HAVE KEPT POPS OUT FOR NOW
WITH BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE WEST. HOWEVER...AS HIGH
PULLS EAST WAVE WILL PUSH EAST AS WELL...WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASING IN THE WEST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...DO NOT HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE GIVEN AMOUNT OF DRY AIR
NOTED IN SOUNDINGS NEAR SURFACE...AND HAVE JUST KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCES AND CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES BUT HAVE
KEPT GENERALLY RAIN/SNOW AND SNOW.

AS HIGH PUSHES EAST WAA WILL RETURN BEGINNING SATURDAY AS RIDGE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DROP THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION DROPPING A BOUNDARY ACROSS IOWA SUNDAY. GIVEN
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WAA AHEAD OF BOUNDARY MAY BE TOO COOL FOR
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF
SYSTEM. STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH AMOUNT OF MOISTURE THAT IS
AVAILABLE...AND HAVE KEPT POPS PRIMARILY CONFINED TO THE NORTH
WITH BEST MOISTURE. TIMING OF PRECIPITATION WILL DETERMINE
PRECIPITATION TYPE...THOUGH GENERAL RAIN OR SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX
EXPECTED ATTM. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THEN FOR END OF PERIOD WITH
STRONG WAA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR END OF PERIOD
BEGINNING SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...25/12Z
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

WIDESPREAD LIFR TO IFR STRATUS AND FOG IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING AS A BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TO GUSTY FROM THE NW WITH FROPA.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY THIS AFTERNOON NORTH. A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE VICINITY OF KDSM AND KOTM THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS. VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST OVERNIGHT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...AWB
AVIATION...DONAVON



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