Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 042130
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
530 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1105 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY EARLY
TONIGHT AS CONDITIONS STABILIZE. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VERY WARM
THROUGH LABOR DAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN
AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. LOWS THE NEXT
THREE NIGHTS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 522 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

ONGOING CONVECTION WAS SUPPORTED BY THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER THE
AREA. DAYTIME HEATING HAD CAUSED CAPE VALUES TO RISE TO BETWEEN 2000
AND 3000 J/KG. OVERALL BULK SHEAR WAS WEAK...WITH WITH LARGE
CAPES/INSTABILITY...EXPECT ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED
DAMAGING WINDS WHERE STORMS ARE ABLE TO BETTER ORGANIZE.
OTHERWISE... CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND AS THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES FROM THE COOLING FROM THE STORMS. THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN SATURDAY...BUT THERE STILL SHOULD BE
ENOUGH AFTERNOON INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED STORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 522 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LABOR DAY WITH
AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES RISING INTO THE LOWER AND MID 90S AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE LINGERS OVER THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THESE
HEAT INDICES IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. FOR THE REST OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD...THERE WAS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING
THE EVOLUTION OF THE WEATHER SYSTEMS LATE NEXT WEEK IN REGARDS TO
THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AND THE ARRIVAL OF COOL AIR. FOR THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE...KEPT THE GENERAL ONGOING TIMING OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS FROM LATE MONDAY INTO THURSDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
RAIN ABOUT TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. FRIDAY SHOULD BE THE COOLEST
DAY OF THE FORECAST GIVEN THE ARRIVAL OF A SECOND SURGE OF COOL AIR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 649 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

CLEARING SKIES IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER CONVECTION ACROSS
MICHIGAN...NORTHWEST OHIO AND FAR NORTHEAST INDIANA HAS ALLOWED
FOG TO FORM WITH THE DENSEST COVERAGE NORTH OF A KOXI-KDUH LINE.
PATCHY FOG ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS LINE. EXPECT IFR CIGS AT KSBN
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT THIS WILL MIX OUT AFTER SUNRISE. WITH
THE PROXIMITY OF THE REMNANT SHORTWAVE/CONVECTION OVER LAKE
ERIE...ISOLD -TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO TRIGGER AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES. WIDESPREAD AND ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED.
GUSTY WINDS ARE THE GREATEST RISK/THREAT. OTHERWISE - WINDS
CONTINUE LIGHT AND AND VARY ONLY SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...LEWIS


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