Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 072014
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
414 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL END ACROSS THE AREA LATER
THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA. A COOLER
NIGHT IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT WITH VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. WEDNESDAY WILL START OUT DRY
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURNING TO THE AREA
LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

COLD FRONT CONTINUING TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH LITTLE REMAINING INSTABILITY ALONG/AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY...WENT WITH AN ISO T MENTION THROUGH 00Z ACROSS THE FAR
SE FORECAST AREA.

FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...WITH PRECIP GRADUALLY
ENDING THROUGH MIDNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SKY COVER WILL VARY FROM MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PART OVERNIGHT. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS MIN T FORECAST
FOR TONIGHT...STILL EXPECTING LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MIGRATE BACK NORTH INTO THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY...IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE EJECTING
NE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FORECAST REFLECTS A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
POPS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. DECENT
MOISTURE RETURN IS NOTED INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE BEST FORCING WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST OF
THE AREA UNTIL AFTER 00Z. THEREFORE...WENT WITH POPS IN THE CHANCE
RANGE THROUGH 00Z.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

POTENT SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE OVR W TX THIS AFTN WILL
LIFT OUT INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES WED NIGHT. AGGRESSIVE THETA-E
ADVTN NWD OF POLEWARD OF 50KT LLJ SHLD PROMOTE VIGOROUS ASCENT
OVERTOP NWD RTNG FNTL BNDRY AND XPC WIDESPREAD RAIN/EMBEDDED
THUNDER AS A RESULT. THUS BRIDGED POPS HIGHER ALL AREAS
W/POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN ESP SHLD CLOSED LOW
LVL CYCLONIC CIRC INDEED DVLP AS MANY MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW.

OTRWS THIS SYS QUICKLY EXISTS NEWD ON THU AND MINORS OUT IN
PREVAILING DOWNSTREAM ZONAL FLW. DIFFICULT TEMP FCST W/LINGERING BUT
DECAYING CLD CVR IN THE AFTN AND POST FNTL CAA WEDGE YET KEPT
W/PRIOR NOTION OF GENERALLY MID 70S.

BRIEF LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING FOLLOWS THROUGH FRI BFR GIVING WAY TO
ANOTHER SW DISTURBANCE EJECTING NEWD OUT OF WRN US TROUGH. POP
DETAILS REMAIN QUITE MURKY FM MID-LT PD W/SIG DETAIL DIFFS NOTED AMG
MED RANGE GUIDANCE SUITE. AS SUCH ESSENTIALLY SMOOTHED BLENDED
SOLUTION TO ELIMINATE NOISE BUT RETAIN OTRWS IMPLIED UNSETTLED TONE
ESP IN LIGHT OF PENCHANT FOR A RING OF FIRE PATTN TO DVLP ALG NE
PERIPHERY OF RETROGRADING UPR RIDGE. WITHIN THIS
TRANSITION...SEASONABLE WARM TEMPS XPCD TO RTN THIS WEEKEND AND
BEYOND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTHEAST OF KSBN EARLY THIS AFTN...W/ DRIER
AIR AND CLEARING SKIES PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE TERMINAL OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. ANY LINGERING MVFR CONDITIONS AT KSBN WILL QUICKLY
BECOME VFR BY 20Z. COLD FRONT IS JUST NOW PUSHING THROUGH
KFWA...WITH CONTINUED -SHRA THROUGH 21Z. WHILE PREDOMINANTLY MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KFWA THROUGH THE NEXT TAF ISSUANCE AT
00Z...UPSTREAM OBS HINT THAT A FEW PERIODS OF IFR CIGS POSSIBLE
UNTIL THEN...THEREFORE WENT WITH TEMPO IFR IN TAFS. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD...VEERING
EASTERLY LATE IN THE PERIOD.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ003.

MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NG
SHORT TERM...NG
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...NG


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