Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 280712

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
312 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2016

Issued at 312 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2016

An upper level low will cut off over the region providing mostly
cloudy skies and chances for rain showers today through Saturday.
There will also be a chance for an isolated thunderstorm and
heavier rain showers each afternoon. Highs through the weekend will
generally be in the 60s, with lows in the 50s. Warmer and drier
conditions are expected to return to the area by early next week
as this system finally lifts out.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 312 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2016

Cool, mostly cloudy, and wet at times through Friday...

Pronounced vort lob and 100 kt 300mb jet dropping through on the
ssw periphery of Northern Lakes parent low will help re-focus deep
tropospheric circulation south into northern Indiana by this
afternoon...with the center of this stacked low then wobbling into
far southern IN and KY later tonight through Friday.

Round of height falls/mid lvl DCVA with the aforementioned vort lob
dropping in from the Upper Midwest should aid in strengthening low-
mid lvl baroclinic zone on ene fringe of this low into mainly our
IN/sw Lower MI counties early this morning and into the rest of the
forecast area thereafter. Scattered to numerous rain showers should
accompany this feature, especially into ne IN/nw OH later this
morning/early afternoon given good low level moisture transport.
Could even see some embedded thunder/heavy rain showers later this
morning/afternoon across mainly ne IN/nw OH where sfc dewpoints
increase into the low-mid 50s under incoming cold pocket aloft. Any
storms that do develop may contain small hail given lowering
freezing levels.

Good Atlantic moisture within warm conveyor belt will arch back into
deformation zone across the lower Great Lakes later tonight through
Friday as low pressure center cuts off into the OH/TN Valleys.
Clouds and good chances for several rounds of rain will result.
Precipitation coverage/intensity/timing will be tied to smaller
scale vorts rotating around the primary circulation. Also should see
an uptick in coverage/intensity during the diurnal instability
maximum each afternoon if area is not in a negative vorticity
advection region in wake of one of the aforementioned vort maxes.
Did add a slight chance for thunder both Thursday/Friday afternoon
given better low level moisture profiles and weak instability shown
in the last several model cycles. Otherwise...highs generally in the
60s and lows in the low-mid 50s through Friday.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 312 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2016

Upper low center will finally kick northeast through the local area
Saturday and into the northeast US thereafter as it finally gets
ingested into northern stream energy dropping through southeast
Canada. The precipitation pattern should be more
scattered/spotty/diurnally driven under the upper low Saturday, with
dry conditions expected Sunday into early next week as ridging
overspreads in its wake.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 110 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2016

Strong vort max over ern IA digging into base of upr trof expected
to cause upr low over the U.P. dropping south into nrn IN with
accompanying sfc low development. This should result in sct shra
developing over the area this morning and contg through the
remainder of the taf period. Aviation flight conditions expected
to respond by grdly lowering to low mvfr by this eve.


LM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LMZ043-046.



SHORT TERM...Steinwedel
LONG TERM...Steinwedel

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