Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 231221

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
821 AM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017

Issued at 817 AM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017

Temperatures will rebound rapidly today after a cold start in many
areas, reaching the middle 60s by late afternoon. Even warmer
temperatures are expected Monday and Tuesday with highs into the
70s for most locations. The chance for showers and thunderstorms
returns by Wednesday night.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 817 AM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017

Warm and dry this period as expansive sfc ridge overhead persists.
Low level thermal trough will continue to moderate especially on
Monday and no doubt aided by late April sun. Will bump blends both
today and Monday as temps should over achieve much like Sunday aftn.


.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 817 AM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017

Unsettled/stormy pattern shaping up esp mid to late period as well advertised
pac wave train emerges into the pac nw. While specific model based vagaries
still persist general theme remains intact with lead sw ejecting through the
upper midwest Tue. Ewd frontal progression has waffled considerably for several
days but trending guidance leans wwd in reflection to blocking closed low
pivoting up the mid atlantic coast. Thus see all the more reason to finally cut
out pops entirely sans far west late Tue night.

Secondary more energetic sw digs quickly in behind into wrn MO by late Wed and
will drive cold front through the area Wed night with what should be a widespread
rain event for much of the area given implied vigorous frontal wave lifting up
the boundary Wed evening and may also entail some severe risk Wed evening given
strong undirectional flow within modest low level rtn theta-e ridge.

Brief ridging/cooling follows Thu into Fri ahead of wwd significant deep layered
cyclone development across CO Fri night. Ewd flood of significant gulf moisture
influx expected and should ignite ewd reach of returning warm frontal zone through
much of the OH valley before it mixes nwd through the lakes Sat. Beyond that
timing and placement of this newd ejecting 3rd deep system remains in flux with
as yet still significant spread indicated toward DY8 (Sunday).

Regardless the entirety of the period will feature well above normal temps
sans post frontal cold advection regime Thu.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 651 AM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017

Weak high pressure will keep VFR conditions through the TAF
period. Winds should remain under 10 knots.




LONG TERM...Fisher

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