Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 171927

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
227 PM EST Wed Jan 17 2018

Issued at 1240 PM EST Wed Jan 17 2018

Drier and warmer conditions will dominate the remainder of the
week into Saturday, before rain chances return. Afternoon highs
today will reach the upper teens to lower 20s. Highs by the
weekend will climb into the 40s.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 225 PM EST Wed Jan 17 2018

Quiet weather in the short term as dome of high pressure builds into
the area. Recent snow pack has kept temperatures cool this
afternoon despite plentiful sunshine. Winds overnight will slow
down the radiational cooling tonight and should keep temperatures
in the teens tonight and then warm air advections tomorrow warming
to near 30s.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 225 PM EST Wed Jan 17 2018

Warming trend into the weekend with a west/southwest flow bringing
warm moist air into the area. Temps into the 40s this weekend with
dew points in the upper 30s should melt the recent snow pack across
the cwa. Bumped temps up slightly Sat and Sun to account for strong
southerly flow.

Wave of energy still off the pacific coast moves onshore on Friday
digging its way into the SW CONUS. Center of low pressure system
tracks to our northwest and warm front passes through the CWA on
Sunday afternoon. Adjusted threshold for all snow down to get all
rain in the forecast. Strong low level warm air advection warm temps
near the surface to above freezing at the onset of precip. Heavy
rain likely Sunday night into Monday as the main plume of moisture
passes through the area which may lead to flooding concerns due to
snow melt and frozen ground. At this time strongest forcing remains
to our west but a shift east with the storm track is still possible.
Better idea of the storm track once the system moves onshore and
can be sampled better.

Colder air gets wrapped around the low pressure as it exits to our
north which will transition rain into a snow with a possible lake
enhancement late Monday. Chance of some lake effect snow into mid
next week.|


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1237 PM EST Wed Jan 17 2018

High pressure will dominate conditions through the period with
little more than some passing high clouds. Southwesterly winds
will persist and may become gusty late in the period through after
18Z Thurs.




SHORT TERM...Heidelberger
LONG TERM...Heidelberger

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