Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 231826

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
226 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016

Issued at 120 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016

Breezy conditions are in store for the region through this evening,
with winds gusting up to 25 mph as a cold front moves through.
Otherwise, a quiet night is expected, with lows in the 40`s.
Monday will be dry with highs in the 50`s and low 60`s.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 214 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016

Compact shortwave will move through the northern Great Lakes into
tonight. Rain was covering much of the U.P of Michigan with more
widely scattered showers into northern Lower Michigan. Further
south, effects of the wave will more limited, mainly in the form
of increased clouds overnight, breezy conditions this afternoon
and evening and maybe a chance for some light lake effect rain
showers after 6z as delta t`s drop to around 13 C with a NW fetch.
Several negatives for measurable precip with the lake effect
including low inversion heights, lack of deep moisture and limited
residence time given NW flow. Will maintain no more than 14 pops
for now and defer to eve shift to see if more materializes
upstream than current depicted by hi res models.

Otherwise forecast will become tranquil as cold front pushes
through the area, trimming about 10 degrees off of today highs for
expected afternoon temps on Monday.


.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 214 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016

Focus remains on approaching system to move out of the Dakotas
towards the region. Best chance for rainfall has been pushed back
somewhat with mainly NW areas seeing chances increase Weds
afternoon and then across the entire area Weds night. Have
expanded slight chance of thunder to all areas Weds night with at
least some instability to allow for an embedded storm or 2.

Trough lingers into Friday, but deeper moisture should be shunted
east with the main energy. This should result in a brief dry
period Thursday afternoon into Friday before another wave drops in
and brings chances of showers back. Temperatures will stay
seasonable in the wake of the mid week trough.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 120 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016

The forecast for late this afternoon-overnight looks on track,
with a cold front expected to cross the region through the evening
hours. Southwest winds could gust up to 25 mph this afternoon,
switching to the west-northwest as the front passes by this
evening. Dry, VFR conditions are expected despite the presence of
the front, with the potential for some lower end VFR ceilings at
KSBN, maybe even high end MVFR, due to the north-northwesterly
fetch off Lake Michigan by Monday morning.


LM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Monday for LMZ043-046.



LONG TERM...Fisher

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