Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 251016

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
616 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2016

Issued at 458 AM EDT Mon Jul 25 2016

Just a low chance of showers and thunderstorms will exist today
along and south from about Lima, Ohio to Marion, Indiana.
Otherwise a noticeable trend toward more seasonable temperatures
with lesser humidity will begin and provide welcome relief to the
oppressive heat of the past several days. The humidity will return
later in the week, along with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms from Thursday into the weekend.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 445 AM EDT Mon Jul 25 2016

Stabilization beneath decaying stratiform 150-300 j/kg MLCIN
throughout forecast area this morning with primary focus shifted
well southwest with well developed mesoscale convective complex in
vicinity of KSTL. Have relegated mention of additional early am
tsra to slight chance save for far nern cwa with exiting storms
that earlier this morning exhibited supercell characteristics with
mesoscale convective vorticy giving amplification to otherwise
weak 20-30 kts effective layer shear. Only low end concern within
overturned airmass that far sern forecast area on trailing edge of
midday/early afternoon destabilization with weak/shallow
convective development along latent outflow and/or differential
heating gradient...along cold frontal boundary dropping sewd.
Better focus appears to be farther southeast today as mid level
height fall centroid pushes into Lower Great Lakes with prefrontal
trof focus extending sewd into southern Indiana. Added patchy fog
mention along/se of Maumee/Wabash basins where anticipate lagged
surface dewpoints/relative high xover temperatures collocated with
near optimal radiational cooling overnight as NE/IA centered
surface ridge builds eastward into forecast area.


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 445 AM EDT Mon Jul 25 2016

Little change in long term forecast afforded by latest blends.
Retrogression of subtropical ridge from TX panhandle to srn NV/srn
CA to promote central CONUS troffing by midweek with PAC NW wave
train providing weak plains/wrn grtlks height falls and subsequent
weak plains cyclogenesis about midweek. Initial moisture return
circuitous around CWA, with eventual push of upper 60s/lower 70s
surface dewpoints by DY4. Chance tsra pops appears centered on
DY4/5, though with upstream trof persisting into the weekend, have
little confidence in removal of lower/slight chance mention through
the weekend at this time.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 606 AM EDT Mon Jul 25 2016

Cdfnt still movg through ne IL/sw MI but moisture has dried out
ahead of it and behind a pre-frontal trof movg into nw OH. Thus,
expect fropa to be dry at the terminals today and vfr conditions
to cont. High pressure will build into the area behind the front
tonight. Light winds and clear skies will promote good radiational
cooling, psbly leading to patchy ground fog toward daybreak,
hwvr, questionable if sufficient boundary layer moisture will
remain to allow for fog to impact terminals, so held off adding to
tafs attm.


.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


LONG TERM...Murphy

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