Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 252110
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
410 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING SNOW TO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. WINDS
GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH WILL CAUSE SNOW TO BLOW AND
DRIFT...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST. OTHERWISE...LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS TONIGHT. MONDAY WILL BE
QUIET...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

THE PRECIPITATION HAS BECOME ALL SNOW OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM THE NORTHEAST BEHIND A COLD
FRONT. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN WELL INTO THE 20S SINCE THE MORNING
FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST. RAISED WIND
SPEEDS GIVEN HI RES MODEL TRENDS AND CURRENTS OBSERVATIONS.
SUSTAINED WINDS HAD INCREASED BEHIND THE FRONT TO AROUND 20 MPH WITH
SOME GUSTS OVER 30 MPH. STILL EXPECT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 5
INCHES COMBINED WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH
OF FT WAYNE. LESSER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED OVER FAR NORTHERN
INDIANA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...FARTHER AWAY FROM THE
DEFORMATION ZONE. BLOWING SNOW WAS REPORTED AT FT WAYNE ON THE
OFFICIAL AIRPORT OBSERVATION AT 3 PM. SNOWFALL WAS ALREADY NEARING 2
INCHES OVER CENTRAL MIAMI COUNTY IN THE VICINITY OF THE DEFORMATION
ZONE. 6 HOUR WATER EQUIVALENT AT GRISSOM ENDING AT 1 PM WAS NEARLY A
QUARTER OF AN INCH...SO ALL CONSIDERED...RAISED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
JUST A LITTLE OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA WHERE 3 TO 5
INCHES OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED FROM PORTLAND TO LIMA. OTHERWISE...MUCH
COLDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH MORE CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA
LATE MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

SHRTWV OVER NRN ALBERTA THIS AFTN IS EXPECTED TO SHEAR OUT AS IT
DROPS SE ACROSS OUR AREA MON NGT BRINGING A CHC OF LIGHT SNOW TO WRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TUE-TUE NGT
PROVIDING FAIR WX WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS. TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSE
TO NORMAL DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS TO L20S AND
HIGHS M20S-L30S... COLDEST EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA WHICH WILL BE
DEEPER INTO THE COLD AIR AND WHERE THERE IS A BETTER CHC FOR
NIGHTTIME CLEARING.

NEXT SHRTWV TO MOVE INTO THE OH VALLEY FROM THE WEST ON THU SHOULD
CAUSE A VARIETY OF PRECIP TYPES IN OUR AREA INCLUDING RAIN/SNOW AND
PSBLY A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. MODEST CAA BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD LEAD TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS FRIDAY WITH GENERALLY FAIR WX AS
RIDGING BUILDS IN (JUST A SLIGHT CHC OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
NW).

12Z GFS CONTS TO SHUNT BULK OF ARCTIC AIRMASS OFF TO OUR NE INTO NEW
ENGLAND NEXT WEEKEND WHILE ECMWF HAS REMAINED PRETTY CONSISTENT MOVG
ARCTIC FRONT ACCOMPANIED BY LIGHT SNOW INTO THE GRTLKS SATURDAY.
USED MODEL CONSENSUS TEMPS... JUST SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL OVER THE
WEEKEND... BUT GIVEN SUCH LARGE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL DIFFERENCES
(ABOUT 25C AT H85 BY SUNDAY EVE)... SGFNT ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED
FOR THIS TIMEFRAME OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 106 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

THE PRECIPITATION HAS BECOME ALL SNOW AT BOTH TERMINALS WITH
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM THE NORTHEAST. HAVE ADDED THE
MENTION OF BLOWING SNOW AT FT WAYNE WITH STRONGER WINDS EXPECTED.
OTHERWISE...HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TIMING OF THE
SNOW AND THE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR INZ026-
     027-032>034.

MI...NONE.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR OHZ015-
     016-024-025.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MCD
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...SKIPPER


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