Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 192052

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
352 PM EST Thu Jan 19 2017

Issued at 350 PM EST Thu Jan 19 2017

A very mild period is ahead with temperatures 15 to 30 degrees
above normal, especially this weekend. Highs should be well into
the 50s this weekend. In addition to the mild pattern, rain is
expected tonight with amounts between a half inch and one inch.
Locally higher amounts are possible causing rises on area rivers
and possible flooding.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 346 PM EST Thu Jan 19 2017

Multiple forecast challenges prevail in the short term including
potential fog development and locally heavy rainfall. At the onset,
very moist air was spreading north ahead of an upper level system
over the Mid Mississippi Valley. Precipitable water values are
forecast to be near seasonal climatological maxes topping 1.10
inches tonight. Given upper level support and very impressive low
level forcing/moisture flux, have ramped up rainfall amounts
tonight. The GFS, ECMWF and some high res WPC models favor amounts
around or above 1 inch. In addition to the rain, fog development
is likely as low level moisture flux increases tonight. Fog is
also expected again Friday night ahead of the warm front.


.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 346 PM EST Thu Jan 19 2017

Overall, a very mild pattern for the latter half of January will
persist through the middle of next week. There is virtually no
lingering support for a deep upper low advertised by earlier model
runs that just two days ago were tracking across the Midwest early
next week. GFS and GFS/ensembles all favor a more suppressed
southern track of this system, keeping the bulk of the
precipitation well south of the forecast area. Even with this
track, the mild pattern will continue through Wednesday.
Temperatures will be closing in on record highs this weekend.
Record highs around 60 to 65 and warmest lows around 45 degrees
this weekend will also be challenged.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1202 PM EST Thu Jan 19 2017

IFR due to low ceilings and visibilities will continue for this
afternoon. A gradual improvement may occur bringing conditions to
MVFR for a short period by 00z prior to the onset of rain. Rain
moves in tonight bringing flight conditions back down to IFR and
will remain IFR for the remainder of the forecast period.




SHORT TERM...Skipper
LONG TERM...Skipper

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