Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 230946
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED LONG TERM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
545 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS
WESTERN INDIANA THIS EVENING. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER
50S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

FOG WAS BECOMING RATHER EXTENSIVE ACROSS THE AREA AS CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS WAS ALLOWING FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. ENOUGH LOCATIONS
HAVE DROPPED TO ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS IN NE QUARTER OR SO TO
WARRANT HOISTING DENSE FOG ADVISORY. MAY NEED TO EXPAND WITH
TIME...BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS FOR NOW. ONCE ANY FOG BURNS OFF A
PLEASANT DAY WILL BE ON TAP AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION WITH THE MAIN AXIS TO EXTEND FROM ONTARIO TO CENTRAL OHIO
BY 00Z FRI. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION WERE
RESPONSIBLE FOR A BAND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS EXTENDING FROM
THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA SOUTH TO IOWA AND NEBRASKA. MAJORITY OF
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHIFT THIS EAST BUT EVENTUALLY SHEAR OUT THE
WAVE AS DEEP UPR LOW OFF THE EAST COAST BRINGS THE FLOW TO A HALT
AND KEEP DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. HAVE
TRENDED POPS DOWNWARD THIS EVENING AND GAVE MORE TEMPORAL DETAIL.
WAS TEMPTED TO DROP CHANCES TO SLGT CHC IN THE EVENING IN FAR WEST
BUT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST AT LEAST A SMALL WINDOW OF LIGHT
PRECIP BEING POSSIBLE. CHANCES WILL DIMINISH WITH EASTWARD EXTENT.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND NICELY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS
THE AREA WITH LOWS TONIGHT DROPPING BACK INTO THE 40S COURTESY OF
MODEST WAA AND CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

PATTN OPENS INTO ZONAL FLW REGIME THIS PD ACRS THE CONUS WHICH
RESULTS IN A VIGOROUS MODERATION IN TEMPS ESP IN LTR PDS. TO START
POTENT JET STREAM AND ASSOCD SW DISTURBANCE DRIVING EWD INTO BC OFF
THE NEPAC WILL CREST FLAT WRN US RIDGE FRI AND DIG SEWD THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WK CDFNT TO BACKDOOR
INTO THE AREA ON SUN W/MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS XPCD. HWVR LINGERING CP
AIRMASS VOID OF MSTR AND XPC NO SENSIBLE WX TO RESULT AS PARENT WAVE
TRANSLATES THROUGH ONTARIO LT FRI NIGHT/SAT AM.

OTRWS NEW TROUGHING OUT WEST AND INCREASING SWRLY FLW ALOFT LOOKS TO
BRING A SHOT OR RAIN LT TUE. RELIED ON A BLEND OF POP GUIDANCE WHICH
FIT BTR W/BOTH CONTINUITY AND SURROUNDING OFFICES TUE-WED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 141 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

STRATOCU DECK HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS THE AREA. THE CLEARING
COMBINED WITH MOIST CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
SET THE STAGE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY AROUND KFWA WHICH
HASN`T HAD A CHANCE TO MIX OUT ALL THE MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINS
DUE TO CLOUDS. HAVE HELD WITH MVFR FOR NOW AT BOTH SITES...BUT
CAN`T RULE OUT SOME WIDELY VARIABLE VSBYS AT KFWA THAT COULD
IMPINGE ON IFR. WHILE THIS MAY OCCUR...ANY FOG SHOULD BE SHALLOW.

SKIES WILL CLEAR WITH VFR CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS TOWARDS
00Z/FRI WITH A CHANCE FOR A FEW SPRINKLES OR A LIGHT SHOWER AT
KSBN. NOT WORTHY OF ANY MENTION AT THIS POINT.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ006>009.

MI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ079>081.

OH...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ001-002-
     004-005.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...FISHER


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